Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[omg48] 08/6/2020 16:33

I am doing extremely well with TW shares but regret not buying Royal Caribbean when I posted some months back when they were 20$. Current share price 72%. Could say I missed the boat :-(

[uknighted] 08/6/2020 16:10

Email received today.

Business update

ii round-up:

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) reported a rise in reservations over recent weeks as sales and show homes had begun to reopen from mid-May following Covid-19 lockdowns.

Construction recommenced across most of its English and Welsh sites in early May as lockdown restrictions eased, with sales and show homes reopening in England for pre-booked appointments only from 22 May. Operations had shut on the 24 March.

Taylor Wimpey shares rose by more than 2% following this latest update, having fallen by more than 10% year-to-date. Its shares rose by more than 40% during 2019.

Sites in Scotland are now preparing for a return to construction under government guidance. Sales centres in Scotland and Wales are expected to reopen by early July. All its employees have now returned from furlough.

Its order book at the end of May was worth £2.78 billion, the equivalent of 11,228 homes, up from £2.52 billion the same time last year.

Build completions for the 22 weeks to the end of May totalled 2,455, down from 4,052 in the same period last year and reflecting the impact of site closures.

Customer cancellation rates had remained low. Taylor operates across 24 regional businesses across the UK and has a small operation in Spain.

It previously cancelled both a final and special dividend payment to shareholders totalling £485 million in order to preserve cash during the Covid crisis.

ii view:

Taylor Wimpey was formed from the merger of George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow in 2007. It is currently the fourth-biggest housebuilder listed on the London stock market with a value of £5.5 billion, behind Persimmon (LSE:PSN), the largest at over £8 billion, and Barratt Developments (LSE:BDEV) and Berkeley Group (LSE:BKG) at £5.8 billion and £5.7 billion respectively.

Elevated build costs crimped the profit margin during 2019, although a decisive general election outcome removed potential opposition policies seen as detrimental to housebuilder prospects.

More recently, Covid-19 and the conservation of cash has left it without the key attraction of shareholder returns. But operations are now returning, with the government previously lifting closures on estate agents and actively pushing a reopening of the housing market. Although life is unlikely to return to normal for some time, demand for new houses still looks to persist despite the pandemic, with Taylor Wimpey an ongoing beneficiary.

Positives:

Restarting operations following Covid-19
Order book up 10% year-over-year
Negatives:

Shareholder returns suspended under Covid-19
Help to Buy scheme is currently due to end in 2023
The average rating of stock market analysts:

Strong buy

[craftyale] 08/6/2020 13:40

I don't debate news, news has no utility to my objectives in trading shares. News is already built into the price. Ideas make money. My job as a trader is to predict the future. Your prediction of the future does not align with mine. I'm here to make money. Yes many shares have gone up since April lows - how many here backed themselves by buying at that point? You stated that you took out a short in TW. That was/is a bad trade and you have lost money. You still haven't stated your entry price/size. Price is the only thing that matters, I stepped away from the media years ago. If/when the TW. price plateaus/reduces I will change my position and take profit. Meanwhile TW. keeps moving up, and that is all that matters.

[sikhthetech] 08/6/2020 11:54

crafty/tlobs,

What do you think of the 40% drop in completions? Also the lack of comment on the number sold or the effect of the lockdown on costs?
There's a distinct lack of comment on here about last week's update.



Lots of shares have gone up since they hit the lows, as expected... I've had some which have doubled...nothing special about TW.


It took just 3 weeks for TW share price to half from pre-lockdown until beginning of April and 10 weeks for it to rise 70% off the lows.. it is still off it's pre-lockdown level of 211p on 3rd March and it's high of 236 on 19th Feb, 1 month before lockdown.




My comments are to do with what will happen once furlough stops, which is just weeks away... mortgage payment hols stop, millions become unemployed... From July to end of year will be a critical time for stockmarkets/economy...

[masterblaster] 08/6/2020 10:04

Imo £1.60 could be the support price. Not going to see the £1.50's again

[gaygay3] 08/6/2020 10:04

Hi jugears
hit 170 like you said where are the three amigos gone waiting till it starts to drop again and they will be back

[craftyale] 08/6/2020 10:01

Trailing stops moved up again. As they say when buying shares..........30% the market 30% the sector 40% the company. The market, sector and company are all up, and to top it all TW. is an excellent investment. Price is everything.

[tlobs2] 08/6/2020 09:19

Good morning sikhthetech. How's it looking today? ;-)

[wfl1970] 08/6/2020 08:48

"Looking at four quid within 12 months"

I see Jugears is posting under a new avatar... ;))

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/6/2020 00:14

Looking at four quid within 12 months

[craftyale] 07/6/2020 18:49

What was your entry point and position size?

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2020 16:33

How many completions were there since the lockdown? They mention cancellations during the lockdown but their completions refer to 22 weeks, ie to beginning of the year!!




Taylor Wimpey’s completions slump almost 40%

[craftyale] 07/6/2020 13:10

How's the short going?

[masterblaster] 06/6/2020 19:56

Definitely.Imo now in a higher trading range of £1.50 to £1.75

[dannyashton96] 06/6/2020 13:27

Signs look half decent for Taylor wimpey... good time to invest?

[inntolife] 06/6/2020 12:08

Only if he whistles at them :) :)

[wfl1970] 05/6/2020 11:45

" also observing construction workers when out walking"

Should be a law against that...! ;)

[m4rtinu] 05/6/2020 11:22

H. I have anecdotal evidence * builders don't Soc Dist. I'm sure companies have signs up but it takes a lot of balls to monitor and confront those not following guidelines.

* Brother in law is bricky, also observing construction workers when out walking.

[sikhthetech] 05/6/2020 10:52

hernando2,

good point.

[sikhthetech] 05/6/2020 10:41

I doubt they will consider a dividend until they know the full impact of the lockdown/economic fallout on their business, which is likely to be towards the latter part of the year.

They have reopened the majority of sales centres in England. However, Scotland still remain closed.

In their previous update they stated the number of homes sold during lockdown but there's no mention now, so there's no indication how many sales are continuing to complete.

How many completions were there since the lockdown? They mention cancellations during the lockdown but their completions refer to 22 weeks, ie to beginning of the year!!


From previous update
"During the lockdown period we have sold 408 homes net of cancellations, averaging a net private sales rate of 0.30 homes per outlet per week. "

[hernando2] 05/6/2020 10:30

I think the thing that is not mentioned, is the impact on build time and the impact on the cost of the build, caused by the implementation of the COVID safety strategies.

If it puts say 5% on the cost of the build what is that impact or if it puts 20% on the total build time of a house what is the impact.

Will prices rise or will margins be cut?

Or

Will the changes have little or no impact.

I think that information is important

Anecdotally

I just had my windows re-done by a local company, due to start the day lockdown happened, so they were done last week. Two things were apparent,

1. That they did not manage to maintain the SD measures all the time, they tried but didn't. Nobody checked.

2. That the work going forward for the comapny was subject to delay because of the difficulty in obtaining supplies, these came from German and British manufacturers so their ramp up is going very slowly.

Apparently plaster for inside work is also a very big issue, and the cost of it has shot through the roof, so i suspect that although the big guys will have first dibs on supplies it may still be an issue for some time

[disneydonald] 05/6/2020 09:42

Re dividend. I think they will need to tread cautiously after taking the queens shilling (furlough cash), and I agree with Martyn that we may have to wait for any dividends. There may be a chance of a modest special at the end of this year just so they can formally record dividend payments for every year since the recovery from the crash. Interesting to note they are back in the market for land, so they have confidence for the future which should encourage all share holders. Also, I’ve been tracking sales and they are shifting quite a few, just try booking an appointment to view and you will see that punters have to wait a week or two. Seems management are bullish.

[skinny] 05/6/2020 09:33

FWIW and take your pick :-

Peel Hunt Add 167.43 158.75 230.00 - Reiterates

Liberum Capital Hold 167.43 158.75 135.00 - Reiterates