Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 01/10/2024 09:54:01

I agree although my 'review' target is a little lower at 320p.

Maybe if Spectra had a long pole that usually hits mud, sand or water 1000's of feet down below ground, or some wonder drug that will cure all ills but takes decades to never quite get there, then the share price would be higher.

[nico115] 01/10/2024 09:48:15

$100m of cash generated over next 6 years ..So increased divis ,special divis and acquisitions . FTSE 250 in the making . 380p target WITHOUT polymer orders !!

[philly cheesesteak] 30/9/2024 09:41:43

Zeus research note today;

"SPSY has been in advanced trials with a Middle Eastern central bank, with multiple other direct active prospects identified, and strategic qualifications with three banknote printers. The Middle Eastern central bank opportunity has developed into a highly collaborative interaction, fuelled by the bank’s desire to spread supply of substrate to another capable and financially stable supplier, and having met exacting standards, is now poised for first orders in early 2025."

vs comments back in March;

"SPSY has been in advanced trials with a Middle Eastern central bank, with five other direct active prospects identified, and strategic qualifications with three banknote printers. The Middle Eastern central bank opportunity has developed into a highly collaborative interaction, fuelled by the bank’s desire to spread supply of substrate to another capable and financially stable supplier."

This appears to confirm that the trials have been successful and an invitation to tender RNS is imminent?

Also note the annualised operating free cash flow yield (excluding working capital movements) is over 10% in H1, I doubt it's ever been higher? A re-rate is surely imminent.

[gnome3] 30/9/2024 08:28:21

Yes, I suppose announcements create liquidity if you want to sell up. Things look to be on track for the full year expectations, but the interesting part of the announcement for me is news of the polymer substrate progress.

"Our polymer substrate efforts have yielded important and tangible results with both state printers as well as corporate printers of banknotes. We have successfully passed all of the print and durability testing with our middle eastern central bank partner and potential customer. We currently expect to have three house notes produced by major polymer banknote printers in the 2024-2025 time frame using both our sustainable and our machine-readable polymer substrate. In addition, we have been asked to advise a second middle eastern central bank on the development of their future polymer notes."

Interest seems to be building for Spectra's polymer note technology.

[boonkoh] 30/9/2024 08:20:02

Someone quite desperate to sell out this morning on the results...!(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[zho] 29/9/2024 12:10:27

>>Any forecasts out there?>>

In March we heard that “The Board therefore believes that the Company is on track to achieve record earnings in 2024", now forecast to be 21.2c (15.8p).

I'd be more than happy with a confirmation that they are still on track to meet forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

[harrogate] 29/9/2024 07:41:43

No forecasts around for the 6 months but would like to see a number and narrative that suggests we might beat current FY estimates. What we really need is news on Fusion progress to kick us on from here I think

[nico115] 28/9/2024 14:12:03

Figures Monday :Any forecasts out there ?

[brucie5] 26/9/2024 10:04:29

380025 Sep '24 - 20:48 - 6375 of 637
----------------------------------------
380025 - I'm a very unsophisticated investor, so for this kind of info I'm generally happy to rely on Stocko, on the understanding that their data can be off by a point or two. In particular their given dividends are never to be relied upon and I - along with many others i suspect- have pointed this out, to no avail.
I hold SPSY in a 3rd party trust account on behalf of a life time beneficiary dependent on the income, which holds the specific challenge of growing the folio while paying out all the dividends with additional non-discretionary management charges on top. In addition trusts are only allowed 50% of standard CGT, which itself has been reducing each year by 50%, so it is difficult to trade up to achieve growth. So I need to find on the one hand shares that supply high dividends and on the other, shares that - while being cash generative and shareholder friendly -simply grow over time and can be left largely alone; SPSY belongs to the latter category along with PLUS, IGG, and a few others like SSE, which I chose to recycle when it slashed its own dividend.
Not seeking to bore you but merely to explain the relative attractions of a business like SPSY; so long as it remains on course to grow while paying dividends, I'm not fussy. Needless to say, in this situation, dealing costs are something I need to avoid as that just creates another drain on capital.
In conclusion, I'm a fan of SPSY, though I don't actually hold it on my own account at the moment. but that's another story.
;)

[3800] 26/9/2024 09:03:47

Thanks for the replies, the shares just got a bit cheaper still this morning so I bought some more 3800

[pj 1] 26/9/2024 09:00:29

Ref earnings per share

Company reports can be a minefield themsleves, often including basic, adjusted (for one'off's) and even underlying earnings per share.

Market forecasts then can confuse yet again. Stockopedia uses what is called 'normalised' eps, which takes account of one offs and uses the maximum number of shares, including future options which are basically free money for Director performance.

IMO the key is to use the same provider so the data is consistent. But even there problems arise. Stockopedia often has wrong figures or shares in issue as its data comes from a 3rd party (or at least used to)

Good luck!! 🤣

[zho] 26/9/2024 08:25:35

>>...they are showing EPS of 28.18p for 2025, market screener are showing 37.1c. Does any one have a more reliable forecasts?>>

SPSY reports in dollars, and over the past couple of months 37.1c has converted to a range from 27.7p to 29.2p as cable has varied.

Confusingly, Stockpedia is currently showing a forecast of 44.4c but it seems safer to go with the 37.1c quoted by Brucie5, above.

[death by donut] 25/9/2024 21:21:30

Sharepad consensus is 24 , 25 , 2618.2c , 38.3c , 23.3cCan't format , just a builder bloke.DbD :-)

[3800] 25/9/2024 20:48:03

Hi Brucie5 I just read your forecasts off stockopedia and looked at forecasts off morningstar they are showing EPS of 28.18p for 2025, market screener are showing 37.1c. Does any one have a more reliable forecasts?

[pj 1] 25/9/2024 19:43:58

Maybe not lol

[pj 1] 24/9/2024 14:53:29

Next step up commencing?

[death by donut] 23/9/2024 14:44:31

Ah ok , thanks PJHappy sat here waiting for Nicos £20 anyway.DbD :-)

[pj 1] 23/9/2024 14:10:06

Not Mello IMO

It had an update yesterday on hxxps://smallcompanychampion highlighting current share price weakness and disconnect to newsflow.

[death by donut] 23/9/2024 13:47:30

Bit of Mello Monday buying?Nice tick up anyways.DbD

[pj 1] 02/9/2024 20:17:46

Itsa very poor site and begs the question what its used for

it clearly states ''welcome P....... B.... on the left hand side, but when I search anything for Spectra it says i need to register with no link supplied

Clearly I have registered if the know my bloody name.

[pj 1] 02/9/2024 20:09:26

pieric- thank you.

[pireric] 02/9/2024 20:04:39

If you qualify as a self-certified sophisticated professional investor (in the tick box) then you can sign up and access the Zeus Cap research here I think

hxxps://zeuscapital.co.uk/log-in/research-portal-login/#/portal/zeus-capital/research/bd4db8c5-720d-423d-ade4-c7cb88570b9b

Eric

[pj 1] 02/9/2024 19:41:54

Any chance of a copy of these forecasts?

No one is factoring in the cash generation or growing cash balance/ dividend possibility?

[pireric] 02/9/2024 19:18:44

There is a weird quirk in the Zeus forecasts now because of the authentication orders, which may be holding back the share price. 2027 is probably the bigger issue than 2026

Revenue forecasts are £55/55/52m for 2025/6/7
Adj. EPS scenarios are 28.5p/17.9/11.9 for 2025/6/7

Eric