Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[happyman7] 28/3/2020 12:47

Nobby, you were quite rightly warning people not to invest in IMM,
but it is good to see that you are very bullish for SGN, different animals

[lithological heterogeneities] 28/3/2020 11:46

More good news for Covid sufferers.The new Dyson ventilators have been delivered across the country and the first patient to use it is said to be picking up nicely now.:0)

[nobbygnome] 28/3/2020 11:15

They won't have to do any further trials if this one is positive IMHO. The pressure to get it on the market ASAP would be immense. In particular the US will still be in the midst of the peak in a couple of months with an incredibly high death rate because of their complacency so far. Just imagine Trump being presented with the possibility of an effective treatment; I think a EUA would be forthcoming and SNG could name the price.....

[2nell] 28/3/2020 11:11

May have been posted before,but just to recap on the timelines so far.

Article on the Southampton NHS web site by SNG dated 18th March says-

Positive initial results from the 100 patient pilot phase could see the trial expanded to more hospitals, with Synairgen increasing production of the drug in parallel.

We then have the fundraising 2 days after the trial has started to. Manufacture of SNG001 drug product and other supply chain considerations.

[nobbygnome] 28/3/2020 11:09

I suspect they have effectively entered into a contract with the placees so I doubt very much if they can withdraw the offer now. They have decided to go down the route of owning 100% of the drug at least until after the trial result.

You can either see this as very brave....or very foolhardy! I guess it totally depends on the trial result and history will decide which adjective is correct.

[jrlomax] 28/3/2020 10:12

The 10 million Firm shares land on Monday but that's all till the agm on April 15th. If we get news or maybe a jv offer they may not issue them. I'm sure that's why the first tranche are called Firm shares. I think this is throwing down the gauntlet to big pharmaceutical cos saying come and get involved or we'll go it alone.

[pdt] 28/3/2020 09:59

I was wondering what the value of stockpiling SNG001 would be for future outbreaks of this and other viruses by global governments. They certainly would not want to be caught unprepared a second time.

A figure for Tamiflu was given and a suggestion of over $3billion in stockpiling sales. Tamiflu I believe was quite virus specific whereas SNG001 is a broad antiviral and presumably more valuable as a drug to hold stocks of just in case.

An internet search suggests that interferon beta for MS use has a selflife of 3 years so a stockpile scenario is certainly possible. And interestingly a month's supply of various brands retail at around $6,000 per month.

Clearly SNG will be using a marketing/distribution partner but I would have thought the royalty would be high since the market participants are well defined being national governments.

A royalty of say 30% and sales of $3 billion would give SNG close to $1 billion income from this sales channel alone.

[talk2dubya] 28/3/2020 08:40

Makendon:

That big trade was listed as X-OFF meaning:

The venue XOFF just means the trade was traded OFF a main exchange - probably over the counter between 2 parties without any exchange participation.

There have been a few of these recently. Someone is taking stock directly from a willing seller.

[nobbygnome] 28/3/2020 07:20

And of course I should add this isn't just a drug for the Covid 19 crisis. Once it is shown to work, it will be potentially used in all severe viral respiratory infections such as those seen in the annual flu season. This is a drug for the long term not just the next few months. It could be absolutely massive....

[lauders] 28/3/2020 05:39

Just finished watching a video that is worth a look since most of us have time at the moment:

An interesting part from the discussion was when the subject of treatments came up:

"And so, the Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust, with support from Mastercard and now others, rated this therapeutic accelerator, to really triage out -- you have hundreds of people showing up and saying try this, try that. We look at lab essays, animal models. And so we understand which things should be prioritized for these very quick human trials that need to be done all over the world. So the coordination on that is very complex globally. But I think, you know, out of the top 20 or so candidates, probably three or four of them will work out, you know, at different stages of the disease, to reduce the respiratory distress."

[lauders] 27/3/2020 23:58

Switched to this thread now from one of the others as it seems nobbygnome can moderate to some degree which is always nice when needed. SNG get a VERY brief mention in this interesting piece that covers many COVID-19 treatment and detection matters:



Beta interferons: Drugs with interferon beta-1a and interferon beta-1b are currently being tested in studies against Covid-19 . The German company Merck is making its interferon beta-1a drug available for a larger study by the INSERM institute in France . Both active substances do not have approval for antiviral therapy in the EU, but in laboratory tests interferon beta-1a was able to stop the proliferation of the related SARS viruses. For an inhalable form of interferon-beta-1a, the British company Synairgen has received approval for a study in Covid-19 patients.

Wonder if Merck and SNG would ever collaborate? At critical times like these we don't know what is going on behind the scenes! Just hope someone finds out how to help combat this virus effectively ASAP.

[lukead] 27/3/2020 20:54

Thanks for the update lithological h..., much appreciated.

Personally did not appreciate the posts from Linus1 and BMNSA, peddling their other shares.

In particular, I found the post from Linus1 quite insensitive.

[makendon] 27/3/2020 20:51

2nell

Re: Mar 27 2020, 17:06 46.00 824,000 0.00 0.00 ? £379,040.00000

Transaction 308 - Unfortunately was a sell

Days trading numbers:
Buys 1.88m
Sells 2.34m

Roll on Monday.....

[dave444] 27/3/2020 20:31

Plug it somewhere else

[bmnsa] 27/3/2020 20:29

Some folk who are in SNG may also be interested in NSCI

I was fortunate enough to catch the early rise yesterday. By far my largest holding is in SNG and I only offer the info below of this company as an add on,not to replace SNG in anyway but for its large potential opportunity, given this is a very hot sector at the moment & IMO worth a look.
It has just had its two largest days trading for quite some time.

NET SCIENTIFIC (NSCI)have 3 large investments in ProAxis, Glycotest & PDS Biotechnology.

ProAxsis -
is a medical diagnostics company based in Northern Ireland, developing a range of products for the capture, detection and measurement of active protease biomarkers of diseases.
The rapid and easy-to-use tests ProAxsis has developed incorporate patented ProteaseTags®; smart molecules which trap an active protease within a complex biological sample and enable a visual readout of its presence.

The initial applications for the technology are focused on managing the chronic respiratory diseases,

Cystic Fibrosis (CF) and

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), where exacerbations have a major impact on the long-term prognosis of patients.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Glycotest is a US-based liver diagnostics company seeking to commercialise new and unique blood tests for life threatening liver cancers and fibrosis-cirrhosis with exclusive world-wide rights to over 50 patent-protected serum protein biomarkers.

Glycotest’s lead product is its HCC panel, a biomarker panel driven by a proprietary algorithm for curable early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common form of primary liver cancer.

The market for HCC testing is large and growing with currently three million patients and in excess of US$800m in the US alone.

. . . . . . . . . . . .

PDS is a clinical stage immunotherapy company developing a next-generation of simpler, safer and more effective immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases.
Versamune® -its novel synthetic nanoparticle platform technology- activates multiple immunological mechanisms which direct the targeting of cancer and infectious disease by the immune system.

Developments
In May 2015 PDS announced positive preliminary data showing that its lead cancer immunotherapy treatment, PDS0101, has generated strong T-cell responses in pre-cervical cancer.

In February 2016 PDS signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the National Cancer Institute, a division of the US National Institutes of Health. The goal is to co-develop novel cancer immunotherapies through Phase II clinical trials that will start in 2016 and 2017.

PDS has recently strengthened its senior management team with the recruitment of a Chief Medical Officer and VP of Drug Development and Manufacturing. NetScientific has invested £1.76m for a 14.85% shareholding in PDS.

[lithological heterogeneities] 27/3/2020 19:23

It's no wonder the Placing at 35p was "HEAVILY OVERSUBSCRIBED" by the Institutions and wealthy private investors.

This could turn out to be not just the stock of 2020 but of the whole bloody decade !

[lithological heterogeneities] 27/3/2020 19:15

Extra $3 billion+ on success ?

In addition to any substantial revenue for SNG on a successful outcome of the trial, SNG could get an extra >$3bn ($3 BILLION) to stockpile SNG001 just like the >$3bn stock piling of of Tamiflu !

FINNCAP NOTE - 26 MAR 2020
"Not only would a positive trial help to address the current COVID-19 crisis but it could also offer governments the opportunity to stockpile a broad-spectrum antiviral product for future pandemics in the way that the US and European governments stockpiled significant levels of the antiviral, Tamiflu (>$3bn)."

[lithological heterogeneities] 27/3/2020 19:14

FINNCAP - 26 MAR 20 (part 2)

•To give a sense of the potential value of successful COVID-19 treatment (rather than vaccine), Gilead Sciences,(Remdesivir) stock price rose c.14% on the back of this news, adding c.$11bn to the value of Gilead.

•Fujifilm Holdings,faviparivir (Avigan),share price rose c.15% on this news, implying an equity increase of c.£3bn.

If the Phase II trial was positive, it would mean Synairgen was in possession of a compelling data set with tremendous value.

Bringing it to market would ultimately depend on the regulator’s view of the drug and the potential for use, for example in the US under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA. It is clear from previous studies in c.230 subjects that there are no safety concerns with SNG001, which makes the relatively short-term (2-3 months) data readout very interesting from a risk/return basis.

Recent data from WHO suggests that c.20% of COVID-19 patients become seriously ill following infection. Assuming that 30-40% of the population is infected with the COVID-19 virus, that implies c.20m infections of which c.4m are expected to become seriously ill. For argument’s sake, let’s suggest that 5% of these patients require antiviral therapy; this would imply a market opportunity of $1bn, assuming that a 10-day course of interferon beta therapy costs c.$5,000.
It is quite possible that Synairgen generates revenues in 2020 if the current trial shows any benefit.

Not only would a positive trial help to address the current COVID-19 crisis but it could also offer governments the opportunity to stockpile a broad-spectrum antiviral product for future pandemics in the way that the US and European governments stockpiled significant levels of the antiviral, Tamiflu (>$3bn).

[lithological heterogeneities] 27/3/2020 19:13

FINNCAP - 26 MAR 20 (part 1)

Synairgen has raised £14.0m to fund a Phase II trial for SNG001 in COVID-19 disease, which is due to commence enrolment imminently after gaining rapid permissions for the UK’s MHRA and HRA. This is a significant breakthrough for the company and the global fight against COVID-19, having achieved these permissions ahead of the expected rapid increase in number of hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

A successful outcome from the pilot phase will have substantial commercial value. The risk/reward profile, given earlier evidence that SNG001 has a beneficial in vitro effect in MERS and SARS coronaviruses and has been shown to be safe and well tolerated in asthma/COPD patients, is skewed significantly to the upside, particularly given the potential for first revenues in 2020.

Not only would a positive trial help to address the current COVID-19 crisis but it could enable governments to stockpile a broad-spectrum antiviral product for future pandemics. We introduce a 120p target with potential further upside.

• Placing raised £14.0m by way of the issue of 40.0m ordinary shares at 35p, representing 26.8% of the enlarged equity. Of this, c.£7m will be used to fund the COVID-19 trial activities, £4m to manufacture SNG001 drug product and other supply
chain considerations, with the balance (£3m) to strengthen the balance sheet.

• COVID-19 Phase II trial.
As announced on 18 March, the company received permissions to undertake a Phase II double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial in COVID-19 diseased patients that will enrol 100 patients from around ten NHS trust sites in the week beginning 23 March, with initial results due in Q2 2020.

• Lack of approved products.
Currently, there is no vaccine and no specific antiviral medicine to prevent or treat COVID-19, although Gilead Science commenced clinical trials in COVID-19 patients recently and Moderna Therapeutics also dosed its first patient in an NIH-led Phase I study of its mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2.

•Market opportunity.
It is clear from the equity market’s positive reaction to COVID-19 clinical events; for example, from Gilead Sciences (+$11bn on the start of a 1,000 patient Phase III trial of remdesivir) and Fujifilm (+£3bn on positive data from 340 patients in China of faviparivir) that the market potential is enormous. With c.1 in 6 coronavirus-infected patients becoming severely ill, the potential number of treatments rises into the 100ks, creating a potential $1bn+ product opportunity.

• Valuation.
We introduce a target price of 120p, which is based on a sum-of-the parts DCF, comprising c.80p for SNG001 in COVID-19, 27p for SNG001 in COPD, 11p for LOXL2 and c.2p of cash whilst taking account of the c.27% dilution due to the
fundraise. This would rise substantially on a positive COVID-19 trial result.

[lunus1] 27/3/2020 18:47

talk2dubya I don’t expect a lot to happen here before the meeting on the 14th. I’m not one for recommendations but if you’ve got some spare cash I’d have a look at NCYT, I think they’ll fly next week. I’m invested and will put all profits (fingers crossed) in here in a couple of weeks.

[lithological heterogeneities] 27/3/2020 18:44

PLEASE DONATE TO OUR WONDERFUL COVID-19 NHS STAFF AND VOLUNTEERS

If you can,please support our fantastic NHS frontline workers who are putting their own lives on the line saving us and our friends and families by donating to the NHS Charities COVID-19 Urgent Appeal run by Virgin Money:



Make a real difference. Please forward this link to everyone you know.

[tickboo] 27/3/2020 18:13

Ah okay. Cheers

[2nell] 27/3/2020 18:08

This is a big one!!

Mar 27 2020, 17:06 46.00 824,000 0.00 0.00 ? £379,040.00000

Bloody annoying though,don't know if it's a sell or buy.

[dave444] 27/3/2020 17:56

Tickboo - this announcement is before the increase in shares!