Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[ramellous] 25/4/2022 14:19

He mentioned a 4.6% dividend. So we are looking at a 5p final divi sometime?

[actscap] 24/4/2022 08:00

This is from Javed Khan who has been asked by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, to conduct an independent review on how England will meet its target of reducing smoking prevalence to below 5pc by 2030.

[actscap] 24/4/2022 07:58

E-cigarettes are likely to be a central plank of Mr Khan's proposals, despite some uncertainty over their long-term effects.He said: "I'm seriously looking at the possible promotion of vaping as a less harmful alternative to cigarettes. Because the bulk of evidence around the world is pretty clear that vaping is significantly less harmful. There are some people who disagree with that, but the vast majority don't."So there seems to be a strong case for the promotion of vaping, even potentially medicinally licensed vaping. So vaping on prescription, why not?" Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/23/big-tobacco-slapped-700m-tax-ease-nhs-smoking-burden/

[tole] 23/4/2022 12:44

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/hubfs/Research/Supreme/Supreme%20plc%20%20%2012%20April%202022.pdfSupreme plc (Listing AIM, Market Cap £188m)Trading Update - growth propelled by Vaping In a Trading Update for the year to 31 March 2022, Supreme PLC reports that it expects revenue of above £130.0m and EBITDA (adjusted) of no less than £21.0m based on strong organic growth in its core segments, augmented by strategic acquisitions. The Group expects continued profitable growth in FY23 driven by demand for its Vaping division products, partially offset by commodity price inflation impacting Sports Nutrition & Wellness division. The update indicates FY22 performance in line with our forecasts; our revenue estimate of £130.0m is revised to £130.4m. We have revised EBITDA outlook from £21.5m to £21.2m to reflect the impact of commodity price inflation in the Sports Nutrition & Wellness segment (12.1% of FY22 estimated revenue). Vaping remains the mainstay of performance, where Supreme expects to report 10%YoY growth in FY22 (33.4% of ED estimated revenue: 52.8% of ED estimated gross contribution) backed by the addition of Sainsbury's and Morrisons to its customer base. The Group highlights 2%YoY growth in the Batteries division (26.4% of FY22E revenue) and +5%YoY in Lighting (20.9% of FY22E revenue) with gross margin improvement.For FY23 Supreme highlights "double digit" growth prospects in its Vaping division. Despite FY22 growth in Sports Nutrition & Wellness revenue of over 130%YoY(E), profitability in this division was impacted by a combination of the increased price of whey and additional wage and transportation costs.We remain fundamentally positive for growth prospects in Supreme's leading Vape division where we expect the contribution to gross earnings to have risen from 45.1% in FY20 to just under 60% by FY24, propelling an increase in total (pre-forex) gross margin from 28.0% to 30.5% over the period.Our positive outlook for Vaping offsets near-term pressure on the Sports Nutrition & Wellness segment so that our revenue outlook to FY24 is unchanged. Our FY23 EBITDA (adj.) outlook is £22.0m from £24.0m, an 8.2% reduction, and in FY24 6.6% lower, taking a conservative view on the medium-term trends in energy and commodity prices which have already impacted a broad range of sectors. Taking these factors into account we adjust our fair value to 230p/share.

[dougmachin] 23/4/2022 11:26

The whey powder products are sold at 12-15 quid. Everything else Supreme are selling are at much lower price points with 3-4% or 4-5% increases. So they are passing on these smaller increases as it's a small %age of a small price.

But for the powder products, they are considerably more expensive already. And the %age price increases are more significant. So they can pass on some of the increase, but passing it all on would certainly mean loss of sales as getting folk to shell out 12-15 quid is already much harder than buying the much cheaper products. Increase those powders to 20 quid selling price and you've lost customers.

They're building the business and market share and so are taking a temporary hit on the margins of whey powder products. Important to know that it's temporary. And I kind of feel they're looking at the worst case scenario as they're buying as much as they can in advance.

And when the prices come down, the business immediately benefits, before forecasts get revised, which will result in 'beating expectation' type trading updates.

[topvest] 23/4/2022 09:41

The view was it was more difficult in the wellness area as you miss the key price points, but in other areas costs increases are being passed on.

[shanklin] 22/4/2022 21:49

Any comments please on just increasing price? Seems the simplest way to maintain margins

[topvest] 22/4/2022 20:24

Yes, thanks - I watched and was reasonably reassured. It's a difficult time for any business, but the CEO here is going to be a big success medium to long term. Looking forward to the ride over the next 10 years!

[actscap] 22/4/2022 17:21

Thanks for the update - really useful.

[boonboon] 22/4/2022 17:00

Thanks for the update much appreciated.

[cockerhoop] 22/4/2022 16:23

Yes, short presentation followed by several questions.

No real revelations but a random selection of my notes

£16m wellness rev (up from £7m), Sea Lions going well (Pet range next), Millions only Ok. Q4 margin compressed due to Whey Protein.

Vaping growth at 10% obscures higher growth in bulk of business (HMPPS & Online growth lower) Morrisons added Jan 22 and new innovations being progressed.

M&A likely in Vaping and Wellness. Planning to spend the new £25m RCF. Suspect the price of Whey will break some competitors and lead to cheap acqs.

Mentioned international plan in lighting. Vaping too difficult due to changing regulations in individual countries.

FY22 numbers - comfortable and conservative. M&A likely to make them obsolete.

[boonboon] 22/4/2022 16:01

Did anyone listen to the presentation?

[johndoe23] 21/4/2022 14:14

Nice tick up on decent volume. IMC presentation tomorrow...

[topvest] 14/4/2022 13:08

I have registered - should be interesting.

[dougmachin] 14/4/2022 12:22

Yep, definitely worth tuning in for.

[edmonda] 14/4/2022 12:05

#SUP - save the date! 22nd April Investor Presentation post recent Trading Update

Supreme (AIM:SUP), a leading manufacturer, supplier and brand owner of fast-moving consumer products, will be conducting an Investor Presentation webinar following the recent publication of their Trading Update for the 12 months ended 31 March 2022.

The presentation will be hosted by Sandy Chadha, CEO, and Suzanne Smith, CFO.

The event will take place at 12.00pm on Friday 22nd April.

The online presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.

Register here:

[topvest] 13/4/2022 16:17

These are looking quite attractive on a forward P/E of 11.5. Forecasts were maintained at 12.6p EPS for FY22 and a 6.6p DPS. Next year, forecasts were reduced from 14.3p EPS to 13.6p EPS and a 7.3p EPS. So, the froth has come off Supreme as its no longer thought of as a growth share because it might have a flat year. This is the market for you. Of course its a growth share medium term. Some good top-up opportunities may be available as the traders move elsewhere.

[danb45] 13/4/2022 11:23

well I've added a few more at 152.5p, might be premature who knows ??

[miti 1000] 12/4/2022 16:02

Can't say I agree with that. Its about gaining market share in a fast growing sector.The prize is big and its worth the short term pain.

[shanklin] 12/4/2022 15:25

Yep, a pretty generous interpretation of SUP apparently not having pricing power. Just amazed they haven't already pushed through price increases... ...or at least committed to pushing them through shortly.

[danb45] 12/4/2022 15:17

pretty positive interpretation of todays SUP results - basically gets a thumbs up ??

[dougmachin] 12/4/2022 15:08

Both brokers have SUP as a buy, target price of 230p.

Berenberg Bank - Owen Shirley
Equity Development Limited - Andy Brown

From their previous 240p / 250p.

So, from this point, share price has a potentially bigger upside compared to yesterday!