Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[fozzie] 15/10/2024 06:13

DLAR sells its authentication arm for 300M.

[robsy2] 14/10/2024 17:28

Can’t make it David but I’ll catch up later.
I love the presentation, both style and content. Zero spin,Very refreshing,oozes confidence and honesty.

[davidosh] 14/10/2024 07:33

Spectra will be featured and analysed on the Mello BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell or Hold) tonight if any of you would like to watch...

Join us for MelloMonday tonight at 5:00pm. The programme for the evening is as follows:

5:00pm An introduction to Lucius Cary of Oxford Technology
5:30pm Company presentation from Transense Technologies plc
6.10pm Educational Presentation
6:30pm Company presentation from Newmark Security plc
7:00pm Budget special
7:15pm BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell, Hold) Panel

For more information, click here:
There are lots of interesting sessions and all annual pass holders and individual ticket holders will be sent a recording of the show within 48 hours of registering. For half price tickets, use code MMSTOCKO50.

[gnome3] 14/10/2024 07:24

I like the comment in Red about the Cartor acquisition: -

"Spectra is not interested in being a “holding company” and hence
shareholders should expect that we will alter their business to achieve
success with polymer and increase profits as needed."

Stick to your knitting!

[rimau1] 14/10/2024 06:48

There is a lot of detail which is great. Also love the retro 90s style powerpoint presentation with lots of words and bullet points and no pretty pictures. Are they being ironic or did they put the powerpoint together in 30mins last night. Either way i am a long term holder and happy to add on weakness leading up to 30Oct

[shanklin] 14/10/2024 06:20

As per today's RNS, well worth a read for those who didn't attend the recent presentation



It contains a lot more detail than the H1 results RNS

[death by donut] 02/10/2024 15:51

Watched the Paul Scott vid , with regard to SPSY and I'm not quoting exactly. He likes the stock and holds and thinks a '25 p/e of 8 is the , wrong price , I think were his words.DbD

[nico115] 02/10/2024 15:43

Brilliant thanks 325p seems low I'm at 350p and if we win polymer then a 3 or 4 bagger .

[pj 1] 02/10/2024 15:32

He originally tipped it some time ago, maybe over a year ago now.

[death by donut] 02/10/2024 14:49

Good it's getting coverage, just hope ST liking it doesn't cast the kiss of death .DbD :-)

[zho] 02/10/2024 14:42

The link should work fine but you can only read the first couple of paragraphs - the rest is behind a paywall:

This stock's earnings upgrade cycle will keep turning

Simon Thompson: Technology group is building momentum as it wins more lucrative contracts

* First-half adjusted pre-tax profit up 6 per cent to $6.2mn
* Huge central bank contract underpins earnings estimates
* EPS growth of 31 per cent (2024) and 114 per cent (2025)
* Forward PE ratio of 8.2 (2025)
* Net cash set to rebuild strongly

Chief executive Nabil Lawandy of Aim-traded technology group Spectra Systems (SPSY:239p) is “highly confident of delivering record results for the full year”.

It’s easy to understand why after the leader in banknote authentication, brand protection technologies, security printing and gaming security software won a huge $39.6mn (£29.8mn) sensor manufacturing contract with a central bank shortly after the half-year-end. Although the majority of revenue from the contract – the third successive win from the same client in as many decades – is expected to be received between 2025 and 2027, with a trailing manufacturing contract worth $4.5mn per year thereafter, the contribution to this year’s result will still be significant.

[nico115] 02/10/2024 14:38

Can't open

[zho] 02/10/2024 14:35

This stock's earnings upgrade cycle will keep turning

Simon Thompson: Technology group is building momentum as it wins more lucrative contracts

[zho] 02/10/2024 09:37

Paul Hill to interview Paul Scott at 2pm, including lots of stock ideas such as #CARD, #SPSY, #OTB, #GMS, #BKS, ….

[philly cheesesteak] 01/10/2024 09:20

PJ1, the share price action here is almost exactly the same as IGP / Intercede after it announced a major new contract on 5/12/23, which significantly upgraded it's near term expectations. Shares hit 100p on 6th December, but you could still buy them for 106p in late May.

It was only when the final results were published on 18/06 that shares properly broke higher as more retail investors saw how cheap it was. IGP now trades at 205p.

SPSY is forecasting FY25 EPS of $0.388p, which is 29p at current FX rates. That means it's trading at 8x next years earnings vs 17x this years. That anomaly will surely resolve itself over the next 12 months, the key question is how close it remains to the current 17x PER.

I'd say if the 'poised for first polymer orders in early 2025 comes off', it could easily retain the 17x rating on >29p EPS, which would see shares in the £5 region.

[pj 1] 01/10/2024 08:54

I agree although my 'review' target is a little lower at 320p.

Maybe if Spectra had a long pole that usually hits mud, sand or water 1000's of feet down below ground, or some wonder drug that will cure all ills but takes decades to never quite get there, then the share price would be higher.

[nico115] 01/10/2024 08:48

$100m of cash generated over next 6 years ..So increased divis ,special divis and acquisitions . FTSE 250 in the making . 380p target WITHOUT polymer orders !!

[philly cheesesteak] 30/9/2024 08:41

Zeus research note today;

"SPSY has been in advanced trials with a Middle Eastern central bank, with multiple other direct active prospects identified, and strategic qualifications with three banknote printers. The Middle Eastern central bank opportunity has developed into a highly collaborative interaction, fuelled by the bank’s desire to spread supply of substrate to another capable and financially stable supplier, and having met exacting standards, is now poised for first orders in early 2025."

vs comments back in March;

"SPSY has been in advanced trials with a Middle Eastern central bank, with five other direct active prospects identified, and strategic qualifications with three banknote printers. The Middle Eastern central bank opportunity has developed into a highly collaborative interaction, fuelled by the bank’s desire to spread supply of substrate to another capable and financially stable supplier."

This appears to confirm that the trials have been successful and an invitation to tender RNS is imminent?

Also note the annualised operating free cash flow yield (excluding working capital movements) is over 10% in H1, I doubt it's ever been higher? A re-rate is surely imminent.

[gnome3] 30/9/2024 07:28

Yes, I suppose announcements create liquidity if you want to sell up. Things look to be on track for the full year expectations, but the interesting part of the announcement for me is news of the polymer substrate progress.

"Our polymer substrate efforts have yielded important and tangible results with both state printers as well as corporate printers of banknotes. We have successfully passed all of the print and durability testing with our middle eastern central bank partner and potential customer. We currently expect to have three house notes produced by major polymer banknote printers in the 2024-2025 time frame using both our sustainable and our machine-readable polymer substrate. In addition, we have been asked to advise a second middle eastern central bank on the development of their future polymer notes."

Interest seems to be building for Spectra's polymer note technology.

[boonkoh] 30/9/2024 07:20

Someone quite desperate to sell out this morning on the results...!(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[zho] 29/9/2024 11:10

>>Any forecasts out there?>>

In March we heard that “The Board therefore believes that the Company is on track to achieve record earnings in 2024", now forecast to be 21.2c (15.8p).

I'd be more than happy with a confirmation that they are still on track to meet forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

[harrogate] 29/9/2024 06:41

No forecasts around for the 6 months but would like to see a number and narrative that suggests we might beat current FY estimates. What we really need is news on Fusion progress to kick us on from here I think

[nico115] 28/9/2024 13:12

Figures Monday :Any forecasts out there ?

[brucie5] 26/9/2024 09:04

380025 Sep '24 - 20:48 - 6375 of 637
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380025 - I'm a very unsophisticated investor, so for this kind of info I'm generally happy to rely on Stocko, on the understanding that their data can be off by a point or two. In particular their given dividends are never to be relied upon and I - along with many others i suspect- have pointed this out, to no avail.
I hold SPSY in a 3rd party trust account on behalf of a life time beneficiary dependent on the income, which holds the specific challenge of growing the folio while paying out all the dividends with additional non-discretionary management charges on top. In addition trusts are only allowed 50% of standard CGT, which itself has been reducing each year by 50%, so it is difficult to trade up to achieve growth. So I need to find on the one hand shares that supply high dividends and on the other, shares that - while being cash generative and shareholder friendly -simply grow over time and can be left largely alone; SPSY belongs to the latter category along with PLUS, IGG, and a few others like SSE, which I chose to recycle when it slashed its own dividend.
Not seeking to bore you but merely to explain the relative attractions of a business like SPSY; so long as it remains on course to grow while paying dividends, I'm not fussy. Needless to say, in this situation, dealing costs are something I need to avoid as that just creates another drain on capital.
In conclusion, I'm a fan of SPSY, though I don't actually hold it on my own account at the moment. but that's another story.
;)