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SUP Supreme Plc

-12.00 (-9.49%)
06 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Supreme Plc LSE:SUP London Ordinary Share GB00BDT89C08 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -12.00 -9.49% 114.50 331,874 11:12:34
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
112.00 117.00 122.00 113.50 122.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Household Appliance Stores 155.61M 11.97M 0.1020 11.23 134.35M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:37:09 O 10,000 114.00 GBX

Supreme (SUP) Latest News

Supreme (SUP) Discussions and Chat

Supreme Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
06/12/202313:44Supreme imports floats on AIM1,055
11/1/200123:00SPERFRAME a Super Shell ?-
11/1/200123:00SUPERFRAME a Super Shell ?-

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Supreme (SUP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2023-12-06 16:37:10114.0010,00011,400.00O
2023-12-06 16:02:58114.246,5597,493.00O
2023-12-06 16:01:44114.246,5597,493.00O
2023-12-06 16:01:04114.353,0523,489.96O
2023-12-06 15:52:16114.35750857.63O

Supreme (SUP) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 06/12/2023 08:20 by Supreme Daily Update
Supreme Plc is listed in the Household Appliance Stores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SUP. The last closing price for Supreme was 126.50p.
Supreme currently has 117,333,835 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Supreme is £134,347,241.
Supreme has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 11.23.
This morning SUP shares opened at 122p
Posted at 06/12/2023 08:38 by johndoe23
Like I've said before, always some negative news that crashes the share price. Whether any substance or not.
Posted at 28/11/2023 11:45 by johndoe23
The only reason I'm not investing. Had great updates before ,then news of banning vapinv happens and the share price tanks. Not saying will happen again, just my thoughts
Posted at 28/11/2023 08:32 by edmonda
"Strong H1 results raise full year outlook"

New research report here:

The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith.

A series of initiatives – branding and pod vape developments in particular – mean that the Group can demonstrate a realistic strategy for the potential changes in the vaping market. Supreme also reports completion of its supply and distribution centre (the ‘Ark’), noting its capacity to support both organic growth and potential M&A opportunities, with £35.3m of borrowing facilities available.

Following the Group’s increased FY24 guidance (revenue raised 7%, and (adj.) EBITDA by 14% -17%), we have raised our outlook to revenue of £221.2m, +8%, and (adj.) EBITDA of £33.5m, +16%. We expect a FY24 total dividend of c.£5.1m, with £1.7m paid at the Interim. Our Fair Value is raised to 225p/share.
Posted at 24/11/2023 15:08 by gb904150
I topped up some more ahead of the interims next week.

Last TU suggests SUP is flying and each time they report the figures people realise how cheap it is.....followed by the FUD of 'banning vaping' which batters it down again. I just don't see a ban happening and extra regulation helps SUP and deters new entrants. SUP are an efficient consolidator and have the firepower to conform to any new regs.

Meanwhile they grow their number of users and actually make a profit from selling vape products, something that big tobacco could only dream of.

A general rule of thumb is that 1ml of e-liquid is about equivalent to 20 cigarettes. So, 10ml would be 200 cigarettes.

Heavy smoker might get through 10ml in a day. 10ml is the hero product. £1.
So a heavy smoker gets through £7/week.

vs cigarettes. £12/pack. £84/week.

So there is a major trend to move from smoking to vaping for both health and economic reasons. The cost of living crisis means smokers will become vapers.
Posted at 11/11/2023 19:32 by actscap
Here's the speech: part on smoking/vaping:My Government will introduce legislation to create a smokefree generation by restricting the sale of tobacco so that children currently aged fourteen or younger can never be sold cigarettes, and restricting the sale and marketing of e-cigarettes to children.Link to consultations being consulted on include: making it an offence for anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 to be sold tobacco products restricting the flavours and descriptions of vapes so that vape flavours are no longer targeted at children - we want to ensure this is done in a way that continues to support adult smokers to switch to vapes regulating point-of-sale displays in retail outlets so that vapes are kept out of sight from children and away from products that appeal to them, such as sweets considering restricting the sale of disposable vapes, which are clearly linked to the rise in vaping in children. These products are not only attractive to children but also incredibly harmful to the environmentregulating vape packaging and product presentation, ensuring that neither the device nor its packaging is targeted to children considering restricting the sale of disposable vapes, which are clearly linked to the rise in vaping in children. These products are not only attractive to children but also incredibly harmful to the environment exploring further restrictions for non-nicotine vapes and other nicotine consumer products such as nicotine pouches exploring whether increasing the price of vapes will reduce the number of young people using them introducing new powers for local authorities to issue on-the-spot fines (fixed penalty notices) to enforce age-of-sale legislation of tobacco products and vapes Supreme are taking proactive steps on many of the above points re. Pos displays, plain packaging, selling to established retailers etc.
Posted at 18/10/2023 13:29 by kalai1
Supreme plc issued a trading update for the 6 months ended 30th September this morning. Trading is in line with management’s expectations for FY24 revenue of around £195 - £205 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately £28 - £30 million. This would equate to FY topline growth of 28% and adjusted EBITDA growth of over 50%. The Elf distribution opportunity has exceeded initial expectations and contributed to around half of the reported revenue and gross profit growth in the Period. Profitability ratios are high, the balance sheet is solid. Valuation also looks very attractive with forward PE ratio at 6.9x top quartile for the sector, dividend yield at nearly 3.6% is decent too. Share price lacks positive momentum, there is no rush to buy. But SUP is certainly worth monitoring for the longer run...

...from WealthOracle
Posted at 18/10/2023 06:35 by edmonda
Positive trading update and vaping safety measures - new note & audio summary:

In a Trading Update for the six months to 30 September 2023, Supreme reports strong performance in line with a consensus market (adj.) FY24 EBITDA outlook of £29.0m; matching our estimates. The Group expects H1 24 revenue of above £100.0m (+55%YoY) and (adj.) EBITDA of at least £15.0m (H1 23: £8.1m). Previously, to accompany the 26th September AGM, the Group indicated FY24 revenue of £195m-£205m, and (adj.) EBITDA of £28m-£30m, leading to an increase in our (adj.) EBITDA outlook of 13%. Supreme reports that the Elf distribution agreement has exceeded initial expectations, contributing c.50% of H1 revenue and gross profit growth, whilst all of the other four Business Categories have reported both revenue and profits growth. The Group has guided to FY24 revenue from the Elf opportunity of c.£40.0m and a contribution to (adj.) EBITDA of c.£4.0m.

At the AGM, Supreme had reiterated its awareness of concerns surrounding youth vaping in the UK. The Group has now announced an eight-point series of measures and recommendations designed to “ensure its owned brands do not create any interest from underage vapers” (full details in the body of the note).

Following our recent AGM upgrade, our estimates remain unchanged and Fair Value remains at 200p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA of 8.2x.
Posted at 09/9/2023 19:26 by topvest
Supreme play by the rules. Sandy Chadha is a very rich self-made man and is perfectly entitled to make a donation to the Conservative Party. Many companies and individuals make political donations. No doubt everyone will jump on this, if it makes a good political story.

The only mistake, with hindsight, is using his private company with the word "Supreme" in the title as the press are too thick to differentiate between the two...and this makes a good story. I suspect it will continue to hit the share price and then blow over with time. It has no impact on current trading.

Vaping is very trendy at the moment and needs better regulation. However, most consumable products are bad for your health and/or the environment, if consumed to excess. Vapes are no different to alcohol, sugar, high fat, tobacco, no exercise etc. etc. People need to take personal responsibility, but they should definitely not be sold to under-18s which is something that Supreme are very clear about. Supreme are not the end vendor and so its a change in regulation that is required if shops are selling to under-18s. Maybe packaging rules will change as well.
Posted at 08/7/2023 10:57 by taursus

If one thing is clear about Supreme, it is that the numbers from Equity Developments are not very helpful. On April 17th, ED published a note, following Supreme’s RNS of the same date stating that adjusted EBITA for FY23 would be at least £19.3m, forecasting fully diluted adjusted eps for FY23 of 9.4p. The actual number for fully diluted adjusted eps, published this week, was 11.2p. ED’s numbers were therefore out by nearly 20%, even when given the adjusted EBITDA number.

Likewise, ED’s adjusted fully diluted eps numbers for FY24 and FY25 are not very helpful.

If ED’s numbers for FY24 (and FY25) are adjusted for a few assumptions, a radically different forecast for fully diluted adjusted eps is arrived at.

First, ED has Vaping sales for FY24 rising from £76m to £84m. This £8m increase looks light. A full year of Liberty Flights will add at least £2m, a full year of Cuts Ice, allowing for the sale of the T-Juice brand, a further £1m, and the recent Superdragon acquisition perhaps £3m. That makes £6m.

If the run rate of H2 FY23 Vaping sales (excluding acquisitions) is applied to H1 FY2024 that would add a further £8m v. H1 FY2023. That would make a total increase of £14m. If a 7.5% increase is then applied to H2 FY23 Vaping sales (excluding acquisitions) that would give roughly a further £3m increase in FY24, making £17m in total, £9m more than ED’s numbers.

If it is assumed, to be conservative, that the Vaping gross margin in FY 24 is 38% rather than 40% assumed by ED, the increase of £9m in Vaping sales, net of the lower assumed GP%, would give an extra £1.7m in PBT.

Second, using information given on this week’s call, then operating expenses for FY24, excluding any adjusted items, depreciation, and amortisation, should be the corresponding FY23 total of £21.5m (£28.2m total FY23 “Administration expenses” less £2.2m of depreciation, less £0.9m of amortisation, less £1.1m of fair value losses on forward contracts, less share-based payments of £1.46m, less acquisition costs of £1.0m), adjusted for:

1. Inflation of, say, £1m.
2. An increase in sales-related expenses of, say, £1m.
3. £1m of extra expenses relating to the Elf Bars deal. (The ED forecasts have an extra £3m of GP from this deal; to get to the guided £2m of additional EBITDA, £1m of extra opex needs to be included.)
4. £3.5m of opex was incurred in FY23 in respect of acquisitions, now fully integrated from the beginning of July 2023 at the latest. If £2m of these expenses can be saved (and savings on the £3.5m were plainly stated on the call), then that would give net additional opex of £1m for FY 2024 (ie, £22.5m).

The corresponding number in the ED forecast Is £26.5m (Opex of £33.3m per ED report less £2.5m of adjusted items, less £2.8m of depreciation and less £1.5m of amortisation). That is a difference of £4m.

The total additional PBT is therefore £5.7m, which would take ED’s adjusted PBT from £20.3m to £26m. If an adjustment is then made for amortisation of acquired intangibles (this will total £1.615m in FY24, before allowing for any more acquisitions), which Supreme does in presenting its fully diluted adjusted EPS, this gives fully diluted adjusted eps of 17p for FY24, 33% more than ED’s number of 12.8p.

The corresponding number for FY25 is around 20p, if modest sales growth of 5% is assumed in sales, a continued recovery in lighting and a full year’s contribution from the Elf Bars distribution deal (and an EBITDA contribution of £3m as hinted at on the call).

On top of this, now that Supreme has huge financial and logistical flexibility and capacity, acquisitions from distressed sellers could easily (and conservatively) add a further 1-2p of earnings in FY24 and a further 2-4p of earnings in FY25. They could all be fully integrated from day one, with little to no increase in costs below the GP line.
Posted at 06/7/2023 06:54 by tole Supreme building up firepowerWholesaler Supreme (SUP) is not only providing a strong performance within its existing business, but it has plenty of scope for new acquisitions, says Berenberg.Analyst Michael Benedict reiterated his 'buy' recommendation and increased the target price from 170p to 190p on the stock, which climbed 6.7%, or 7p, to 11.5p yesterday. Full-year 2023 results were largely in line and the key focus was instead the outlook for 2024, which Benedict said 'has certainly not disappointed, with a combination of strong performance in the existing business, alongside a sizeable new vaping distribution contract, both contributing to meaningful upgrades to our estimates'.On top of this, a 'core attraction of Supreme is its ability to leverage customer relationships to scale bolt-on acquisitions'.'The company has ended full-year 2023 in a strong balance sheet position, which should provide plenty of firepower for more earnings-enhancing acquisitions in the coming periods,' said Benedict.
Supreme share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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