Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[mr.oz] 13/4/2018 11:46

Would being part of a new deal for CB's within STG2 finance convince you to part, PPVN ??

[ppvn] 13/4/2018 11:44

Hi Lenses, thanks for your post. No need for the question mark after me being confused, I genuinely am. I must also accept my expectation of share price movement has been spectacularly wrong, but there you go! I base my expectation on trade economics, and my confusion stems from why bondholders would take up this offer with the share price in the 20's - to my mind, and if I owned a bond, it would be an offer I would reject since the sums do not stack up. I fully appreciate the experience of our board and I support them fully; as you say, long term (and indeed short and medium term in my personal opinion) this will be a good thing for us. But with all of that, it doesn't change the fact that as a bondholder, why would they elect to take up the offer if economically it didn't make sense for them to do so? I've seen notes saying that bondholders are 80-90% hedged, but I can only account for 50-55% (I accept they possibly have more information that I do). So this is what leads my confusion, basically why would they do it and what have I missed. I appreciate people's comments on this board and others, but I haven't seen anything that could explain what I'm failing to grasp. You may be right with the fear explanation; but then our shareprice will need to get moving upwards, and fast. I'm still long and continue to be, but then I also need to accept the fact that I was entirely wrong in my expectation of how this would play out, so don't expect anyone to care!

[eurofox] 13/4/2018 10:56

good post lenses

[11_percent] 13/4/2018 10:49

Amm glad I bought a few this morning.

[lenses] 13/4/2018 10:47

Morning PPVN

I greatly appreciate your analysis and insight regarding the complexities Sirius have structured wrt the financing and capital of this co and how asset holders are behaving, but I'm a bit surprised at you being confused(?) by this share price pullback arising from this early 'clean up' offer.

As ever all sorts of hypotheses are flying about as to the reasons for a fall, when on face value all who should understand this should also grasp that it is a positive to get the CBs cleared sooner rather than later and is in the long term interests of shareholders.

Re the fall I think the answer is simple - fear. Fear comes from uncertainty and not knowing enough about what is ahead. With well traded shares and readily available 'hot' money fear will also feed on fear - herd thinking.

I suspect a large tranch of the money that has come in during the last two odd months is 'hot' and not 'sticky', many buy in from doing little more than spending ten seconds looking at the chart. I reckon there was only a small proportion of new long term money was taking in what should pan out with a success with St2. Then only build risk will then be remaining between here and cashflow with this project.

Not that that risk will have become trivial when there will be $3bn odd of debt in the hands of seniors and a tricky shaftsink to do. I don't need to spell that out!

I don't offer much hope on your 'buyer in the wings' thinking because this offer I believe has been done by the co because of a need, they are giving greater priority to getting their capital structure into to a more appropriate place for the comfort of St2 takers (which with that achieved, also boosting the valuation) regardless of any short term impact this 'shock' does to the share price I would also be astonished if it came out that there had not been conversation with CB holders prior to this offer.

We'll just have to see how its gone by Tue. Keep in mind that Staley and Fraser are blue blooded finance dealers not starry eyed hopeful miners.

ATB

L.

[eurofox] 13/4/2018 10:44

bounced off support at 27p again

[thanksamillion] 13/4/2018 09:34

NMRN

Apologies, I clearly rushed into this and can accept your figures as reasonable now.

[not my real name] 13/4/2018 09:16

Thanksamillion.

Your figures are for Yorkshire. Mine clearly state NORTH Yorkshire, hence, the difference. I will stick with 10%.

Edit: My figure was in dollars, yours are pounds. Population figures have nothing whatsoever to do with GDP. Apart from that.........we are in broad agreement!

:)

NMRN

[ppvn] 13/4/2018 09:11

Apols, a rudimentary error in haste. Was thinking of the 7% reduction in trade deficit taken from sirius website, "home/about us" page. That was the figure that really struck me anyway.

[johnveals] 13/4/2018 08:59

Whichever way you look at it it is very significant both locally and nationally. I hesitate to use the phrase “too big to fail” but there is an awful lot invested both financially and politically in this project and I am very comfortable with my investment.

[thanksamillion] 13/4/2018 08:45

NMRN

So are you saying Yorkshires GDP is £30bn [3bx10], which is 1.15% of uk GDP at 2600bn.

Note: Yorkshires population is 5.3mn or approx 8.5% of UK. Other sources put Yorkshires economic output at 7% of the uk.

EDIT

Published Figures show UK GVA at £1.65tn, GVA is used as GDP not available at regional level, the majority of the differerence with GDP is found in non regional figures such as N.Sea oil. Yorkshire has GVA of £110BN or 6.6 % of UK.

2015 figures.

That makes the mine 3/110% or 2.72% of Yorkshires GDP, still significant but not 10%.

[11_percent] 13/4/2018 08:44

Just bought a few......will buy more as it goes down.

Yes, this mine will certainly add to the UK GDP. People do not realise just massive this project is, particularly for the local area.

[not my real name] 13/4/2018 07:21

adg.

UK gdp in 2016 was $2.6 trillion. 7% = $182bn. Convert at 1.40 gives us £130bn. 20m tonnes at $150 = $3bn.

That equals roughly 0.115% of gdp.

Hope this helps.

Edit: When the mine is fully operational $3bn will be roughly equal to 10% of North Yorkshires GDP.

NMRN

[sux_2bu] 13/4/2018 07:20

22p please Bob.

[adg] 13/4/2018 07:05

7% to GDP ?
You sure of that? Would be awesome if correct?

[eurofox] 12/4/2018 23:05

carry on selling, you know it makes (non)sence! The panic selling is a fantastic opportunity to go on adding at bargain prices. This is one company where building a ladder of falling prices offers no worries as long as you don't leverage it on margin.

[mail2] 12/4/2018 20:47

sold out when we hit 30p. have been wishing i hadn't till today. think myself best stand away for a few weeks see how it plays out. extra shares always cause panic May and JUNE LAST YR SHOWS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ISSUE OF SHARES.

[thanksamillion] 12/4/2018 19:56

I dont know either, what I can see is that the Feb-now chart is replicating the June16 to early July16 pattern. Interesting but perhaps just a coincidence.

[coolhandfluke] 12/4/2018 19:06

I don't pretend to understand any of this bond business so perhaps they are acting like the companies who try to buy you out of your final salary pension hoping some chumps will fall for it? As far as the share price goes the only price most think about is the price it will be from 2021. Unless this bond offer signals anything we should be concerned about I will not worry about the share price movement.

[ppvn] 12/4/2018 16:49

Hi duracellaa, because Sirius needed a $400mm investment in December 2016. The moment our CBs were issued and our share price rose above the strike (I.e. became convertible) every single one of them was destined to be converted to equity. If there is a buyer (and it's not today), why wouldn't the BOD accelerate the process of CB conversion by incentivising bondholders to convert early? They are going to anyway, and it just puts the lengthly gyrations of our rangebound share price behind us. I note our aftermarket trades are relatively small today so it's not like CB holders are rushing to the exit at this price for on market sales. Its genuinely a puzzle I can't yet figure out the pieces to. For better or for worse, there will be a reason for this. I'm not personally convinced by the reasons given in the RNS though.

[duracellaa] 12/4/2018 16:37

PPVN, why would SXX BOD help someone buy shares and dilute our shares in the process. D

[ppvn] 12/4/2018 15:42

Why are most of us here? Because we believe that Sirius will provide us a handsome return over the next decade and we are prepared to punt on our BOD that they will achieve a favourable stg2 deal, and get the mine built successfully! If (and it's a big "if" at this stage) it's a large buyer, maybe they are the same. I honestly don't know. As to who I have no idea. It isn't me though.

[pazzuzu] 12/4/2018 15:24

From what you said the most plausible one to me is there is a buyer for them, but who and why now if that is the case?