Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 27/5/2025 11:45:55

The increase in HH , the $4.6m raise and renegotiation of the debt plus conversion of debentures to shares has helped to reduce debt a little (but less cash at hand) and drill these next two wells. Effectively increasing the life of the zombie company by a year or so. The debt still has to be repaid by end Dec 2026 or be extended

[croasdalelfc] 27/5/2025 08:29:48

Q1 results out and it's another horror show even with revenue at its higher for 5 Quarters due to much higher HH prices .It's still not clear if they have started to repay debt or just pay interest on Credit facility. 2025 liabilities are $2.8m and they repaid $1.4m in Jan so perhaps they will repay this $2.8m this year.The equity raise cash will be burnt through by end year if they drill 2 wells . To drill 3 wells they are relying on HH above $4.5/mcf imo.400boe is still shut in plus decline in the Q was 5%. Production for Q2 will be just ~1700boepd rising to ~2600/3000 by end July with one new well online. Then decline sets in. They will need to complete the second and third well by October to get anywhere near the promised 4k production by end year. That will cost $7.5m some of which needs to come from cash flow . Let's see

[croasdalelfc] 14/5/2025 12:27:08

Ouch - shut in 20% of production and a financial dispute - always messyThe RNS implies current production has dropped to ~2000 boepd before the shut in.Let's see what they get from the drill - should know IP30 sometime late July - 850 boepd is my guess and by the end of the year down to ~500 boepd .Even if they complete all 3 wells this year at a cost of $7.5m I doubt production will be above 3500 boepd - ie the same as 2 years ago except they have raised $4.6m and spent $7.5m

[croasdalelfc] 29/4/2025 09:35:01

I estimate the creditors will have had $8m returned as interest plus a possible $4m in principal payments from an outlay of $17m by end 2025With over $12m still outstanding. Nice business for them

[croasdalelfc] 29/4/2025 09:03:44

Results for 2024 out today - truly horrific though they somehow managed to raise $4.6m net in March 2025. They tried and failed to raise $6m gross.

They stayed afloat by defaulting on debt covenants twice (paying $800k penance) and by selling $3.4m in equipment and cashing in a hedge.

They cant repeat that trick again. NB the value of their Plant and property has reduced by £12m (25%) in a year.

Decline in Q4 was only 3% indicating their current inventory is in the tail of the decline curve and probably would 'only' decline 12-15% per year going forward.

But the fund raise is to complete 3 DUC's and possibly to drill two vertical wells - cost is 3 x $2.5m plus 2x $3.5m = $14.5m and projected production of 4kboepd by end 2025. This is nonsense unless they complete all three DUC's by Xmas - very unlikely imo.

They only raised $4.6m and their debt headroom has been reduced to just $5m (from $10m) so to complete this program they need substantial cash flow from operations and to use the small cash in hand that they have.

In my opinion they will complete a well every 6 months of so for the next 18 months or so - and never drill the 2 vertical wells . Production will be topped up by 800boepd every 6 months and decline rapidly ...... the zombie company will continue in the same vain. The directors will get paid their handsome salaries.

At some point THOUGH they have to start repaying debt as the principal repayments and interest is now around $400k per MONTH.

In late May we get Q1 results - income should increase as HH prices rose in Q1 but production will decline to ~2150boepd. What will be interesting is whether they are actually paying off debt (or deferring) , the cash in hand after paying $1.45m debt at end January 2025, and the fund raise net proceeds - though the fundraise conveniently completed in Q2 so the financials might be opaque

[croasdalelfc1] 09/4/2025 10:17:32

Results in 2/3 weeks

[croasdalelfc1] 09/4/2025 07:22:11

So shares in issue doubled ! 166m plus 166m warrants. Holy bananas!! $5m raised which is less than the $6m asked for .$300k fees paid in shares Will the complete 3 wells . Will the drill 2 others. Total cost is at least $11m. let's see

[croasdalelfc1] 02/4/2025 08:36:20

Ok so looks like debentures accepted - they get 102.5% plus interest etc in shares at 3.8p ~72million shares - presumably the placing will close next week and Admission of new shares on 9th AprilQ4 and 2024 results follow at end April and Q1 2025 end May -production will be below 2000boepd$5m added to debt to drill and complete 5 wells for $11m . Interest is 15% on probable gross debt of $23m - eye watering at $3.5m a year and NO timetable for paying off even one cent of that debt

[croasdalelfc1] 01/4/2025 18:56:35

Admission supposed to be tomorrow 8am - conditional on raising all $6m .Long stop date is 7th April ie placing termination date

[croasdalelfc1] 01/4/2025 07:54:54

April fools day - surely an RNS today :)

[tag57] 31/3/2025 12:29:39

Probably further negotiations to squeeze the price. Can obviously smell managements desperation!

[croasdalelfc1] 31/3/2025 11:39:47

The longest placing on record! Will it close today . It was supposed to be 8:00am GMT

[croasdalelfc1] 24/3/2025 08:14:36

Placing should close today - perhaps in Canadian time . Let's see the shares in issue and if they raised the full $6m

[croasdalelfc1] 18/3/2025 07:45:23

I read through this placing properly . On the bull side - 5 potential new wells by the end of the year - sounds good on paper. $11m all in but the raise is only for $6m so an extra $5m from debt .Debentures will be issued shares so gross debt only rising $2m or so.On the bear side - The placing implies two Mechanicsberg wells (vertical wells!) will be funded by cashflow - maybe , maybe not ! New Shares in issue . 111m from placing. 75m from debentures conversion and 50 million warrants at 5.3 . Shares in issue to double to ~320m plus warrants. I doubt the share price will ever rise above 6p again

[croasdalelfc1] 17/3/2025 08:14:40

This is the BS from the last raise:All of it overpromised and vastly vastly under delivered. 970boepd promised and 817boepd delivered at IP30. I think they delivered 0.5Bcf in the first year and will take 10-15 years to get payback if at all-- Southern intends to conduct a US$5 million equity fundraise to accelerate the completion of its four drilled and uncompleted ("DUC") wells, drilled as part of its Q1 2023 drilling campaign on its Gwinville acreage;-- The accelerated completion of the DUCs is anticipated to be accretive to Southern through the addition of approximately US$20.5 million(1) in proved developed producing ("PDP") NPV10 value;-- The Company expects the DUCs, once completed, to have initial production (IP30) rates of approximately 5.6 MMcf/d per well, with expected ultimate recovery per well of approximately 4.3 Bcf;-- The DUCs are forecast to have a per-well payback period of approximately 12 months, with an associated IRR of 108% and NPV10 of US$4.4 million per well(2) ;-- Subject to the successful completion of the DUCs and achieving production rates as set out above (and assuming one completion a quarter* and strip commodity pricing as at 5 October 2023), Southern would expect to generate next 12 months total operating cash flow (3) of approximately US$20 million, resulting in an annualised net debt to EBITDA ratio(3) of approximately 1.0x in Q4 2024(1) , with n ext 12 months corporate free cash flow(3) expected to increase to approximately US$13 million, an increase of approximately 114% on a per share basis following the planned Fundraising(1) ;

[cat33] 16/3/2025 22:25:51

Good at raising money - but will Southern make ithttps://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jim-s-letter-march-16-2025Nice summary

[beaks44] 15/3/2025 08:50:37

Yet Malcy continues the positive spin....his credibility is highly questionable.

[tag57] 15/3/2025 08:41:05

At what stage does raging optimism become lies and fraud?

[croasdalelfc1] 15/3/2025 07:33:01

There will be close to 300m shares after the placing. There were 78m when I first looked at SoU 3 years ago. Unbelievable dilution . 385%

[croasdalelfc1] 15/3/2025 07:22:23

So the last fundraiser in Nov 23 was for $5m at 15.5p and was supposed to pay for 4 DUCs . It paid for one which is currently producing around 120 boepd or $2750 revenue a day.This fundraise will pay for one more DUC NOT 3 which will boost production to around 3000 boepd but quickly decline back to under 2k. The zombie just got a life extension of perhaps one year. Mugs in the city and mug punters are paying for that . Other shareholders shafted again . Heavy dilution on heavy dilution .Debt repayments will mop up the rest of this equity raise

[farrugia] 13/3/2025 12:11:30

you got new and an update lol - this was ramped a lot i remember - people telling me here this is as cheap as chips - once they said something similar on another board regarding Vodafone. Always be sceptical.

[croasdalelfc1] 24/2/2025 00:00:49

There has been no news from the company for 12 months - other than their statutory declaration of quarterly results and issue of small amounts of shares - zombie company indeed

[croasdalelfc1] 18/2/2025 08:07:13

The 'new' DUC completed in Dec 23 and online from Jan 24 had a staggering 83% decline in its first year . It's produced 140boepd in Dec 24.Remember when the board touted that declines would be 40-60% .... The zombie company continues its zombie state . Q1 production likely has dropped close to or below 2000 boepd - a >50% drop in a year. But as they are on the long tail of the decline curve - perhaps they will finish 2025 with 1700 boepd without completing another DUCNews flow is now only what they have to legally issue. April for 2024 Q4 and whole year results . May for Q1results.Total debt and debt interest will be interesting