Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 07/1/2024 08:47

This is on DEC but also related to the HH gas price..



"Meanwhile it’s interesting to see Henry Hub up 15% at $2.90/mmbtu on the hint of colder weather.."

[bountyhunter] 04/1/2024 12:53

29th Nov + 6/8 weeks only takes us to around mid January so I would expect an update around then if producing after 6/8 weeks.

[croasdalelfc] 03/1/2024 16:01

For those interested the DUC that was fracced just before Xmas is this one:



Frac job approved 29th Nov.
It takes 3/4 weeks to frac and complete - for $3m capex

Then production starts 3/4 weeks after that.

So result wont be online before end Feb. The company might update before that.

[croasdalelfc] 03/1/2024 15:45

I just looked at the mississippi website and added up November total production for the 6 wells drilled in 2022 and completed in 2022 and early 2023.

It is grim reading .

The combined total production for November was 611 boepd.
The 3 latest wells were a complete failure.

The City Bank drill heralded as a new reservoir never produced more than 95boepd is currently at 82 boepd.



The third well had to be sidetracked and has only 3 months production. it peaked at 181 boepd and is already down to 123boepd.




$60m spent on these 6 wells - currently revenue is approx $250k a month. The first 3 might pay as HH was $5-9 for a few months of their production. The latest 3 will never pay out.

[bountyhunter] 28/12/2023 12:05

I've just noticed that the price went up in Toronto yesterday after the London close, hence the rise here with the LSE listing playing catch-up.

[tag57] 28/12/2023 11:47

I would have thought having to issue shares to settle interest would have the opposite effect on the sp?

[bountyhunter] 28/12/2023 11:26

Have I got today's chart upside down?! ;)

[jailbird] 20/12/2023 08:18

KSYou input is also appreciated

[bountyhunter] 20/12/2023 08:07

The Diverse Income Trust plc have acquired a 3%+ holding notified today.

[king suarez] 15/12/2023 10:47

Croas,

To echo jailbird - thanks for posting your thoughts on SOUC. I didn't like what I read (as was invested) but you have been correct and I think it was you who looked in detail at the production and flow rates of the wells? Which caused me to check and verify - I got out at a loss. ATB all!

[jailbird] 14/12/2023 08:28

You and Mount Teide are the most knowledged and sharing investors I have come across in the O&G sector So thanks Happy and healthy new year to all here

[croasdalelfc] 14/12/2023 08:00

Hope my commentary helped some folk - investing is not a binar, I win, you lose . We should all help each other . PS I rarely invest in stocks outside oil and gas sector as it's a sector I've researched for many years and hopefully know quite well, and I've never shorted a stock only Brent and HH occasionally.I don't like leverage - too risky for meBCE news today is another example of an overhyped aim tiddler trying to reinvent a very old basin and failing. Oil has been extracted in that region for 70 years - even RBD looked at those assets 5 years ago and didn't invest

[jailbird] 13/12/2023 13:29

Thanks for your updates and analysis over the last couple of months , been useful and decisive Do not see consider buying back in the near future

[bountyhunter] 13/12/2023 13:17

I agree we need some colder weather to improve the outlook.

[croasdalelfc] 13/12/2023 07:44

The US is choking on gas - record production - very high inventories- mild weather and new LNG export plant delays - Golden Pass delayed by 6 months

[croasdalelfc] 13/12/2023 07:42

The Company expects the first well to be on-line before the end of the year, with IP30 rates likely available towards the end of January 2024. Cost estimates for the completion of the 14-06 #3 well are anticipated to be $3 million or less as the Company intends to take advantage of the deflationary service cost pressures since the last wells were completed. Follow-on completions are anticipated in the first half of 2024, depending on natural gas pricingWith HH staying lower for longer this is throwing $3m down the rabbit hole. I suppose that $2.2 or $3.2 per mcf won't make too much of a difference . Over the first 3 months of production it would be less than $500k - chicken feed when they burn $300k a month

[bountyhunter] 10/12/2023 18:52

Maybe in anticipation of colder weather and stronger pricing as winter progresses towards the coldest months of the year.

[croasdalelfc] 10/12/2023 08:53

Do they really want to complete a DUC with such weak HH prices - HH outlook is very poor for the next 3 weeks . Warm weather and weak demand over holidays . HH prices are nearly as low as when they pulled the plug on the capex programme around 10 months ago

[croasdalelfc] 03/12/2023 11:45

No problem - beaks - hope you do well This is the only real UK listed AIM share with exposure to HH pricing given DEC is massively hedged and soon to be on NYSE listing. I hold some for dividendI3E is the only other as HH and Canadian gas pricing are interlinked.

[beaks44] 01/12/2023 09:55

I appreciate your insight CD. It was a touch painful but ive sold out here. How Malcy retains a 150p target i dont know. Im just about all in on Sqz, jse and Axl. Good luck to holders.

[bountyhunter] 30/11/2023 11:51

Yes they hit a high pressure significant gas resource but their equipment failed due to the high pressure, now it's taking forever to resolve that problem and actually get the gas online, latest is a repeat drill I recall. All covered by insurance apparently but presumably not the significant delay.

[croasdalelfc] 30/11/2023 09:26

Another is ZPHR (exRose) - an old play with new tech and new horizons in Utah desert.Good initial drill share price boosted by interviews and hyperbole. Placing to buy old conventional assets! And then what? 3 years doing diddly squat in Utah . Still the directors had a nice Thanksgiving

[bountyhunter] 30/11/2023 08:45

I have a few of those either treading water or worse, all to often it's the jam tomorrow story with Aim shares followed by dilution. Oilman J has been pushing PRD, still marginally above the placement price (I don't hold those).

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2023 23:09

Fair comment Croas, thanks for the explanation. Aim shares generally have underperformed significantly over the last year or so and this is very clearly is no exception. To be honest I wish that the ISA rules had never been extended to allow Aim shares (some years ago now) as with the exceptions of SQZ and NCYT my best performers have all been on the main market.