Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[tmmalik] 11/4/2018 18:07

Let see how many holders convert and boost to sp

[mr.oz] 11/4/2018 17:58

Very late RNS
Invitation to convert CBs

over to you PPVN, please
(all eyes on you, but you'll do just fine ;-) )

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 08:50

Hi NMRN, gone back over the records and yes, Gina has an option for 20k tpa, would imagine some head of cattle on her ranch are to be corn fed... No TorP though still for Oz.

Now we are entering the realms of speculation on hypothesis, I find myself wondering who the main beneficiary of further TorP agreements would be at this time. Our CB holders are still selling shares, and if announcements were to be made before they could fully dispose of their positions it'd really only take the share price up for it to then decline again (I.e. allowing them to exit quicker and more profitably at the expense of the company shareprice longer term). If they are close to exiting their positions, well, announcing TorPs could have a more lasting effect for Sirius since buyers would already have been found for the remaining shares being sold. Just musing aloud. Listen to Thomas Staley's analyst call. He sounds very confident to me...

[not my real name] 11/4/2018 01:04

PPVN.

Seem to remember Gina signed up for, from memory, around 50,000 tonnes of Poly 4 for her own farming interests.

NMRN

[11_percent] 10/4/2018 21:39

Mmmmmm......may be in the pipeline.....just not signed/finalised etc...

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 21:34

Gina Reinhart at the time of stg1 also said many Australian farmers would benefit from poly4, but I don't remember seeing a circle over antipodean shores either. Commercial contracts are something we are unlikely to ever see; I'm personally confident in time the required offtake agreements will be met. Only my view and as I've mentioned it was a calculated view I took, rightly or wrongly, when I invested.

[11_percent] 10/4/2018 21:22

I would have thought that India would have taken some Poly.......given the roggering they used to get Potash Cartel......never mind.

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 21:13

I'm not really sure what to discuss with regards to it, other than 2.65mm tpa need signing before one of the criteria for stg2 finance is in place. However, that 7mm tpa was from a rather aged presentation, and certainly Thomas Staley in his more recent analyst calls indicated that this 7mm figure may have some flexibility, or at least that was my personal interpretation. We know that MOP is suited only for chloride insensitive ("low value") crops, SOP costs north of $500 / tonne to produce, so Poly4 (my interpretation of which is that is most similar to SOP target crops) being signed for sale by Sirius at around $145 / tonne represents somewhat of a bargain. So I'd like to believe, and have not seen anything to contradict, that this represents a very attractive proposition to sign up early to. I don't personally see an issue with takeoffs being signed, but that's my relatively uneducated view as I'm no expert on fertilizer. The poly4 website has some useful info on there; China and India seem to have seen fairly exhaustive crop trials, Africa less so. However there is a specific presentation relating to the potential effect of Poly4 on African soil, and it certainly seems to be positive given the low chloride content and neutral pH impact. But then I suppose the poly4 website would be positive. I'm choosing to believe the hype since I know nothing to the otherwise. We will get there, in more ways than one. Revisited the end of year forecasts yet, 11%? I'm confident.

[11_percent] 10/4/2018 18:43

I do not expect much discussion on this, as it is off limits.

[11_percent] 10/4/2018 18:27

It's about the TorP off takes at the moment.....this post from iii sums it up.



Slide is numbered 5.

-------

Sat 11:59
TORPS / Sales agreements
tiggerman1 7
In that most excellent March 2018 Presentation - Deutsche Bank document - on Page 6, there is a global map illustrating potential market size around the globe , and 8 squared off areas of SXX potential markets.
Four of the areas - S America 0.5 mtpa / N. America 1.55mtpa / China 1.5 mtpa / S.E Asia 0.75mtpa delineates existing Torps agreements, totalling 4.3 mtpa.

4 major areas remain blank. Principally amongst these areas is the UK and Europe ( assuming that these may be considered differently ). The UK must surely be the easiest and lowest distribution cost potential market to develop , on a patriotic , localised basis alone, ( not even a deal with Yorkshire ), yet there has not been one whisper of any UK ? EU ? volumes. It is the second largest potential global market
( 70mtpa ) after China ( 110mtpa ).

It would be amazing if CF has not more or less nailed something sizeable , but still to be announced, for this area alone and not to mention Africa / India / Brazil.

I trust that we will be hearing soon on this score.

Tig

[coolhandfluke] 10/4/2018 18:16

So we can look forward to some updates through rose tinted glasses in the near future. Bit like AHO at Lloyds few years back when he needed mid 70's to trigger options. He more than likely ignored PPI provision for a couple of quarters suggesting they were over the worst. They have now provided over 20 billion.

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 18:16

Agree 100%, nevermind just 11%! With stg2 though I personally think quite a bit higher if little or no dilution. Definitely exciting year.

[11_percent] 10/4/2018 18:10

Has just over 10.2mm options at an exercise price of 43.7p that expire on 26/9/18. No prizes for guessing where our share price should be by then! Patience, patience.

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43p would be reasonable if we get Stg2 away as loans.

The off-takes hitting the 7m target, might even do it.

[not my real name] 10/4/2018 16:51

PPVN,

True enough. What an awful position to be in! :)

NMRN

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 16:46

NMRN, ha yes of course... but he'd never sell those surely! Sunk cash! Options on the other hand...

[not my real name] 10/4/2018 16:30

PPVN,

For every penny above 43.7 he is up an EXTRA £100k. Don't forget his 100m+ current holding. At £1.2m a penny I think it's fair to say we have his undivided attention!

:)

NMRN

[richard26] 10/4/2018 15:31

PUT HIM ON FILTER...then it won't bother ya

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 15:15

11%, aha the return of the "scammmers"! Personally I'd describe it as having had the board determine realistic goals for our CEO to achieve in a realistic timeframe and being incentivised appropriately by company shareholders, but each to their own! As we all discussed a few weeks ago, coincidence in shares is not to be believed in, but incentives for performance...? Plenty in the pipeline, so to speak.

[ppvn] 10/4/2018 13:50

Yep, think you're on the money there chrisatbirdies. Nice to know that for each penny we are above 43.7p our CEO is up £100k though. Some incentive to get us motoring at least. As you know I'm very bullish SXX anyway, but we have a good few things to look forward to before then. Billion pound companies take a while to increase so TorPs etc will hopefully be forthcoming in the not too distant. Fingers crossed anyway!

[chrisatbirdies] 10/4/2018 13:17

I think along with others that the stage 2 announcement will be around then ppvn.i don't think they will announce earlier as they will want to be be accurate with interest charges on the loan.