Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2023 19:32

It intrigues me that many AIM listed micro/small caps easily hoodwink investors with claims of future riches from drilling old established plays: they use new tech or new seismic or horizontal drilling as the USP to drill old plays that the majors have investigated and discarded . Take BLOE in Georgia, SOUC in Ohio/Mississippi, UKOG at Horsehill, BCE in Germany is another. RBD got hoodwinked in Romania and the US and have poured millions into West Newton with zero result

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2023 19:24

I sold my last shares last August after the £25m placing when the IP30 results on the first wells were clear that management was full of BS. The great thing about all US wells is that you can look up production figures online. Well by well, month by month. I was the first to publish those disappointing numbers on here and in a twitter group. I held for a while and then sold immediately after the placing - which came immediately after the exaggerated IP30 of the first well.Remember managements claims in June and earlier months. 'Transformational wells' and results , they predicted 1500boepd per well , lower than average decline (40%) . 10000 boepd target, 25000boepd longer term target. All BS

[jailbird] 29/11/2023 16:05

you still holding bounty?

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2023 15:35

Presumably you are no longer invested Croas. Just wandering why you are still following this so closely given that you clearly see this going nowhere?

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2023 15:25

In my view they will string out the $12m for a year or more to keep the gravy train rolling - one well at a time to negate the natural decline of the wells .

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2023 15:21

They suggested that after the placing completed

[tag57] 29/11/2023 10:45

Croas, have they also changed their intention of bring on all 4 DUCs (reason for the placing) to now just one and wait and see what gas prices are for the rest?

[croasdalelfc] 29/11/2023 09:13

They were loss making on the bread and butter of revenue vs expenses.$5.2m revenueMinus $1.05mroyalty, Minus $1.76m opex and . Minus $816k financingMinus $977k G&AMinus $400k transportationThen add capex spent $1.7mProduction decreased even with the 400kboepd they bought in the Q!!It looks like they have $10m plus the placing proceeds to spaff down the drain. $3m earmarked for one well.That will keep the hamster wheel turning for another quarter.Q4 production will be down again - just from declines. The only highlight was decent forward hedging pricing as I see HH going lower for longer.

[croasdalelfc] 27/11/2023 21:21

Everything I read points to the US market being oversupplied in 2024 even with some new LNG export facilities opening in H2 2024. HH going lower for longer unless , unless there is a severe winter.

[croasdalelfc] 24/11/2023 08:28

Doubt it will rise much even though draw season has started - record production and high storage negates any cold weather spell. It will take an extended cold spell to get to mid 3s

[bountyhunter] 23/11/2023 18:01

HH on it's way up again.

[croasdalelfc] 20/11/2023 08:42

Q3 results this week I reckon:Best guess$4.2m revenue - max (19% goes to royalty)$0.5m to interest payments $1.7m opex tax and transport costs$1.7m G&ACapex $3m workovers etcNet debt ~$28m-$30mCash at hand ~$12m inc placing

[croasdalelfc] 17/11/2023 08:59

US Natgas storage is high . HH going nowhere

[croasdalelfc] 10/11/2023 07:52

Interesting chart on US LNG export capacity until 2028 .Extra capacity doesn't kick in until late 2024 and with Permian wells getting gassier - production is likely to match . Needs a long cold winter to get HH into the 4s

[tag57] 09/11/2023 22:40

Thanks Croas.

[croasdalelfc] 09/11/2023 17:40

Certain persons discharging managerial responsibilities (PDMRs) of the Company have participating in the Fundraising via the Subscription and Prospectus Offering, acquiring a total of 746,055 new Common Shares representing gross proceeds of US$0.14 million (GBP0.12 million, C$0.19 million)£120k all in

[tag57] 09/11/2023 16:12

Wonder how much management invested in this placing.

[bountyhunter] 09/11/2023 15:57

US$5 million successfully raised at 15.5p, let's hope they use it wisely!

[bountyhunter] 04/11/2023 16:57

Malcy will say anything for a free lunch! (imho)

[beaks44] 04/11/2023 13:21

And yet Malcy retains a target of 150p. It's been an expensive lesson for me following his sugar coated bluster.

[king suarez] 03/11/2023 11:49

It appears we weren't sold an accurate picture on the economics and well performance. Shame.

[croasdalelfc] 03/11/2023 11:06

The economics of the wells is shockingly bad and shows the placing projections to be a complete sham.

The best performing well from the early 2022 drills has produced just 0.9BCF in 15 months and brought in probably under $5m revenue. Most of that was in the first 4 months - over half . They were extremely fortunate to get the best HH prices for 10 years in those first 4 months yet still the economics are terrible

Decline is 88.5% in 15 months and current production is 115boepd (down from 915 boepd)

To reach the $10m drilling cost would take 5-7 years perhaps more.

For this one well from July 2022 to July 2023 production is down 87% and revenue is down 96%!! : July 2023 pulled in $55k gross!!

The DUCs have similar economics but with HH at $3.6 not $7-8 . Payback likely to take 10 years imo

[king suarez] 02/11/2023 14:21

Another loss, another bad investment - ho-hum. As they say on Drago's Den "Ahhm oat!"

[bountyhunter] 02/11/2023 13:45

TSE:SOU has opened down now despite no move yesterday after the news was announced well ahead of the Toronto close.