Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[vatnabrekk] 18/1/2025 13:18

"where is the money going?"

The money is going to the licence holder, NNPC, because production is below the base line of 10,500 and it seems that COPDC don't get paid anything until production reaches 10,500.

That is what the good Doctor is telling us.

[htrocka2] 18/1/2025 12:58

Dr...even 8,000 a day (Say) $70 a barrel equals 560,000 p/day...times 365 days per year comes to well over $200m a year......where is the money going?

[dr rosso] 18/1/2025 12:52

Onwards to 2024
"Drilling of New Production Infill Wells

The operational team is finalising the overall work scope planned for the Abura drilling programme for 2024. Drilling of the first two of the new production infill wells focused on established horizons is expected to spud during Q2 2024 and the second in H2 2024, in line with the 2024 programme. These are expected to add a further 4,000 bopd of gross production from the Abura field. A third new infill well is also expected to spud during H2 and this target will be assessed as part of the ongoing appraisal of the Abura field as the team builds on its knowledge base through each new well."

Nice work, good positive optimistic stuff. Except, couched in "expected to", that none of this is true. The AWP Phase 1 Abura drilling prog never got started. At Jan 2025 it still hasn't begun. They are atm putting together a new FDP and will submit it for approval. 2024 was given over to a series of workovers on 3 of the 15 existing production wells on the field.

AR 2023 Page 15
"Following on from the planning work in 2023, which was completed in 1Q 2024, rigless workovers were conducted on the 8L and 11L wells in 2Q 2024.

Abura 8L was re-entered to a total depth of 11,120ft targeting the 5AB4 reservoir. A linked gun was positioned to perforate the targeted formation. The formation was successfully perforated and initially tested, flowing at over 1,000 bbls/d to surface for over 24 hours. The operational team then proceeded to install sand screens which stopped the hydrocarbons flowing from the 5AB4 reservoir. In light of this it was concluded that Abura 8L will be worked over to a shallower zone during 2025. The 5AB4 reservoir will be scheduled for an up-dip in-fill well based on the Field Development Plan studies carried out
during the period.

Abura 11L was re-entered to a total depth of 11,890ft targeting the 1AB1 reservoir, the shallowest undeveloped reservoir in the AB1 group. Following the successful perforation at 11,890ft pressure levels were confirmed; however, on retraction of the perforation gun, work was halted at 11,454ft due to wire line failure. The reservoir potential has been confirmed and a rig is required to complete the workover.

Abura 4L was drilled to a depth of 11,887ftss (12,779ft MD). 4L Producing interval- 2AB4: 10,181-10,185ftss (10,922- 10,926 ft MD). OML 65 operations team ran a Gyro to acquire deviation data for studies. Abura Well 4L Job was completed and SCSSV was re-installed and handed over to NEPL Production team and is now flowing to OML 34 Processing Facility."

From the above we can see that only Abura 4 is a success. This allows Tende to release a production figure of 10,040 in the AR signed off on 30 June 2023. As with the previous year's 13k, this may well be another spike, rather than continuous flow.

Because of the lack of commencement of the AWP Drilling Prog consisting of 9 infill production wells, the KPI targets for incremental production are not met. Whilst NEPL will get the benefits of 3.5m barrels produced, Tende/COPDC will receive no oil revenue income for the whole of 2024.

Tende's 2 representatives were Martin Richards and Philip Day, respectively Subsurface Consultant and Drilling Supervisor. Both of these qualified personnel have now left a Project which has floundered over two years. Tende recommendations going unheeded, having resort to "low-hanging fruit" which turned out to be unproductive. Reports indicate that the COPDC/NEPL partnership has been antagonistic, under-performing, with high cost overruns. Tende is copping for this with high interest charges on the Trafigura drawdowns and, of course, no income whatsoever. The July 2023 Presentation portrays a promising outlook. Unfortunately it completely omits the KPI which related to the Abura AWP.

Consequently a massive loss of $48m declared for 2023 and an equally staggering $85m debt to Trafigura.


In the meantime the Tende BoD, misrepresenting the true picture, awards itself over $2m p.a., including bonuses.

[dr rosso] 18/1/2025 12:35

Green light, all systems go, "immediate cash-flow entitlement". What could go wrong?


Well quite a lot actually, mainly because of the T&C of the FTSA between COPDC and NEPL. The previous 2 years, pre-Tende, had seen EOR techniques up production from 9000 to 10,500. On Tende's takeover in Dec 2022, this was established as the base figure.

"Immediate cash flow" was proudly stated by Kuti but this phrase is very misleading. It omits any ref to the t&c. A little dyor reveals that entitlement is dependent on KPI. These Key Performance Indicators are a range of pre-agreed targets, largely related to increased/incremental production volumes.

Under COPDC operatorship throughout 2023, production did not increase from base. In fact, it went down, as shown by the year's average of 8000 bopd. Instead of reporting this figure accurately, Tende chose to issue, by way of a 6 Dec 2023 email update, a completely artificial production spike of 13k, so giving a misleading impression of all going well.

Again, from 6 Dec
"The subsurface work entailed an ongoing review of the existing static and dynamic models of the Abura field, incorporating the latest production and pressure history. This subsurface data modelling combined with the ongoing field production data across 15 wells/strings enabled the team to identify several high-impact workover opportunities on existing wells which could add material production.

As a priority, these opportunities were ranked in a work programme of near-term well interventions with Baker Hughes who mobilised a team on site performing well interventions on the first series of wells: Abura 8L and Abura 11L which are expected to be completed at the end of December and are expected to add 1,000-1,500 bopd"

In other words, 15k bopd by end-Dec 2023. Later to be revealed as av. 8k. 2023 was spent entirely on preparation work, sub-surface data modelling. Zero increase in production (in reality minus 2,500) means zero cash flow.



htrocka2 13 Dec '23 - 131865 DR...are you telling us that OML65, for which the bod have claimed 'start-up' bonuses, has not started drilling or produced any oil yet?

Yet at the 12 Dec 2023 agm, nothing was said to indicate the absence of drilling or cash flow. Attendees came away from that meeting with no idea what Tende/COPDC's entitlement was. No ref to 13k, 15k or any cargo lifted during the year.

[htrocka2] 18/1/2025 10:43

This lot should be very careful borrowing money from companies that have been accused by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of Manipulative Conduct...

[htrocka2] 18/1/2025 10:06

It makes one wonder if there may be a problem with the partners?



'This strategic acquisition, secured through direct negotiations with the Angolan government,'

[vatnabrekk] 17/1/2025 22:43

I don't think this means that Louise Hough is a non-exec director of Tende, because it doesn't say so on Companies House, but she is a NED of Harbour energy.

[rugbybloke] 17/1/2025 22:22

The office junior was obviously bored with nothing else to do

[oliversanvil] 17/1/2025 17:15

The African state has been rewarded with USD 53 million for joining forces with the US to fight oil industry corruption.

[htrocka2] 16/1/2025 23:39

As this is only 4 months old...I thought I'd post it for the benefit of Dr's earlier post...

Archie Hunter
Commodity trading reporter (LinkedIn)
(I couldn't copy and paste it as my name was recorded)


'Trading house Trafigura Group is building out its presence in petrochemicals, as demand grows for what has historically been niche area of the oil market.
“We’ve grown our petchems business over the past few years, with traders now based in Houston, Geneva and Singapore specifically focused on it,” Ben Luckock, the company’s head of oil trading, said in an interview.

Huge growth in Chinese petrochemical output has become one of the oil market’s main drivers of demand, due to continued growth in the use of plastics. It’s an area some of the world’s biggest energy traders are investing in, as volatility in crude prices eases and demand growth wanes for traditional fuels like gasoline and diesel.

“We’re not saying we’re at peak demand for transportation fuels yet, but the growth profile in those areas, versus the growth profile in petchems, is very different,” Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim said in the same interview.'

[htrocka2] 16/1/2025 15:49

vat. OK I got that the wrong way round....the assets are 'in hock'.....that makes the shares worthless. Take the $50m loan out against the assets and stip out what you can while you.....This lot haven't made a single penny profit in 17 years yet have managed a good living out of it by forward selling anything they get their hands on....Do you really believe they'll start making a profit for shareholders after 17 years?......They'll keep stringing us along until they run out of money, feeding the mushrooms with plenty of B/S to keep the dreams alive. (and off the bod's backs)

[aventador] 16/1/2025 13:58

Doubt the bod care if this went under they've already made enough to retire on we've all been duped here some at more cost than others! It's all relative though and a disgrace with no mention of relist they better have some answers at the AGM !!!

[vatnabrekk] 16/1/2025 13:19

Something serious and co-ordinated needs to happen at the AGM.

[dr rosso] 16/1/2025 12:08

Sherl0ck's classic textbook business model, analysed over a period of 17 years, shows a succession of promised transformational deals which transform into nothing. No explanation is ever offered for non-materialisation. A series of failed acquisitions supported by loans incurring exhorbitant set-up costs, high drawdown fees, and high rates of compound interest. These loans are "repaid", either by taking out further loans, or by distributing copious amounts of low-price shares to the lender.

The only real achievement I can see is securing a twin funding package consisting of $215m and $661m for the development of OML 65. Despite this, the return to Tende Energy over the past 3 years, during which time Abura field has produced ten million barrels of oil, has been zero. Lining other people's pockets.

With virtually no income to speak of, other than loan money, the Ds have awarded themselves over $20m in salaries, bonuses, expenses and share payments. Share options now total 707m, all exercisable at well under 1p. 417m of those options, exercisable at 1.125p, were awarded on 19 Dec 2017 for what was claimed as ready-to-go Ororo, confirmed by Henderson at his Turner-Pope presentation evening. After informing Shelf that they were not quite ready to take the Adriatic drilling rig which had become available, the Ororo venture was binned altogether. The laughable statement given in the Dec 2019 AR was, "the consequent impact on our operational team’s readiness."
The "cancelled" options were later added back in respect of ATOG to give a new total of 485m.

No wonder that Sherl0ck has disappeared. Without Angola, time is up for these loan-shuffling clowns who help themselves, regardless of performance, from the stash of loan money that comes in.

[vatnabrekk] 16/1/2025 11:54

You're still not getting it. There is no "charge" on 'Tende's shares, the shares are not "in hock".

[htrocka2] 16/1/2025 10:41

vat....Just go back to Dr's Trafigura/Petrochemical tie up. If there's some clandestine connivance between Trafigura and Petropolymer then Tende, with all it's assets in 'hock' to Petropolymer will end up going down the Tunisia road... with a possible percentage in the final deal.(ps..what are going to do with the $50m they've borrowed?...a new loan to pay off an old debt perhaps?)

Trafigura stated that...(Dr's ref)
'... the petrochemical market is expected grow over the next few years and the "time is right" to explore its potential, Trafigura said today.

[vatnabrekk] 16/1/2025 08:45

HT, I know what a "charge" on the assets means.
"Assets" of the company does not include the company's shares. The shares are owned by the shareholders such as you and I.

What I'm trying to tell you is that there is no "charge" on on the shares, and there is no restriction by Petropollymer or anyone else on trading the shares (except that they are delisted of course) and no restriction on the company issuing more shares.

Any transactions relating to Tende's shares are not affected by the charge on the company's assets.

[stbilow] 16/1/2025 07:44

Nothing to see here as usual apart from failure and zero profit

[htrocka2] 15/1/2025 23:40

vat..



A “fixed charge” or “mortgage̶1; is a direct charge over a specific asset or category of assets and ensures that the company is not free to deal or dispose of the charged asset(s) without the consent of the chargee or mortgagee (the creditor). It is possible to obtain a fixed charge over a company's book debts [Note 1].


If the company's assets are 'mortgaged'...the shares are untradeable as worthless.(maybe that's why no one has touched them since July on the JP site.).....and it still means that Tende lose the prerogative to be allowed to relist without Petropolymers permission....that's not been granted.

[dr rosso] 15/1/2025 22:33

Go back 5 years to see the origin of the Trafigura-Tende plan. Fund the supply of crude from Nigeria-Tunisia-Angola. Trade the refined product coming out of Cabinda or Lagos (Dangote).

Neat plan, except Trafigura partnered the wrong personnel to execute it efficiently.

[vatnabrekk] 15/1/2025 18:52

We've been through this before HT but you keep coming back to it.
There is no charge on the shares of Tende. Those shares are owned by the shareholders like you and I, the shares are not "owned" by Tende, and they are not owned by Petropolymer.

The charge is on Tende's assets, not on the shares.
And that doesn't mean that Petropolymer owns the assets either, they are pledged to Petropolymer in case of default on the loan repayments.

Any further issue of shares by Tende doesn't affect Petropolymer one jot.

[vatnabrekk] 15/1/2025 18:45

Absolutely right bestdeal!

[htrocka2] 15/1/2025 17:49

Relist??.....to relist they would first have to regain the shares that are 'Charged' and controlled/owned by Petropolymer....How can you relist shares you don't own?...It's not a case of 'they never mentioned it this time' it was more a case of they were not allowed to make such a statement.....which hints at the possibility that Petropolymer have a Plan B up their sleeve that may have to be invoked should a default occur. Yes...they are allowed to issue more shares. ...but IF I've read the Charge Deed correctly, they can only issue shares for cash to Peptropolymer themselves...that means Petropolymer will allow them to dig a deeper hole that they have to eventually climb out of.The bottom line being......until the Charge is 'cleared' there will be no relist.

[bestdeal1] 15/1/2025 17:46

Confetti is of no more use to the Ds than to us if the share is not trading.
They dont need to pay anyone at JPJ, on the platform it is in the hands of the listed company to provide a valuation.