Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 02/11/2023 14:21

Another loss, another bad investment - ho-hum. As they say on Drago's Den "Ahhm oat!"

[bountyhunter] 02/11/2023 13:45

TSE:SOU has opened down now despite no move yesterday after the news was announced well ahead of the Toronto close.

[little minx] 02/11/2023 12:18

Although no longer hold I read that Canada are not interested in the stock because it operates in the US.

[andymunchkin] 02/11/2023 11:07

Croasdalelfc18 Aug '23 - 07:06 - 2658 of 2748
0 1 0
No point extracting gas (for high capex) when HH prices on their ass. Mid 2024 might see a rise into $4 range until then it’s hunker down - reduce capex - preserve cash ie don’t use up credit facility . But decline rates don’t stop so unfortunately a placing is probable in the next 6 months
——-
nOtbAd. AnOther p&d by bOuntyMuTT

[bountyhunter] 02/11/2023 08:36

It's odd that TSX:SOU didn't move after the announcement.

[croasdalelfc] 02/11/2023 07:13

$12m to complete all 4 wells . As I said I reckon they will complete one and try to use cash flow to complete second etc etc. most of the gas/oil is produced in the first 6 months of production .This is typical short cycle US shale tactics to use cashflow and debt to fund drilling except this is on a mini scale with just 4 DUCs Where are the prospects of 10kboepd or the pie in the sky 25k mentioned time and again to entice investors. This is just running the capex/short cycle cashflow hamster wheel to keep the lights on. All the while burning cash which isn't theirs.

[sos100] 02/11/2023 07:07

Is there any half decent tsx listed stocks....from what i've seen most have been disasters?

[chessman2] 01/11/2023 23:14

I also took a heavy loss a few months ago.

Was the TXP ceo, who was with them for a year or so, bad luck or did he see the writing on the wall and bail out!!??

[jailbird] 01/11/2023 22:21

Great analysis and the correct call Croas.. well done

[jailbird] 01/11/2023 22:19

Failed to be shocked nowadays but glad I stayed out of these AIM is a total lottery,you be lucky to find a few good companies nowadaysI expect to see a market correction not crash though next year

[jungmana] 01/11/2023 22:14

Can't see this still on the market by summer unless a miracle happens. Took my loss months back and added to my i3e.Gla

[croasdalelfc] 01/11/2023 21:44

They have spent a staggering $68m in under 2 years on capex to drill 10 wells and complete 6 of them with the net result of a production increase of around 800boe a good portion of which is gas selling at $15 a boeNow they want another $5m - undoubtedly a portion of that will go to pay off the $2m a year interest on loans . It's odds on the only complete one well with this $5m . Q3 results due in ~3weeks - and this placing will gloss over the horrific accounts once again - the ever deepening debt, the royalty payments not paid , the declining production

[tag57] 01/11/2023 21:07

Thanks Croas, the stupid thing is I could see the finance issues months ago but expected the management team to be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat, unfortunately there was no rabbit and no hat!!.
I will be selling up in the morning and putting what money I have left into something more useful.
Good luck to all continuing holders and fingers crossed SOUC actually does better than I expect.

[jungmana] 01/11/2023 21:06

One DUC completion a quarter? Then the 4 will take a yearSubject to the successful completion of the DUCs and achieving production rates as set out above (and assuming one completion a quarter* and strip commodity pricing as at 5 October 2023)

[bountyhunter] 01/11/2023 16:50

You were right Croas!

Except a bit sooner than you had anticipated.

15.5p

Surprisingly Toronto hasn't moved, yet.

"Southern intends to conduct a US$5 million equity fundraise to accelerate the completion of its four drilled and uncompleted ("DUC") wells, drilled as part of its Q1 2023 drilling campaign on its Gwinville acreage;

-- The accelerated completion of the DUCs is anticipated to be accretive to Southern through the addition of approximately US$20.5 million(1) in proved developed producing ("PDP") NPV10 value;

-- The Company expects the DUCs, once completed, to have initial production (IP30) rates of approximately 5.6 MMcf/d per well, with expected ultimate recovery per well of approximately 4.3 Bcf;

-- The DUCs are forecast to have a per-well payback period of approximately 12 months, with an associated IRR of 108% and NPV10 of US$4.4 million per well(2)..."

[bountyhunter] 18/10/2023 12:05

Henry Hub gas is still rising today, and not far off the EIA predicted trajectory..

HH gas price forecast (EIA) ......

[jailbird] 18/10/2023 08:18

yes got it, in the office now.

That explains market reaction - thanks for analysis, funny how company missed out vital details like this, and leaves it for the clever investors to work it out

[croasdalelfc] 18/10/2023 08:10

The maths says placing by January

[jailbird] 18/10/2023 07:21

Croas,

pls do it 4 me as I am reading on the train and losing connection and preserving battery

[croasdalelfc] 18/10/2023 06:52

What is the cost of those four fracs? $1m per well?$2m per well?$3m per well?Proppant alone is around 12000 tons per well @ $50-$70 a tonWater use is 1.5M gallons a well.Headroom for cash is ~$10m Interest on the loans is $500k a quarter out of $4.2m revenue a quarter.Royalty payments are 19% of that $4m .Do the maths

[bountyhunter] 17/10/2023 16:42

Good to see that London largely recovered by the close falling in line with the less volatile Toronto market.