Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[2nell] 02/4/2020 19:28

Nothing wrong with birdie talk---

[hazl] 02/4/2020 19:25

Oh...Twitter....take care.



Chuckle.

[2nell] 02/4/2020 19:18

Thanks RB.

Lets hope they make a rapid recovery!!!

[yet another final] 02/4/2020 19:16

We should rise tomorrow as I suspect we will get some investors from the NCYT exodus

[rafboy] 02/4/2020 19:11

6 patients now randomised at Southampton according to twitter.

[adman50] 02/4/2020 18:49

Good on you I'm sure answering the same questions over over again builds an appetite.

Should make your own pizza

Diced ham
Yellow pepper
Olives
Red onion

DYOR pizza!

[lunus1] 02/4/2020 18:35

Nobby Good point.

[rafboy] 02/4/2020 18:15

Thanks Nobby for the answers to my question and those of the others picking your brains. Appreciated.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 18:05

>> Adman

LOL! I am having a not very healthy pizza this evening so probably best not to follow my advice in this case.....

[hazl] 02/4/2020 18:04

I found 2138 helpful.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 18:04

>> lunus

Look what happened at IMM after the negative result for Lupuzor. The price closed at about 140p the day before the result and opened after a delay at 20p. Normal stops would not have been honoured. If you can get a guaranteed stop then fine but I would be surprised if most brokers are going to give you that.

[adman50] 02/4/2020 18:03

Nobby what shall I have for dinner tonight?

[lunus1] 02/4/2020 17:59

Nobby I would agree with you that the work done on COPD and other Corona strains would appear to indicate this trial could give tangible benefit to those who participate. However, despite numerous comments on here it is highly unlikely that anyone will know anything about the results until the end of May at earliest. Personally I would expect the share price to be between a range of 70-80p by mid May, and if it is rather than take some off the table I’ll just set a stop loss order to protect myself in the event of a negative result. That way I can still maximise my gains.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 17:58

>> Flávio

That would be extremely difficult to do and considering these patients are infectious not really practical. I am sure it would be a good reading to have though.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 17:52

>> acga

Again I have been consistent that I expect between 80p and £1 close to the time of the result. However, I could be completely wrong about that. I am in the lucky position of having a 20p average entry price so it doesn't matter to me where it is at these sorts of levels.

[ramridge] 02/4/2020 17:49

To add to my note, the max I will invest is about 3% of my fund. I limit my portfolio risk by scaling the amount invested.

[flavio_monteiro] 02/4/2020 17:48

Nobby. In these difficult times for the NHS probably not possible....Would daily CT/MRI scans not show improvements in virus reduction between placebo patients and active?

[acga] 02/4/2020 17:47

So what price do you expect to be taking some off the table ahead of the results?

[ramridge] 02/4/2020 17:46

Great , thanks Nobbygnome.
According to probability theory, the expected share price is given by the formula
£3 x 0.75 + £0.2 x 0.25 = £2.3 or 230p
Closing price was 54p ; this points to a 4-fold+ return.
So even if we assume a more cautious probability, say 50:50, then the expected return comes to 160p. a 3-fold return.
Hmmm. I will be buying more tomorrow.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 17:39

>> ramridge

To that end I have also consistently said I will be taking some money off the table before the result. I have been completely open about that; I am not prepared to risk my entire investment on this result.

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 17:35

>> ramridge

I have consistently said I give the chance of success at 75:25. Howvever, that really is a guesstimate and may well be over optimistic. There is circumstantial evidence from the COPD trial which is positive but I stress doesn't guarantee anything.

You have to go into this with your eyes open and realise that this is a binary event as I discuss above. This is just IMHO and DYOR...

[nobbygnome] 02/4/2020 17:32

>> rafboy

You are correct that the company's entire future is not binary but the result of this particular trial is. Of course this trial is what is driving the price. If the result is positive I expect at least £3 and if it is negative I expect below 20p. That is the definition of binary IMHO.

And yes there is a small chance of an intermediate result where statistical significance is just missed....

[rafboy] 02/4/2020 17:24

Nobby is it completely binary? What about the COPD trial, does that fold too? Finally, if I may, do you think the COPD trial could have produced some useful data?

[ramridge] 02/4/2020 17:23

Nobbygnome - you clearly have deep knowledge and experience of this field. So in your judgement, what is the probability that the trial in two months time or so will be successful? In the scale 1 to 10?

[ramridge] 02/4/2020 17:14

Nobbygnome - you have gathered that I couldn't tell the difference between a vaccine, treatment and the back of red London bus!
Thanks for your replies.