Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[htrocka2] 04/1/2025 10:38

O/T

The Head of Creating Accountancy...(she leads...every on else follows.)




'The government spent a staggering £102billion servicing the interest on our national debt last year.'.....and they keep on borrowing more...

[htrocka2] 04/1/2025 10:10

Creative Accounting.....The whole world uses this device....Let's hope TENDE are less creative than most..

"Every company in the country is fiddling its profits. Every set of published accounts is based on books which have been gently cooked or completely roasted. The figures which are fed twice a year to the investing public have all been changed in order to protect the guilty. It is the biggest con trick since the Trojan horse. ... In fact this deception is all in perfectly good taste. It is totally legitimate. It is creative accounting."
Ian Griffiths in 1986, describing creative accounting[2]




As in the previous news item, it's not what's stated that's important...it's what 's left out that leads to speculation and consipiacy......Anyway.... we look forward with anticipation...good luck Tende. Don't let us down.

[stbilow] 04/1/2025 08:50

Creative accounting is their speciality!

[vatnabrekk] 03/1/2025 18:49

Ah, so they have submitted them to Companies House after all, albeit late!
But Tende Angola and ATOG Midco are still showing as overdue.

[htrocka2] 03/1/2025 17:39

Company Results

03 Jan 2025 Group of companies' accounts made up to 31 December 2023
This document is being processed and will be available in 10 days.

[ace1976] 02/1/2025 16:05

Will leave you Doc and Vanta to it,the BB is in a dire state

[dr rosso] 02/1/2025 12:38

ATOG Accounts for y/e 2023 are now overdue, but we know from Tende's AR that O&G revenue for the year is going to show as $9m.

Looking back, we see ATOG y/e 2020 revenue $9m, 2021 $9.4m, 2022 $17.4m, 2023 $9m (wiped out instantly by operating costs of $26m). As soon as it falls into Tende hands, completion of sale in June 2023, the output plummets, almost halving the revenue, this despite Tende informing us of "excellent progress" including 3 workovers on BBT field.


Worth a quick glance at the figures being quoted here. They are wildly optimistic and hopelessly unachievable. Needless to say, under Tende's watch, reality hits hard. The above presentation has now been withdrawn from the website.

But the most disturbing aspect is that Tunisia is not alone in the hype not materialising. It starts in 2010 with a very detailed positive review of Ke Field, Ororo in 2015 (backed up by Hendo's oral Turner-Pope "ready-to-go" stunt in Dec 2017). It doesn't stop there. OML 109 is next up, followed by OML 65.

It's the same every time. The projected figures and statements are pure hyperbole, each set of fabulous numbers in due course reducing to zero or thereabouts. The Ds are taking, in the circumstances, exhorbitant remuneration on the basis of unmet wishful-thinking targets, instead of on actual performance. Paying themselves for repeated failure. Sure enough, Tunisia is zero (after costs), OML 65 is zero. A never-changing $0 which moves on to the next great thing.

The rinse and repeat nature of the act exposes the goings-on by the same group of ppl who have been running the show over the years. Exposed as a scam. The latest AR humiliation means that they have to go, simple as that.

[vatnabrekk] 02/1/2025 10:11

I'm sure they know a lot more than we do!

[rpat2] 01/1/2025 21:14

And we are assuming that Traf are that daft!

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 21:07

You are right Carc, we haven't been given details of the JV, and as it is the JV that has signed the services contract with NNPC, presumably the revenue would be paid to the JV and not direct to Tende.

But I'm not even sure if that is correct. There are just too many unknowns here.

[carc] 01/1/2025 19:51

Agree Vat, it needs to be cleared up as to why we've made no revenue from OML 65. Could it be that COPDC has indeed received revenue from existing production at OML 65 in the form of OPEX recovery and field management fees during 2023, but that COPDC made an operating loss for the year, resulting in an entitlement of nil to Tende through its 30% equity stake in COPDC? I don't believe the terms of the JV have been disclosed.

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 18:50

Thanks for that confirmation Carc. Problem is, that doesn't seem to be what's actually happening. It's clear that our JV team has put in a great deal of work into enhancement and production at Abura (although they have drilled none of the 9 new wells as far as I am aware) but apparently have received NIL revenue thrpughout 2023 for their efforts.

I'm hoping that the BoD are going to give us an explanation for this.

[bronislav] 01/1/2025 18:12

Only positive about this thread now is it's become that predictable and boring that it hopefully stops me from visiting it any more and likely adding to the boredom.

[carc] 01/1/2025 18:10

Kuti at the last AGM, ref OML 65:"Under the arrangement we recover all costs that we invest into the project, and that is all deposited into an offshore collection account which is administered by Standard Bank. That's to ensure absolutely no leakages and to ensure that we're able to repay our debt in a transparent manner. We're the very top of the waterfall (post royalties) and NNPC get their share of production at the bottom of the waterfall.So this is how the FTSA works, there's actually about seven different agreements that interact with NNPC, but I think the important bit from the company's perspective is the COPDC entitlement that we get from it. So we're entitled to charge the project a minimum of $15 per barrel which is constituted as OPEX recovery.There's obviously a hard cost that we'll have to spend to keep the project running, so there's an embedded margin in that $15 per barrel that we're able to charge on EVERY barrel that is produced from the OML 65 license. We're also entitled to 0.25% of gross revenues which is categorised as a field management fee.In addition to that, for every well that is drilled in OML 65 we're entitled to recover $16.8m. That's why it's extremely important, when you look at our Baker Hughes contract, that we have a fixed price arrangement. So that way we can always ensure that we're capturing a margin when we're drilling new wells, as part of cost recovery. And then we also get a 40% project net cash flow, post the cost recovery and tax payments. One of the things that's very important - in the context of Nigeria especially - is to ensure that you have the right to lift your own crude entitlement. What we've done and agreed with NNPC is we're gonna have our rights to be lifting 100% of the crude oil being produced, which will be lifted by Trafigura. This will ensure constant cash flow generation and make the liftings more frequent."

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 16:48

Good analysis Doc.
But i'm still nervous!

[dr rosso] 01/1/2025 14:50

A) "If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value (of 2p) by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2025 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable."


20% per annum, so this means 2.4p by 31 Dec 2023, 2.9p by 31 Dec 2024, .....
The share price has to be at 3.5p at 31 Dec 2025, or all 60m options bite the dust.



B) "If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value (of 2.5p) by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2026 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable."


20% per annum, so 3p by 31 Dec 2024, 3.6p by 31 Dec 2025, .........
The share price has to be at 4.3p by 31 Dec 2026, or all 51m options lapse.


Exercisable at 0.25p, targets met would mean a D collective gain of
Scenario A) 60m x 3.25p at 31 Dec 2025. Almost £2m.
Scenario B) 51m x 4.05p at 31 Dec 2026. Another £2m

A £4m incentive to cease operating like a bunch of clueless cretins. Dilution 110m. Dare we assume that these are genuine market prices, not some dodgy JPJ geezer inflating artificial share price figures?

Is minimum target of 4.05p by Dec 2026 acceptable, given that we are much closer to 0.05p in the present circumstances? Maybe they've started deluding themselves?

[htrocka2] 01/1/2025 13:59

Vat..he's got a job....trying to salvage something from the bods 'gravy train' that's turning into a train wreck.


'If the Price for the Shares does not grow from the Base Value by at least 20% per annum over the three-year period ending 31 December 2026 then the Option shall lapse and cease to be exercisable.'

Doesn't sound too enthusiastic....



AR extract..
'The Group drew down $10,000,000 of this(Trafigura) facility in 2022...... The loan is secured against OML65 cashflows.

If they keep 'forward selling' oil that's still in the ground....then this will go the same way as the Tunisian assets.

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 13:03

You need to get a job, Doc!

[dr rosso] 01/1/2025 12:22

The promise :-

The outcome :-



As always

[vatnabrekk] 01/1/2025 12:08

Yes SIB, that's possible.