Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 06/12/2024 05:54

Q3 2023 production was 2814 boepd - this was before the Jan 2024 DUC.Q3 2024 production was 2336 boepd with the Jan DUC contributing 199 boepd during Q3So base 1 yr decline is 2814-(2336-199) =677/2814=0.241*100=24.1% That is a startling figure given the base assets are at the tail end of the decline curve .With no DUC completion in prospect for another quarter - production is certain to dip further towards 2000 boepd. They need 3 DUCs fracked a year just to maintain production - that's $6m to $9m capex. Further drilling is out of the question

[julianlau] 29/11/2024 09:34

Revenue rose 60% to £8.1 million, driven by the Bus Repowering business, which contributed £3.9 million. However, high operational costs, particularly in Bus Repowering, resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of £7.4 million. To address this, the company is shifting focus to higher-margin areas such as drivetrain supply, EV components, and licensing agreements.


hxxps://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/EQIP/1034

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2024 08:09

More sales to fund debt - that's only sustainable short term .Lenders are putting on a squeeze?A couple of notes in the MAnagment discussion. More debt payable within 12 months and $1.7m by end January 2025Red flags for a placing or day for equity etc

[halfpenny] 15/11/2024 17:43

Yeb thanks

[tag57] 15/11/2024 07:52

Very bullish Halfpenny, you must have posted on the wrong thread!

[tag57] 14/11/2024 08:19

How many DUCs do they have left to complete? TBH I would be surprised that they have the money left to complete another one.
Not sure why anyone would fund anything further either.

[croasdalelfc] 14/11/2024 06:38

Q3 results are due My predictionsProduction down to 2250boepd - a 3 year lowrevenue ~ $3.2m a 3 yr lowexpenditure:Royalty $0.64mG&A $0.90mOpex $1.1mProduction Taxes $0.12mTransportation $0.3mCapex $0.2mFinance costs $0.9m and risingTotal costs: $4.2mAnnouncement they will complete another well in Q1 next year

[tag57] 30/9/2024 14:30

Impressive decline, but in the wrong way!
Even the Henry Hub price can’t save this one.

[croasdalelfc] 30/9/2024 14:11

The 'new' well is shockingly bad.Having peaked in Jan at 817 boepd it is now a paltry 190 boepd (end August) . A 77% decline in 8 months and heading for 90% decline in a year.June 245July 217Aug 190Probably less than 100 boepd by Jan 2025.

[halfpenny] 21/8/2024 10:37

..wot a 4x

[croasdalelfc] 20/8/2024 06:41

Looks like my prediction was pretty much spot on :$3.9m revenue and 2578 boepd.Expenditure ~$4.4m .They gained $1.3m selling equipment .Another 3 months of the gravy train for the board then.Q3 is halfway through. Very poor HH prices and further depletion.It's probable production will be below 2300 boepd and revenue ~$3m for Q3

[bountyhunter] 17/8/2024 08:04

Talking of placing cash I still recall participating in a placing some time ago where there was much talk of an accretive acquisition. At that time there was a company target of 25k boepd to progress to. Instead they just frittered away the lion's share of that money imho. Yes I've joined the dissolutioned club!

[croasdalelfc] 17/8/2024 07:17

And Q3 production ? Probably 2400 boepd or less - basically what they were producing 3 years ago.Revenue probably ~$3.2m .That $5m placing cash from last year is rapidly running out

[croasdalelfc] 16/8/2024 09:32

the new well produced 245 boepd for June.

Results for Q2 and H1 are due next week - I would say production ~ 2600boepd

revenue ~ $3.8m

expenditure:
Royalty $0.75m
G&A $0.95m
Opex $1.3m
Production Taxes $0.15m
Transportation $0.35m
Capex $0.2m

Finance costs $0.8m

Total costs: $4.5m

Lets see ...

[croasdalelfc] 18/7/2024 07:54

Nice - I held AXL from 13p but sold to find a house purchase in early 2023.No mortgage is a lovely feeling but I'm no cash rich anymore. Invested in AET , JSE and SQZ/Dec for dividends - though slowly selling out of DEC as they cut divi by 3/4HH is going sub $2 again - historically high gas storage, mediocre weather (not hot enough) , producers turning taps on again and reduced LNG exports (Freeport still shut after Hurricane) all contributing.At some point it will turn - I'm tempted to go long HH ~ $1.90

[tag57] 18/7/2024 07:25

Yes thanks, Croas. I keep an eye on the thread even though I sold out a while ago.
Luckily some of my other investments have more than offset this and some of my other losses. I wish all my investments were like Arrow 😎.

[croasdalelfc] 18/7/2024 07:19

Hi Tag - hope your doing well .

[tag57] 17/7/2024 07:18

Croas, as long as the management keep getting their options I am sure it will all work out. 😳

[croasdalelfc] 17/7/2024 06:52

The 7 wells drilled & completed and on production are currently (May) producing a paltry 705 boepd between them - they cost upwards of $70m .

Decline of the magnificent 7 since January is a startling 48% though that is mainly the new well.

The legacy 6 older wells have declined from 530 to 417 boepd. Yes they average 69 boepd. One well is down to 48 boepd and is less than 1 year old.

Payback for the 7 is probably over 20 years - if ever.

[croasdalelfc] 06/7/2024 11:44

288 boepd for May for the new well. 65% decline since the peak in January. A likely 280 boepd average for Q2 alongside base production decline of 5% would mean Q2 gross production of ~2600boepd - 15% decline in the Quarter.Each new well they bring online costs ~$2m in completion costs after the ~$10m drill and replaces the decline for another 6 months. It looks like the boards gravy train will roll on for another year or so unless debt cost catches up with them . 15% interest on the loan and 10% on debentures is steep . They have a repayment holiday until September - but at some point the debt will catch up with them

[croasdalelfc] 07/6/2024 12:28

The new well averaged a truly appalling 300boepd in April - shockingly bad. A 67% decline in just 4 months and headed for 90% in the first year.These drills and completions happen after board meeting with AFE - approval for expenditure and sent to the frac crewsI can only imagine the conversation. Hey guys we need to do 3BCF in 2 yrs at $4/mcf to get our money back - should be easy peasy ! ! PS don't mention opexThe reality is the well will never payback the $10m drill cut and it will take 18in the to pay back the DUC cost of $2m

[croasdalelfc] 28/5/2024 07:18

Production up just 200boepd from Dec to end Q1 - even though the new well averaged 620boepd in the period.That implies base production is ~ 2400boepd and probably at the tail of decline so ~ 15% a year.The new well is declining rapidly and will contribute ~350 boepd this Q. So overall decline likely to be 15% in Q2 to 2600 boepd offsetting any increase in HH and premiumsI note interest on debt is a whopping 15% and they have moritorium on repayments until Sept. Convertible debentures are due end June - probably more shares to be issued