Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[madmix] 05/7/2022 12:48

I like to review whether I should have seen a profit warning coming when things go wrong.

Before today, I was more concerned about the Sports Nutrition & Wellness part of the business, due to price increases in things like whey protein.

Luceco (Lighting) flagged overstocking as an issue in their 4th May trading update, yet on the 10th May, Supreme said "The Company continues to trade well". So either they were keeping quiet, or the situation has deteriorated significantly in the last two months.

Anyhow, I sold my small position first thing.

[actscap] 05/7/2022 11:27

Precisely my sentiment. Disappointed nothing was mentioned before. We'll know more at the AGM tomorrow

[farnesbarnes] 05/7/2022 10:54

If most investors look for long term price appreciation, why do they not just study a chart. Not talking technical analysis, just price action. Higher highs and higher lows: simple stair stepping action.

I was in SUP but sold at the time the war started. The break at 175 was my out (12 month low), the trend had broken. When I see news like today, this simple methodology keeps me in the game.

[masurenguy] 05/7/2022 10:44

This has taken a hit due to the lower outlook statement for the current year overlaid by general negative market sentiment. However, to put matters into perspective, lighting accounts for around 20% of their business wheras Vaping - almost 40% - is expected to grow by 30% this year.

[danb45] 05/7/2022 10:19

Haha yes I won't :-(

[johndoe23] 05/7/2022 09:54

Wouldn't hold my breath

[danb45] 05/7/2022 09:42

They blo*dy better be some director buys down here :-(

[podgyted] 05/7/2022 09:39

Management credibility at zero IMO.

As Dr B says, no mention in Y/E TU and nothing was mentioned (going from memory) in the Investor presentation on 22nd April, which was obviously arranged to reassure after the TU.

The E-D note reduces its forecast EPS for 22/23 by 32%! (Whilst increasing vaping sales and gross profit thereon by 37%)

Out now.

[bondy23] 05/7/2022 09:30

Not sure what you don't understand. They report overstocking but because of a slow down that stock hasn't been sold so how can it increase revenue?

[dr biotech] 05/7/2022 09:18

I’ve taken the hit. Issue here is now management credibility. Warned twice, I can’t see how they didn’t know about lighting in the previous trading statement either.

[edmonda] 05/7/2022 09:11

New research report from Equity Development - link to full note here:

"FY22 results in line: FY23 emphasis on Vaping"

For the year to 31 March 2022, Supreme PLC reported revenue of £130.8m, +7.0%YoY, gross profit of £38.5m, +16.6%YoY, and EBITDA (adj.) of £21.1m, +9.3%YoY. The contribution to total revenue from Vaping dominated at 33.3%, with Sports Nutrition and Wellness rising from 5.6% to 12.2%. Year-end net debt was £4.0m, with a proposed full year dividend of 6.0p/share.

FY22 performance was within 1.0% variance of our estimates. During the year the Group noted: the addition of new vaping contracts with Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Core Communications; acquisition of Vendek Ltd., in Ireland, allowing access to the EU; acquisition of the Sci-MX sports nutrition products and brand; over 3,300 retail and public sector clients and 70,000 active customer accounts.

Headwinds in Lighting reduce our FY23E EBITDA outlook from £22.8m to £17.5m.

Group customers in the Lighting products division report inventory and stock build which should reduce the pipeline of demand in the current year. High margin (33.1%) Lighting products contributed 24.3% of FY22 gross profits, making the impact of inventory correction noteworthy.

Accordingly we reduce our Group FY23 revenue outlook from £143.5m to £129.5m, and EBITDA from £22.8m to £17.5m.

Our Fair Value / share is reduced from 245p to 190p.

[hydrus] 05/7/2022 09:05

'Whilst it is still early in the new financial year, the nature of lighting sales where a significant portion are sold "FOB" on long lead times means that the Board has relatively strong visibility into the latter part of the year and the expected weakness in trading.'If they have good visibility then surely they could have foreseen the overstocking also?

[hydrus] 05/7/2022 09:00

I have sold out as I can't get my head around the explanation. If there had been overstocking then surely the results would show a bigger increase in revenue for FY22 for that division. Also I would expect them to have highlighted this trend previously.

[topvest] 05/7/2022 08:15

A tad disappointing it has to be said. That's 2 of the 4 divisions down in FY23. I guess vaping and batteries remain the most important categories. Share price obviously being hit but doesn't change the long term. It will enevitably take 18 months + to recover though. I'm inclined to stick with it, but obviously not looking too clever now!

[aspringo] 05/7/2022 07:54

Yeah, another long term hold, got quite a few of them now. Guess we'll see another 30 percent off.Its nice to have the hump lately on a daily basis ?

[johndoe23] 05/7/2022 07:43

Well, that wasn't the outlook I was hoping for...

[dougmachin] 30/6/2022 01:06

That's some great volume.
Big trades going through at the exact same time too.
This is shares changing hands before results IMO.
Gotta be good news.

[johndoe23] 29/6/2022 19:02

Look like a lot of sells before midday. Possibly any overhang now cleared?

[nw99] 29/6/2022 18:52

Big vol pickup

[johndoe23] 29/6/2022 12:37

Yes, hopefully the bottom has been seen now. Stage 1 consolidation...

[tonytyke2] 29/6/2022 12:14

Looking like good share price action today again, results on the 5th July. IMO this appears to have been way oversold in the recent months but we shall see, fingers crossed (:-)

[tonytyke2] 27/6/2022 11:04

Crikes, Looks like it's starting to rally over the past few days moving into results very soon. I bought more on Friday. GLA

[pireric] 22/6/2022 21:29

New trade website launched for the lighting division:

And new product launches in Sealions - vitamins for dogs:

Eric