Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 17:22

There's another 'epidemic' ripping through America that, for many on Wall Street, is just as terrifying as COVID-19... and this time The Fed is to blame.

We reported last week on the multitude of mortgage companies that were facing an existential threat from massive margin calls:

First, its was AG Mortgage Investment Trust which on Friday said it failed to meet some margin calls and doesn’t expect to be able to meet future margin calls with its current financing. Then it was TPG RE Finance Trust which also hit a liquidity wall and could not repay its lenders. Then, on Monday it was first Invesco, then ED&F Man Capital, and now the mortgage mayhem that erupted as a daisy-chain of mortgage REITs suddenly imploded, has taken down MFA Financial, whose crashing stock was halted after the company reported that "due to the turmoil in the financial markets resulting from the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus, the Company and its subsidiaries have received an unusually high number of margin calls from financing counterparties, and have also experienced higher funding costs in respect of its repurchase agreements."

All of which means - in no surprise whatsoever - that these mortgage-related firms are demanding a bailout!! Because 'Murica... and capitalism, right?

[jugears] 30/3/2020 17:12

lol your just jealous that you haven't got the balls to invest your self, I reckon I could make a few grand here each day, certainly beats working for a living, you should try tomorrow, every little penny helps, just need to see 1.37 to recover my losses from last weeks untimely purchase, if not will have to put them in my long term fund.

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 16:28

I am sure you did .

[jugears] 30/3/2020 16:27

bought some this morning & sold this afternoon, 3k profit, Starting to enjoy this day trading lark easier than I thought.

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 16:27

Today’s bridging loan rates 180 days across the market .

Normal 10% off valuation risk factor

Plus 20% off valuation for potential fall

Thus MAX LVA is 70%

That’s for a six month risk for the lender

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 16:21

As predicted


Master RSI30 Mar '20 - 11:20 - 678 of 689
0 0 0
GDP to plunge as UK heads for recession, warns CEBR

The UK economy is on course to enter the deepest recession since the financial crisis, a respected think tank warned on Monday, with growth set to slump by a record 15% in the second quarter.

Updating its forecasts for the British economy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said it expected the economy to contract only marginally in the first quarter, by 0.5%.

But that is forecast to be followed by the steepest quarter-on-quarter decline since comparable records began in 1997, of 15%. The previous largest quarterly fall, of 2.2%, was recorded at the end of 2008.

Household consumption is also expected to fall, by around 15% during the second quarter, while business investment is predicted to decline by 13% in 2020. House prices are forecast to show a drop of 13% in the year the first quarter of 2021, while government borrowing is likely to reach £180bn, or 7% of GDP, in the 2020-21 financial year.




HOUSE PRICE DROP 13%

[1carus] 30/3/2020 14:36

Sik', the risk of waiting for lower lows is that you are not in when the switch happens. That said, I am expecting lower market values but its looking like a lot of it is priced in, I was expecting carnage today but not really happened.

[sikhthetech] 30/3/2020 13:00

ImdTrading,

"entry point"...

That's your personal choice, depending on your view on risk/reward...

My thoughts pre-Covid-19 were that taking into account leasehold redress, Btl selling and house price crash due to Dubai/India, my buy in price was under 100p...
Now with Covid-19, I was looking for 50p. However, the longer and deeper the outbreak the lower I'll be looking to buy, so 30-50p at the moment... The situation changes rapidly by the day..


I have several shares on my watchlist and will buy whichever reaches my buy in price... So no problem if they don't..


Form your own opinion, it's your money..

[1carus] 30/3/2020 12:09

So much angst here. Nearly all the gains in the last 10 years have been made shortly after large market drops. The error is not being in the market at the time of recovery as it is often swift. With this share, it matters not if you are averaging at £1 or if you are lucky to get in at less than that. The only question you have to ask is what do you think they will be worth after the smoke has cleard. If you are happy to buy in at 1.10 coz you think it's value is going to be 1.50 within a reasonable time frame then do just that. If you want to make money here, you have to buy in at some point. Personally I am not buying more right now, but I suspect once the new cases of cv start to flatten here and in europe it will be too late to get back in.

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 11:05

JUGEARS

I do not doubt you have done extremely well during your lifetime.

Your now loaded with cash, highly dangerous in the bank

When the banks do the totally legal bail in, due anytime , they will help themselves to your cash.

Your property is going one way DOWN

Massive hit on your land

[smartie6] 30/3/2020 09:30

Hope they have good security on those building sites once they’ve suspended all building.
That’ll be another significant write down.

[smartie6] 30/3/2020 09:28

Yes you’re right it should be 50%.

[nametrade] 30/3/2020 09:27

35% stock write down... where did that figure come from?

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 09:14

clarky515030 Mar '20 - 09:09 - 25895 of 25895
0 0 0
If he can afford to stay in through this he will make massive money on the way back up.


Are you saying his company ( TW ) can withstand the following

No production for months

No sales for months

Stock write downs of 35% ( 202O )

Higher mortgage rates

60% loan to valuation

8 million unemployed

Civil unrest

The virus

[clarky5150] 30/3/2020 09:09

If he can afford to stay in through this he will make massive money on the way back up.

[wfl1970] 30/3/2020 09:00

Jugears knows what he's doing... he's disrespectful and offends just about anyone with an opposing view.
I hope his investing method works out for him in the long run.

[smartie6] 30/3/2020 08:51

Data should be a good read this morning. Expect further falls?

[remarkomsoc] 30/3/2020 08:50

Thanx 4 all the info m8

[smartie6] 30/3/2020 08:46

Looks like the shorters are winning this morning boys.

[1 nhs] 30/3/2020 08:36

JUGEARS

The posters on ADVFN also posted comments like yours, when I explained the airlines would be grounded.

At the time, just 4 weeks ago.

Today we see EZT doing just that.


You unfortunately have absolutely no comprehension on how fast events are moving.

Banks have stopped lending.

Deals have evaporated

Unemployment has gone from not far off zero to millions

The worlds population is scared stiff.



TW have a business model with its foundations built on debt, and house valuations that will not be seen again,for twenty years .

Every one of your assumptions are based on what you have experienced over 40 years.

[smartie6] 30/3/2020 08:35

Juggy would. Lol.