Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[big yankee dealer] 15/4/2018 13:21

Professor Pettigrew (SXX) 29 Nov '16 - 20:27
I hold 5m.

[mr.oz] 15/4/2018 11:30

JW - 2 a day
Doable

[not my real name] 15/4/2018 00:57

Professor Pettigrew,

If Sirius sign more offtakes and put the stage 2 finance in place they will be 50p+ anyway. A takeover would have to be way in excess of that!

NMRN

[not my real name] 15/4/2018 00:54

clotted cream,

I think that's the whole point. It's NOT potash. It's better.

NMRN

[clotted cream] 15/4/2018 00:33

more offtakes, has the sun got to you.
At 14% potash, who is buying into this
insoluble "sulphate"

[professor pettigrew] 14/4/2018 23:40

Once stage 2 finance is in place, and more off-take agreements have been signed, then Sirius Minerals will be a massive takeover target.

Glencore? at 50p+ ?

[johnveals] 14/4/2018 22:54

NickGrant2 - a good point re the time limited nature of the off take agreements. Like you my speculations are amateur but if the 36p figure comes from a Sirius glossy then it tells us we aren’t too far off the mark.

Now if only we can confirm that ST2 finance involves minimum share dilution then we can maybe see light at the end of the tunnel.

[nickgrant2] 14/4/2018 22:05

Regarding the discussions about volumes and share price (NMRN and Johnveals), do your calculations include the following?

- The off-take agreements are not perpetual so the agreed (low) price will only be for a relatively short period of time
- The off-take agreements only cover a portion of the full capacity with balance being for sale at a (presumably) higher price


Looking at the Sirius glossies they talk about operational free cash of 36p/share, with debt to pay off and dividends to pay. When they finally get to that promised land, with most of the current risk gone would the share price be governed by the dividend percentage as it would be attractive to income investors (private and institutional)?

Based on todays (admittedly miserable and unsustainable) low rates a return of say 5% would be attractive, assuming a div of 18p (other half going to debt repayments) that would give a share price of £3.60.

All amateur speculation and the numbers may change but the principles feel right.

[johnwise] 14/4/2018 20:00

Glencore’s Adriana Rose at Teesport

Weighing in at 54,000 ton

[johnveals] 14/4/2018 12:25

The best laid plans never survive first contact with the enemy, but SXX is still a strong hold with every prospect of buying more in the future.

[meadow2] 14/4/2018 12:16

The time given for CB holders to make a decision (11th to 16th April) seems remarkably brief! Could this mean that the board have had prior consultations with others and are covering their backs by offering terms to all? Conspiracy Theory!

[desijohn] 14/4/2018 11:51

I enjoy reading this thread, even if some of it goes over my head. It only seems five minutes ago we were talking about planning permission, so from my point of view it all seems to be going in the right direction. Good luck all and have a nice weekend.

[diesel] 14/4/2018 11:42

I would imagine that the 20mt number is a design criteria and that in any one year is very unlikely to be shipped. Maintainence and machinery downtime, together with unforeseen geolocation conditions, and even weather conditions ( ships hold out at sea waiting for the right condition to come up the Tees), make a 20mt steady state unlikely.

[jw30] 14/4/2018 10:45

I wouldn’t count the chickens before they hatch.
So, the recent pump to 32 was to prepare the ground for CB conversion. They must have hit a real snag with Stage 2 finance. Probably need to free up the funds from CB and recycle them for stage 2 debt instruments. There will be downside pressure on the share price

[cottlad] 14/4/2018 10:38

I'd expect all deep sea shipments would be bulk. Maybe local UK transport and near coastal smaller shipments could use 1t bags. Can't see anyone wanting 20kg bags unless they start selling to garden centres 😁

[coolhandfluke] 14/4/2018 10:22

Weren't they talking about a packing area? So may be in 20 kilo bags or 1000 kg bulk bags? Then they just go into 20 or 40 ft containers. There are plenty of containers with our imbalance between imports and exports.

[11_percent] 14/4/2018 10:04

Good grief, the scammers have arrived in force........shows that there were/are not many real posters on here.

Talk about desperate.......major scamm mmust be soon.

You have my full attention.......

Tin hat on.....ducks behind wallll..

[mr.oz] 14/4/2018 09:54

Teesport facility handles 40mt / 5000 vessels per annum. It's next door.

[muckshifter] 14/4/2018 09:30

I'm sure that the docks and loading facilities will be well considered and adequate, the size of ship used will often be governed by the size of order and the dock facilities at the other end of the journey, so they have to cater for various loading rates, ship sizes etc.

[altom] 14/4/2018 09:03

Thanks to Pugwash north. I also am planning to visit SXX this summer and your tips on pubs most helpful.
I think, I hope, that too much government publicity has been invested in SXX for it to be allowed to fail. Looking at some of the tunnels (and bridges)that have already been built, it is hard to think that this project is impossible. Cost? That is another question. The record of this board is good so far. Let's hope they keep it up.

[not my real name] 14/4/2018 08:49

clotted cream,

I just read the RNS for the Torps and there is no mention on whether they are CIF or FOB or anything else.

Do you have verifiable info or was that just an assumption?

NMRN