Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 28/5/2024 07:18

Production up just 200boepd from Dec to end Q1 - even though the new well averaged 620boepd in the period.That implies base production is ~ 2400boepd and probably at the tail of decline so ~ 15% a year.The new well is declining rapidly and will contribute ~350 boepd this Q. So overall decline likely to be 15% in Q2 to 2600 boepd offsetting any increase in HH and premiumsI note interest on debt is a whopping 15% and they have moritorium on repayments until Sept. Convertible debentures are due end June - probably more shares to be issued

[croasdalelfc] 06/5/2024 06:30

The new well : total C&C cost ~$12m January production (peak) 827 boepdMarch production 438 boepdTwo month decline 47%Likely 12 month decline >70%This well is the worst of the Selma chalk wells drilled so far - only the City BankWell performed worse.The next two DUCs to complete are in unproven horizons - last chance saloon springs to mind

[loafingchard] 26/4/2024 11:20

No trades so far, so it appears everyone has already sold?

[bountyhunter] 26/4/2024 07:16

So much for the "Disciplined growth strategy targeting >25k boe/d".

[croasdalelfc] 26/4/2024 07:13

I think they wrote off $38m

[bountyhunter] 26/4/2024 07:02

It's the EPS figure that struck me. With no WT in the US you would have expected better despite the low gas price but unfortunately that has been disastrous despite the hedging.

[croasdalelfc] 26/4/2024 06:57

$75m spent on capex in 2 years to increase production by 100 boepd . And remember 400 boepd were bought for $3m

[croasdalelfc] 26/4/2024 06:42

Total $26m debt . Interest increased to 15% per annum on the prinicipal$4.3m Debentures due for repayment in 2 monthsNo increase in yearly production after spending $40m !They want to spend the remaining $10m fracking the last 3 wells which were drilled in unproven reservoirs - Lower Selma Chalk and City Bank. The last City Bank drill was a disaster.If they spend all $27m debt interest alone will be $4m a year!Too much in that MD&A to type on this phone .

[bountyhunter] 24/4/2024 21:04

Get a life.

[andymunchkin] 24/4/2024 18:57

Jungmana13 Jun '22 - 08:24 - 21 of 2842
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Simply, a cash cow :-)
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smraynot21 Jun '22 - 15:45 - 102 of 2842
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Jungle drums are beating,news imminent buy buy buy.imhho. virtually all buys today, someone in the know🚀㉀0;🚀🚀🚀
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bountyhunter13 Jun '22 - 13:37 - 28 of 2842
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another small top up @88
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bountyhunter24 Jun '22 - 11:55 - 212 of 2842
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I'm expecting an acquisition or other corporate action or new drilling within four months and a day :)...
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bountyhunter23 Apr '24 - 13:32 - 2842 of 2842
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I'm out completely now and fear you could be right about another cash raise.
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onceA ramPingCnT alWays a RamPingCnT. hunting Foxes Today boUnts

[bountyhunter] 23/4/2024 12:32

I'm out completely now and fear you could be right about another cash raise. I still recall an earlier cash raise for a substantial sum which we all expected to fund an acretive acquisition but somehow they managed to fritter away!

[croasdalelfc] 23/4/2024 07:19

Results - perhaps later this week - will make interesting reading - net debt and working capital cash especially - though the results are only until end Dec 23. Debt over $20m is highly likely . Cash below $5m after spending placing cash on a frac.The saving grace is that HH prices were highest during Q4 2023 - around $3/mcf . So around $5/6m revenue but still loss makingQ1 averaged $2/mcf - dire Financing expenses in Q4 could top $1m Convertible debentures to the tune of $4.3m mature at end June 24.... More shares on their way .... That's a certainty

[croasdalelfc] 16/4/2024 15:48

- sorry it cut before posting:....Less than 100 boepd by Xmas . A ~$1.5m revenue for the first year before royalties(20%) , transportation, tax, interest, G&A etc etc. ie didly squat for the most productive months of the well for a $12m outlay....That is not my idea of FCF.. The question is : when will they go bust or when is the next placing .....

[croasdalelfc] 16/4/2024 15:43

Production for Feb was updated today for the new well - 570boepd for 29 days - my guess below wasn't far out.The well is now in decline and probably will be producing

[pparekh20] 16/4/2024 12:33

Ok agreed there may be some dilution, as the gas prices are pretty much rock bottom.

This stock is essentially a bet on the North American gas prices, and whether we think these will increase. A cold winter will obviously help in the short term, but I think Marcellus / Permian / Haynesville will be reaching peak gas production soon, which will have an impact on the long term price.

[croasdalelfc] 16/4/2024 05:55

What FCF? They are losing money daily and have been for over a year - debt is piling up - interest alone is over $2m per year .A fund raise would I suppose be possible to keep the lights on until HH prices get above $3/mcf - maybe next winter maybe not at all if the companies currently mothballing production decide to complete their DUCsAs for the latest well - Feb production is due - my guess is around 550 boepd or $6600 a day for a well costing $12m. Payback will never happen.

[pparekh20] 11/4/2024 12:56

Feeling that this is well placed for a good H2 2024. They are going to first complete their DUCS on 14-06, 13-13 and then prioritize new drilling with their free cash flow.

In general, I can see North American gas prices exponentially increasing, when the market realises that the Marcellus & Haynesville & Permian are about to plateau.
NA gas prices will gradually converge with European and Asian gas prices.

North American gas cannot stay this cheap because their resources will not last forever. Also, given the fact that they have lots of new LNG terminals coming online, domestically they consume 90 mm bcf / d +. So we are going to start to see some natural gas nationalism over the next few years.

North American Natural gas feels like the new Uranium. After studying the thesis, this is the way i am playing North American natural gas markets. Feeling very bullish. Good luck all!

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2024 14:10

Previously DEC have said that they get (and have received) a premium to the Henry Hub price for unhedged production. Hedging in place to the end of 2025 at significantly higher prices of over $3/MMBtu also needs to be taken into account.

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[croasdalelfc] 29/3/2024 16:29

SOUC get more than the Waha Permian prices below but all basins are suffering. Probably around $1.60/mcf

[croasdalelfc] 28/3/2024 22:51

.....The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, remained negative this week at -$0.05/MMBtu yesterday, up 21 cents from last Wednesday. The Waha Hub traded $1.49 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.83 below the Henry Hub price. The Waha price reached an intraweek low of -$0.70/MMBtu on both Friday, March 22, and Monday, March 25. The Waha price has been negative since March 11 due to a combination of warmer weather that has reduced natural gas consumption and ongoing maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline system, which delivers gas westbound out of the Permian Basin....Can we pay you to take away this gas ...Thanks

[croasdalelfc] 05/3/2024 07:09

A summary thread on large US producers who have announced production cuts hTTps://x.com/bluegoldr/status/1764758461764469012?s=46&t=6X1g83YbY4t-D9n0LuuFngIt amounts to around 5/6 BCF/d which is around 5% of total US production . That should put a floor under HH of at least $2/mcf by end March .Weather is still a big factor . All eyes on inventory builds through the Summer. Also most of these can easily ramp production once prices hit whatever IRR they have in mind .

[bountyhunter] 04/3/2024 13:14

HH back up above $2 today: