Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[chrisatbirdies] 12/4/2018 12:19

Hi 11%. Remember telling me that bond holders converting won't reduce the s.p.
Well don't look now but !!!!!!

[not my real name] 12/4/2018 12:17

phowdo,

Where is that quote taken from?

NMRN

[phowdo] 12/4/2018 12:08

"To put this into perspective, we believe a reasonable assumption is that CB holders are, on average, 80-90% hedged. Assuming participating investors aren’t “natural SXX holders” it would imply net length of c1-2% of issued capital that may need to be liquidated per $100m of participation, or 1.5-3.0x average daily turn-over."

Getting close to that 3x av. daily volume now...

[pazzuzu] 12/4/2018 11:51

23 for me, prob go below it tho

[sux_2bu] 12/4/2018 11:50

22p for me.

[y1phr1] 12/4/2018 11:46

Keep topping up will be back up to 30p in no time.

[eurofox] 12/4/2018 11:44

bouncing off support at 27?

[bus_ter] 12/4/2018 11:42

Oh dear. This is going from bad to worse. It's very hard to resist the urge to sell after watching my slowly gained profits over the last few months disappear in a morning :-(

[eurofox] 12/4/2018 11:39

NMRN - good recap of how things stand. time to use the weakness to replace shares sold in previous top-slicing.

The price action must be stopping out a few spread bets on margin.

[pazzuzu] 12/4/2018 11:39

Tin Hats People, gonna gets worse before it gets better

[eurofox] 12/4/2018 11:28

also added again

[ppvn] 12/4/2018 11:28

Peteship, hmm yes. Not my finest prediction! I'm still at a loss as to being able to explain why any CB holder would convert at the offering terms though, particularly in light of today's drop. We know approximately 1k of the 2k bonds are accounted for (I.e. already converted or held short), so that leaves about 650mm shares to still be sold. Why, as a bondholder, would you agree to convert into equity at this lower level and forfeit your coupon income and future potential sale value at a higher level? If I owned a bond, personally the last thing I'd do is be accepting a few thousand extra shares to lose 8.5% per annum, but then what do I know! I'm still sat long these shares! If it drops any further I shall probably have to pry open my wallet again. I can't explain the drop, but clearly there is a reason for it.

[y1phr1] 12/4/2018 11:24

Topped up again.

[hazl] 12/4/2018 11:19

Perhaps speculation at this point will get us nowhere.
There are people who understand the technical aspect of the share-construction, bonds and hedging far more than I do.

The only thing I am going on, is the rising share-price that has been evident in the last little while,the strength of the product, the jumping through hoops of the management to placate environmental concerns and the international appeal of the product.
I therefore am not going to get bogged down by any announcement,concerning technical issues at this time and going treat it as I've always done,a risky but potentially rewarding play that has in the time I've known it, become less risky as stages have been reached and big-money has been involved.
Time will tell.

[peteship] 12/4/2018 11:19

25% up - you really were p-----ed last night PPVN lol.

[pazzuzu] 12/4/2018 11:19

23p here we come then, who would buy these shares just to line the bond holders pockets

[phowdo] 12/4/2018 11:18

Might need to drop to 22-23p area again where the last clear out of bond hedging happened

[jw30] 12/4/2018 10:27

I suspect there is a problem with stage 2 finance. Perhaps the lenders want the CB to be fully redeemed or they can’t meet the target amount needed by the company.
The company ‘s main aim is to get stage 2 otherwise all will be futile.

[diesel] 12/4/2018 10:08

JW...those numbers are very ambiguous should never be used. If the price is down there is more selling pressure than buying...

[ppvn] 12/4/2018 10:01

Hi rrr, again, why would a bondholders agree to convert then? PIs aren't about to buy $308mm shares today (I'd assume), so why would a CB holder forfeit their 8.5% coupons up to 2023 by converting and selling at 29p rather than up to sirius' call price of $0.538 over time. Something is going on, but we just don't know what it is yet. If you can explain why CB holders would sell at 29p, or 24p, or whatever price other than the maximum they can get whilst also receiving 8.5% I'd be interested to hear. Not being argumentative, I'm just questioning the economics of it.

[11_percent] 12/4/2018 10:00

Post from LSE by PAAA, a well respected long term poster......says it all.
-----

PerArduaAdAstra
Posts: 1,392
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 28.70
RE: Barclays online dealingToday 09:27Good morning, Fred. Yes, you are quite correct. There were always going to come to market, but generally speaking, at the time of the holders choosing so they could be fed in at a good price. Now they have roughly 3 business days to effect transactions that COULD amount to hundreds of millions of shares all in a short timescale. I cannot say what is going to happen as this isn't an everyday happening. However, one thing I do know, is the convertibles were offered as a part of ST1 because the people with the money had little interest in being shareholders. Their intention always has been to feed those shares into the market whereby the average PI who has taken the company this far, might continue to do so. All the while the money men lick the cream from the top.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

[11_percent] 12/4/2018 09:55

rR's,

Correct.

However, this does not help us......we are being held at 29/30 while they load up..........but where will they put the share price next........looks, on probability, up.........don't know.

[rrrrrrrrr2] 12/4/2018 09:53

John wise. Hardly a vote of confidence. Does it not worry you that with the volume of buys to sell and the share price is 4% down. Like I said last night. The pi will pay for this and they are. They are buying the bond holders shares of 23p for 29p.