Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[carc] 01/1/2025 19:51

Agree Vat, it needs to be cleared up as to why we've made no revenue from OML 65. Could it be that COPDC has indeed received revenue from existing production at OML 65 in the form of OPEX recovery and field management fees during 2023, but that COPDC made an operating loss for the year, resulting in an entitlement of nil to Tende through its 30% equity stake in COPDC? I don't believe the terms of the JV have been disclosed.

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 18:50

Thanks for that confirmation Carc. Problem is, that doesn't seem to be what's actually happening. It's clear that our JV team has put in a great deal of work into enhancement and production at Abura (although they have drilled none of the 9 new wells as far as I am aware) but apparently have received NIL revenue thrpughout 2023 for their efforts.

I'm hoping that the BoD are going to give us an explanation for this.

[bronislav] 01/1/2025 18:12

Only positive about this thread now is it's become that predictable and boring that it hopefully stops me from visiting it any more and likely adding to the boredom.

[carc] 01/1/2025 18:10

Kuti at the last AGM, ref OML 65:"Under the arrangement we recover all costs that we invest into the project, and that is all deposited into an offshore collection account which is administered by Standard Bank. That's to ensure absolutely no leakages and to ensure that we're able to repay our debt in a transparent manner. We're the very top of the waterfall (post royalties) and NNPC get their share of production at the bottom of the waterfall.So this is how the FTSA works, there's actually about seven different agreements that interact with NNPC, but I think the important bit from the company's perspective is the COPDC entitlement that we get from it. So we're entitled to charge the project a minimum of $15 per barrel which is constituted as OPEX recovery.There's obviously a hard cost that we'll have to spend to keep the project running, so there's an embedded margin in that $15 per barrel that we're able to charge on EVERY barrel that is produced from the OML 65 license. We're also entitled to 0.25% of gross revenues which is categorised as a field management fee.In addition to that, for every well that is drilled in OML 65 we're entitled to recover $16.8m. That's why it's extremely important, when you look at our Baker Hughes contract, that we have a fixed price arrangement. So that way we can always ensure that we're capturing a margin when we're drilling new wells, as part of cost recovery. And then we also get a 40% project net cash flow, post the cost recovery and tax payments. One of the things that's very important - in the context of Nigeria especially - is to ensure that you have the right to lift your own crude entitlement. What we've done and agreed with NNPC is we're gonna have our rights to be lifting 100% of the crude oil being produced, which will be lifted by Trafigura. This will ensure constant cash flow generation and make the liftings more frequent."

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 16:48

Good analysis Doc.
But i'm still nervous!

[dr rosso] 01/1/2025 14:50

A) "If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value (of 2p) by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2025 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable."


20% per annum, so this means 2.4p by 31 Dec 2023, 2.9p by 31 Dec 2024, .....
The share price has to be at 3.5p at 31 Dec 2025, or all 60m options bite the dust.



B) "If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value (of 2.5p) by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2026 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable."


20% per annum, so 3p by 31 Dec 2024, 3.6p by 31 Dec 2025, .........
The share price has to be at 4.3p by 31 Dec 2026, or all 51m options lapse.


Exercisable at 0.25p, targets met would mean a D collective gain of
Scenario A) 60m x 3.25p at 31 Dec 2025. Almost £2m.
Scenario B) 51m x 4.05p at 31 Dec 2026. Another £2m

A £4m incentive to cease operating like a bunch of clueless cretins. Dilution 110m. Dare we assume that these are genuine market prices, not some dodgy JPJ geezer inflating artificial share price figures?

Is minimum target of 4.05p by Dec 2026 acceptable, given that we are much closer to 0.05p in the present circumstances? Maybe they've started deluding themselves?

[htrocka2] 01/1/2025 13:59

Vat..he's got a job....trying to salvage something from the bods 'gravy train' that's turning into a train wreck.


'If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2026 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable.'

Doesn't sound too enthusiastic....



AR extract..
'The Group drew down $10,000,000 of this(Trafigura) facility in 2022...... The loan is secured against OML65 cashflows.

If they keep 'forward selling' oil that's still in the ground....then this will go the same way as the Tunisian assets.

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 13:03

You need to get a job, Doc!

[dr rosso] 01/1/2025 12:22

The promise :-

The outcome :-



As always

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 12:08

Yes SIB, that's possible.

[ace1976] 01/1/2025 11:03

Ht what happened to the jam packed news coming for December seems like there are quite a few here who know the board and Just make up fake dates

[14hugo] 31/12/2024 22:08

And there we have it…… nothing !

[htrocka2] 31/12/2024 19:58

'...filing offering from HMRC & Companies House doesn't allow a company with zero trading income to be anything other than dormant,


This company survives on loans....Loans cannot be construed as 'profit'.

What is the meaning of trading income?
trading income means, in relation to any trade, the income which falls or would fall to be included in respect of the trade in the total profits of the company;


hence , under Companies House Rules...This is currently a 'Dormant Company'...just like Tende Energy Angola Ltd


In short....their past is catching up with them.

[vatnabrekk] 31/12/2024 19:48

Doc, I suspect there is very little chance that the Ds will lose anything, but a very good chance that we might!

There are too many red flags floating about here for my liking.

And just one of those red flags being, why would the company publish the audited signed accounts on their web site, but not file them on Companies House where they are showing a big red "ACCOUNTS OVERDUE" warning? Is it just pure stubbornness, or is there something more to it?

[dr rosso] 31/12/2024 19:07

Company has only been signed off by the auditors as a Going Concern due to the $50m rescue loan on 24 Nov. From an unnamed lender, this facility can be utilised whilst awaiting Angola full completion. Someone is keen that this Company stays afloat.Failure to secure Angola, and no oil revenue from 65 in H1, leaves Tende $42m+ in debt. A $10m Tunisia 2024 cargo is the only income. In other words, dead duck. You'd almost wish that outcome so the contemptuous Ds lose the lot, shareholdings, options and salaries.

[vatnabrekk] 31/12/2024 18:50

Good point about the auditors HT, and if we get no sense out of the BoD with regard to our questions then perhaps the auditors ought to be our next port of call.

But I still don't understand what your getting at in your last several posts regarding loans and revenue.

[htrocka2] 31/12/2024 17:54

vat..


'It is very clear that there is no revenue from OML65 shown in the 2023 accounts.'


If Tunisia has been 'divested'(to use their terminology) and Angola is still a pipe dream, with no revenue from OML65....Tende may well have loaned cash in the bank, however,...this can no longer be classified as an O&G company ...TENDE is now a SHELL company, not an O&G company and cannot be signed off as an O&G company.... which may help to explain the sign-off delay.

(If, as Dr claims, there may be no revenue from OML65 until late H2 2025, maybe this is why they're hoping Angola will materialise before then....so as to maintain the company status))

"immediate cash flows". Except they omitted to tell us the conditions in ensuing clauses ...'

(It seems they've not told the Auditors either.....or the Auditors don't recognise them as such.)

[vatnabrekk] 31/12/2024 15:59

HT, I'm not aware that anyone has suggested that loans drawdowns should be classified as revenue in the accounts.

It is very clear that there is no revenue from OML65 shown in the 2023 accounts.

[htrocka2] 31/12/2024 15:18

'Doc, I simply cannot believe that any Board of Directors, under guidance of lawyers, would be naive enough to sign off a contract that committed the company to three years of oilfield management, operations and production but which would result in zero revenue!'



Signed off?...what's been signed off?...Nothing's been signed off...yet.



Does borrowing cash count as revenue?
Loans (whether from shareholders or otherwise) are not classified as revenue. When loan proceeds are received, the cash becomes an asset of the borrower.18 Feb 2017


The loan may be classed as 'an asset'....but not as an 'income or 'revenue'.....this definition could be the problem?....ie,...there is no 'income'.

[vatnabrekk] 31/12/2024 14:36

Doc, I simply cannot believe that any Board of Directors, under guidance of lawyers, would be naive enough to sign off a contract that committed the company to three years of oilfield management, operations and production but which would result in zero revenue!

It's inconceivable that any company could possibly survive for two or three years under these circumstances. Surely we must have got this wrong somehow!

So it will be interesting to see what explanations we get back from the BoD in answer to the emails from individual shareholders, and in answer to the list of questions from the Group of shareholders which Helix is currently composing.

If indeed we get any response from them at all.

[htrocka2] 31/12/2024 14:23

'1st drill prob not until H2, so that'll mean no revenue for 2025.'

To which you can add that Tende have 8 outstanding Charges, with an unknown number of 'employees'. 9 'Associates' in Nigeria....a further 5 at Bury Street..ALL REQUIRE PAYMENT.......AND NOT A PENNY COMING IN....It's a nightmare .



Website

hxxps://copdc-ng.com

Industry
Oil and Gas

Company size
11-50 employees
9 associated members LinkedIn members who’ve listed COPDC Petroleum Development Company as their current workplace on their profile.
Headquarters
Abuja, Federal Capital Territory

[oliversanvil] 31/12/2024 14:13

Rachael Reeves financial services!