Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[robbnw] 06/5/2024 22:02

Totally agree Superb prospect

[s34icknote] 03/5/2024 10:17

Eps about 20p ?

[gb904150] 03/5/2024 09:53

Interesting that all of a sudden this one is in demand. Seems like there's a solid buyer.

[basem1] 03/5/2024 08:47

No need to sell here this is going much higher Buy the dips

[basem1] 03/5/2024 08:10

Should be a clear run to around the 153 level and then a small pullback Based on the 3 year chart

[s34icknote] 02/5/2024 18:13

Looks poised to break out !!!

[scubadiverr] 02/5/2024 17:55

It's a bank holiday Monday 6th

[sharw] 02/5/2024 17:30

If closes at or above 137 on Tuesday 7th it will be 2 year high

Oops. Thanks scubadiverr - corrected.

[cheaky monkey] 02/5/2024 17:03

Nice breakout! New 52w high ??

[adamb1978] 29/4/2024 12:50

The dominant shareholder here isnt an issue for me. He's not close to the 75% level whereby he could acquire the company on the cheap by being able to force through special resolutions etc, and if he wants to pay a fair price for the company and take it private, I'm happy to sell him my shares.

In the meantime, his interest and mine should be broadly aligned

[carcosa] 29/4/2024 12:36

Aishah,

Several academic studies have found a positive correlation specifically between founder ownership and equity returns or operating performance metrics for smaller public companies across various markets. The effect tends to be more pronounced for small versus large caps.

Founders with large shareholders are statistically better as investments because companies where founders retain a significant ownership stake tend to have better share price performance on average. This is because founders' interests are more aligned with outside shareholders when they have "skin in the game."

Founders with large equity stakes tend to take a longer-term view in decision making versus professional managers. This can benefit share prices over multi-year periods.

For relatively small market capitalisation companies, the correlation between high founder ownership and better share price performance seems to be stronger based on available research.

For example:

[aishah] 29/4/2024 12:13

The issue here is a dominant shareholder which is probably why there's some reluctance to invest inspite of very good results.

[carcosa] 29/4/2024 11:25

In summary:
Supreme CEO Sandy Chadha discusses the company’s strong financial performance, future prospects, and industry trends in a Q&A session.

Highlights:
- Supreme’s adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to £38 million, with sales up 44% to £225 million.

- Despite regulatory uncertainty, demand in the vaping industry remains robust, with a shift towards pod systems anticipated after the ban on disposable vapes in April.

- Higher margins are expected with reusable vape cartridges, with plans to manufacture them in the UK.

- Supreme is in a net cash position, considering options like dividends, share buybacks, or strategic acquisitions to utilise cash (preferred option).

- The company’s other divisions, including batteries, lighting, and sports nutrition, are performing well, positioning Supreme for continued growth.

Anyone else thought the VOX video opening/closing sequence, including music, was a version from Proactive Investors?

[brummy_git] 29/4/2024 10:22

After last week's positive yearend trading update (re FY24 EBITDA almost doubling to £38m on sales up 44% to £225m) - CEO Sandy Chadha of FMCG products group Supreme took me thorough what's been driving the record results and upbeat outlook.

[adamb1978] 24/4/2024 18:49

sharw - its difficult for him to say the opposite! I'm not bothered either way - I was responding to the point that private equity would take them out. More likely that it would be the CEO IMO given that, as I said above, he owns >50%.

[sharw] 24/4/2024 18:17

AdamB1978 - taking private keeps on being raised but this is not so - the CEO, who is the largest shareholder, knocked that on the head again and commited to the listing at the last presentation. Listen from here:

[elrico] 24/4/2024 17:11

Supreme PLC (AIM: SUP), a heavyweight in the fast-moving consumer goods arena, has triumphantly announced a stellar trading update for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2024. This sets the stage for a highly anticipated audit of the financial results that are revealed on 2 July 2024.

Supreme has reported an eye-popping performance for FY24, doubling its Adjusted EBITDA to a minimum of £38 million from the previous year’s £19.4 million and propelling revenues from £155.6 million in FY23 to around £225 million. This notable ascent in profitability is complemented by Supreme’s ability to conclude the fiscal year debt-free while generating unprecedented cash levels.

TTtps://smallcompanychampion.substack.com/p/surpeme-plc-fb3

[adamb1978] 24/4/2024 10:07

I'd have thought that the CEO taking it private is more likely than PE. He owns >50% today so could easily raise the debt to buy the remainder. Good thing is that he's not at the level of ownership where he doesnt need to get instis on board with a take out price so the company shouldnt be taken private without a decent premium

[s34icknote] 24/4/2024 09:54

Eps 20 p ?

[brummy_git] 24/4/2024 09:00

Another cracking trading update from FMCG/vaping products firm Supreme today.

All the news & commentary here.

[basem1] 24/4/2024 08:30

Would they also consider taking it private

[gb904150] 24/4/2024 08:28

If the market doesn't value this properly I suspect it will eventually get taken out by PE. Mega cash generator and then wouldn't have the inconvenience of being a listed PLC and the vaping scrutiny.

[adamb1978] 24/4/2024 08:22

Thanks for posting. Their target price is more or less bang on what I have for the next couple years.

Its on a PE of around 6x despite a very strong track record, zero debt, excellent cashflow etc. Feels too cheap

[edmonda] 24/4/2024 07:27

"Trading update highlights scale of growth"

In a Trading Update for the twelve months to 31 March 2024 Supreme expects to report revenue of c.£225m, and (adj.) EBITDA of at least £38.0m, in line with market expectations, which had been revised upwards during the course of the year and represents almost double the FY23 level. The Group closed the year debt free.

Our outlook highlights the extent to which Supreme has expanded, through both acquisition and organic growth during the period. From 2020 to 2024E the Group will have grown sales by 144%; Vaping +3.9x and all other Business Categories outside Vaping (Batteries, Lighting, Sports Nutrition & Wellness and Branded Distribution) +31%. Notwithstanding the impressive growth track record to date, the Group remains committed to complementary acquisition opportunities.

On the same basis, FY20-FY24E revenue will have grown at a 25% CAGR (FY20-FY25E, 20% CAGR) and (adj.) EBITDA at a 24% CAGR (FY20-FY25E, 15.1% CAGR).

The update shows the scale of Supreme’s growth in recent years with FY24 backed by organic revenue and profit growth across all divisions. Comparison of our FY25E outlook with a group of (18) companies representative of each of Supreme’s core Business Categories highlights the Group’s relative discount on a FY25E EV/(adj.) EBITDA 4.2x multiple compared to an overall average of 11.0x. Our Fair Value remains 225p/share, indicative of 7.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA.

Link to report:

[basem1] 23/4/2024 10:06

Must be due a full year TU this week compared to previous years I would not want to be out of the stock for that