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[toffeeman] 16/9/2020 12:19

Here you go :)

hxxps://www.autocasion.com/actualidad/noticias/helvezzia-tipo-6-coche-electrico-estilo-retro-fotos-datos

[trickydicky1] 16/9/2020 12:19

bones, I think you mean the IRIS e-trike (it is the high performance version, don’t forget).

[bones] 16/9/2020 12:07

Sinclair C5

[condom2] 16/9/2020 11:44

No Names please ,there is a code of decorum on this thread.

[bdaonion] 16/9/2020 10:21

Likely to be more clarity, or explanation for anonymity, at tomorrow's webinar.

[longshanks] 16/9/2020 10:17

That could be very pertinent. However, anonymity appears to be a crucial element for this customer at present, so I personally try to hold back from naming names and encourage others to do the same.

It is natural to speculate and, somewhat exciting, but again I refer to the quantum of the deal and the game changing nature for the business: a ten fold expansion in production over the next few years.

[grahamwales] 16/9/2020 10:10

Long

May be just a coincidence but Tesla Germany is due to start production in 2021. I drive a Tesla and although I don’t use the brakes that often what may be of benefit is the weight reduction, noise reduction, no rusting etc etc.

Good luck

[longshanks] 16/9/2020 10:03

Hi GW,

Yes. Lots of ideas, but nothing concrete. In truth it doesn't matter: they will be a large automotive brand which is clearly forecasting the sale of a large number of high performance cars over the next 4 years. The information provided to the house broker and Nomad (not by RNS) indicates this will be an electric vehicle.

Given they are not one of the first 6 OEMs that ST have been working with, they are likely to be based outside Europe.

This narrows down the list to only 3 or 4 likely customers and, in all probability, one very special company that operates out of Fremont, California.

Anonymity though would appear to be important to this customer - and whilst that may change in time, there is little point speculating too much and we should focus instead on the quantum of the deal and the fact it brings this company to profitability much faster than originally anticipated.

[grahamwales] 16/9/2020 09:52

Longshanks

Any idea who this large order may be for?

[longshanks] 16/9/2020 08:42

As mentioned yesterday, Deloitte believe the market for EVs in 2030 will be 25m. They also hypothecate that the market for the ICE will reach a peak of 87m in 2025 and then see a steady decline in numbers (though gradual at first).

I agree that the notion of the car will change, not least as driverless technology evolves and the role of the 'driver' changes. As technologies and needs merge we could see related challenges to what we know of as the 'workplace' and indeed the 'home'. A generation of young people may turn their backs on long term mortgages tied to bricks and mortar and instead invest their future in mobile homes with components that need little maintenance and are designed to last a lifetime: mobility that could allow you to go to bed in the city and wake up next day on the Isle of Mull.

You may say I'm a dreamer. But I'm not the only one. I hope some day you'll join us. And the world will be as one.

[trickydicky1] 16/9/2020 07:47

Fills, thanks! ;)

Too many spreadsheets not enough dreamers ...

Let’s move away from spot estimates then, let’s ignoring the consulting firms, and let’s start with one simple question.

How many EVs will be sold in 2030? I’ll start, despite the fact that anchoring is a risk.

Range of 10-50m.

I hope 10m isn’t particularly contentious, but 50m (including hybrids etc.) assumes that we have effective 0% interest rates for the next decade (free/cheap money) and a fiscal response that understands the gravity of the environmental challenge and deploys the same resolve to addressing this as it has to the challenge of Covid-19. And if there are any monetary economists still in existence who imagine that inflation will come charging back to upset the apple-cart (I think most of them are hiding in so-called investment “management221; houses, shuttering hedge funds or at the FT), they should just remember that the constant lesson from the past two millennia (plus plus!) is that rapid technological advance and globalisation is highly deflationary. Stop pretending that ‘market’ history started in 1970, please! Sincere apologies for the deviation.

I think we should also reconsider what a ‘car’ is. At present, a person from Venus would struggle to spot the difference between them. An EV platform paves the way for a far greater variety of design and practical iterations. I suspect a smaller single person carrier with a short range might have significant market potential. Was the Nano right in many aspect bar one important one - that it was perceived as being a ‘poor man’s [with apologies] car’? The shift from horsepower to ICE saw wagons replaced with vehicles not too dissimilar. Hopefully the clever designers, engineers AND marketers at new car companies under inspiring leaders will learn how to make a faster leap TOGETHER!

[toffeeman] 15/9/2020 17:07

Well, what good marketers do if supply is limited,is put the price up!

[bones] 15/9/2020 17:00

Yes, agreed Longshanks. My bigger concern is that the company can manage the capacity expansion. I recall at the Q&A, David Bundred saying how the list of prospects presents its own challenges!

[longshanks] 15/9/2020 16:34

I am a long term supporter for the very same reasons Bones, just mindful of what it takes to be perceived as an investment grade stock by others.


Having a prospective PER is a novelty here and still surprisingly low given the potential. It isn't necessary for some, but having it will help those that still use slide rules when making decisions.

[bones] 15/9/2020 16:27

I would say prospective PER etc is not what is driving my investment here, it is the potential to change an industry with the ESG tailwinds at our back.

Read yesterday’s RNS and I hear directors’ enthusiasm pouring freely forth. Next year’s EPS number is just a sideshow if the contracts keep coming and the company appears bullish on that score.

[longshanks] 15/9/2020 16:16

Thanks Riv, added to the header.

Plenty of understandably cautious notes regarding the uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 and Brexit, but with a prospective P/E of 23 for 2022, and the opportunity for further significant upside, this is certainly looking great value.

[rivaldo] 15/9/2020 15:46

New research just out from Hardman - the current valuation appears "modest" and the shares "offer value" at 41p:

[longshanks] 15/9/2020 13:11

Agreed Bones. I have seen little point in selling any. As with others, this now represents a disproportionately large chunk of my portfolio but I see little pressure or desire to rebalance given just how bullish the short, medium and long term pictures are.

[condom2] 15/9/2020 11:03

Tricky have a look at Rivian it’s happening , just featured on the long way up .

[trickydicky1] 15/9/2020 09:22

G1TY ... I prefer growth markets than markets in terminal decline ... though I know that is the staple for the UK investor (fags, beer, banks, near-off patent drugs, oil companies etc...). For me, the key EV excitement is that weight saving = range. This is less important for petrol cars. ‘Old economy’ car companies will be around for a few years yet, but I’d be interested in your thoughts, for instance, on the likely market demand in 2025 for the Tesla Roadster compared with your petrolhead competitor of choice? 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, far better handling, response, etc., etc.!

I’d far rather their factories were making products that helped the transition to a cleaner future.

PS Are we being designed into the Cybertruck???

[rivaldo] 15/9/2020 09:22

Toffeeman, Sneller's probably been continuing to buy since his last holdings RNS on 26th May - today's RNS just shows the date he crossed the 13% threshold was yesterday after buying some more, not that the entire 1.2m shares were all bought yesterday.

Great to see Sneller showing such confidence anyway.

[bones] 15/9/2020 09:21

My guess is he has probably been buying gradually before yesterday except that his last portion took him over the next 1% trigger point. I bet he bought relatively little yesterday at the higher prices.

[toffeeman] 15/9/2020 09:12

Sneller has bought another 1.2m shares - so that would be a lot of yesterday's record volume