Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 21/6/2022 08:15

Results will be issued two weeks today on Tuesday 5 July.

[dougmachin] 20/6/2022 14:37

A snippet:

[topvest] 13/6/2022 09:06

Yes, this appears a good deal. Not cheap, but Supreme can probably do much more with the brand.

[edmonda] 13/6/2022 07:50

#SUP Supreme PLC has announced the acquisition of Liberty Flights Holdings Limited for an initial consideration of £7.75m, with a deferred £2.0m and performance-related earn-outs taking the total potential consideration up to £14.75m. The acquisition of this leading UK manufacturer of closed system vaping products significantly enhances Supreme’s vaping customer footprint, and introduces new opportunities for cross-sales into Liberty’s customer base.

Founded in 2010, Liberty Flights is the manufacturer and brand owner of the Liberty Flights vaping brand, and Dot Pro closed system vaping device range. The acquisition from Liberty Flights’ three shareholders is funded from Supreme’s £25.0m HSBC revolving credit facility.

We estimate that in FY23 the acquisition will add revenue of c.£7.0m (+5.1%) (c. 9 months) and EBITDA (adj.) of c.£0.8m (+3.5%), and in FY24 add c.£9.0m (+6.3%) and £1.5m (+6.2%) respectively. Vaping products rise from an estimated 33.4% of total Supreme revenue in FY22 to 43.1% by FY24. We estimate that cost savings will accrue from 12 months post-acquisition.
Based on revised forecasts, our fair value is increased from 230p to 245p/share.

[masurenguy] 13/6/2022 07:47

Interesting aquisition !

[pireric] 13/6/2022 07:33

Valuation seems pretty reasonable for what seems a very complementary business. I'm guessing it'll be mid / high single digit eps accretive before any cost synergies etc. Consumer reputation seems strong

pilot.com/review/www.liberty-flights.co.uk

God knows why ADVFN block so many mainstream URLs

Eric

[purplepelmets] 13/6/2022 07:10

Interesting RNS this morn. Aquiring a vape company for $7.5m. All progressing nicely it seems.

[johndoe23] 10/6/2022 13:50

Thought I would regret not adding at 119p. Excellent strength against the tide past couple of days

[hydrus] 10/6/2022 13:13

A bit of life and above my average now having managed to get some at 120p. I wonder if it is dawning on others that their products are likely to be resilient in a downturn. Vaping is cheaper than smoking and their vaping products are very cheap. Batteries and lighting will plod along in the background. Vitamins are probably ok because again they are so cheap.

[sharw] 08/6/2022 22:30

The company restated its policy at the Interims: "...we intend to pay dividends to shareholders in an aggregate annual amount equivalent to approximately 50% of net profits, retaining the balance of earnings from operations to finance our future expansion. Our dividend payments are expected to be split into a one third interim dividend and a two thirds final dividend"

I don't have Sharepad, but Stockopedia, who get their data from Refinitiv, show a dividend of 4.31p covered 2.93 times.

Rubbish. I forecast 2.2 +4.4 = 6.6.

[purplepelmets] 08/6/2022 22:22

Added here. I have never seen trustpilot scores so high as for 88vape and sealions. the vape has 40,000 reviews too and is snowballing. Clearly an excellent product at an attractive price, well marketed, and would be a shot in the arm for dullard big baccy like IMB to acquire.

[pireric] 08/6/2022 19:10

Sharepad error. More like a 5.5% yield (give or take)

I'm interested to see if anything comes out of tomorrow. If they do announce ways to tackle tobacco, there is a good chance it's tied together with ideas to increase the rate of shift between cigarette users and vapers, which could be quite meaningfully positive for SUP (such that we actually see it manifest into higher revenue over time).

Eric

[spann_703] 08/6/2022 18:14

I noticed recently that according to SharePad the forecast yield has mysteriously dropped to 3.4%.

I'm sure it was higher. Indeed with an interim dividend already paid of 2.2p, and dividends expected to be split in the ratio 1:2 between interim dividend and final dividend, all things being equal I'd expect a total dividend for the year to be roughly 6.6p - a yield of 5.2% on today's closing price.

Is this simply a SharePad data error, or is there something I'm missing?

[masurenguy] 08/6/2022 07:40

Revenue
Vaping: 35.5%
Batteries: 24.5%
Lighting: 21.6%
Spots/Wellness: 10.4%
Other HG: 8.0%

[purplepelmets] 08/6/2022 01:07

anyone know what the % of revenue/profit is derived from each division? I'd like to know how significant the vaping and supplement divisions are to SUP

[actscap] 07/6/2022 21:20

Not sure when the final report lands, but I can't see any drag on Supreme's vaping business. It should help boost vaping sales by government pushing it publicly as a less harmful alternative.

[dan_the_epic] 07/6/2022 21:18

From my selfish point of view, this is great news for Supreme and great news for the country in general if we can get smokers onto vapes from the more harmful cigarettes and their second hand fumes

[actscap] 07/6/2022 21:15

We need to do much more as a country to tackle smoking, which causes huge harm, including measures such as making vaping more accessible to help people get off cigarettes. We are looking forward to receiving the final reportThe money raised could then be spent on smoking-cessation services, advertising campaigns and providing e-cigarettes to smokers on the NHS, it will say.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/20/smoking-age-could-rise-21-radical-review-sajid-javid/

[actscap] 07/6/2022 21:12

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/07/plan-to-raise-smoking-age-to-21-to-be-unveiled-amid-uk-government-splits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[dougmachin] 03/6/2022 09:13

But..... it's between about 0.5% to 3% difference in IIs.

Depending on whether Hargreaves are retail PIs, who may or may not have come in since the float.

They may not have been there at the float.

So, a 0.5% to 3% on balance sell of IIs and a 50% drop in share price

Point is, the difference in IIs selling is not comparable to the share price drop.

[chilltime] 03/6/2022 08:47

I rest my case.

As one points out Hargreaves will be retail PIs, common in many shares.

You dudes shouted big seller all I did was look, read and identify the seller.

Painted as a bad thing!!!! By those that don’t want to hear it🤷‍♂️

Showing your naivety there.

The drop looks too severe, the reason is obviously the fund sellers.

The information isn’t from me it’s from Supreme plc who kindly have kept their shareholder information up to date.

Supreme didn’t have enough buyers to soak up the millions of shares being sold by funds hence it has dropped.

Time will tell if they are sold out.

[dr biotech] 02/6/2022 14:14

Not sure. Think that would be HL nominees, HL also have their own managed funds.