Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[not my real name] 11/4/2018 21:38

I stick with my mystery Chinese buyer theory. NMRN

[eurofox] 11/4/2018 21:30

my take is that one or more of the institutions that know they are going to be lenders in stage 2 are seeking to buy large buckets of shares now so that when the lending is put in place, they will also benefit from the market lift in share price - theses are long term players and i suspect PPVN is right about the possibility of an immediate premium.

[mr.oz] 11/4/2018 21:28

End the month lower than we are now, if no other news... is my view. FWIW

[rrrrrrrrr2] 11/4/2018 21:25

I think they are accelerating it as it will be a condition of st2 funding and the financiers want assurances its gone.

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 21:20

Rrr; why would they accelerate the process then. It's not 30% of their market cap, it's more like 10%. All shall become clear in time of course, but I've set out my stall. Anyone else have predictions? Just interested.

[lendmeafiver] 11/4/2018 21:15

Are they not just ending the CB’s early because it’s likely there will be another load of then in stg2?

[rrrrrrrrr2] 11/4/2018 21:03

Ppvn. As always. It will be the pi who picks up the extra shares.

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 20:59

I can't see a reason why Sirius would seek to accelerate the placing of their shares into the market unless their was a buyer of size positioned to take them off the CB holders hands. It's only my guesstimation and all shall become clear soon enough, but needless to say... exciting times!

[lendmeafiver] 11/4/2018 20:47

25% sounds great but why would this not mean short term selling of the bonus stock resulting in short term weakness?

Plus does this move in anyway suggest stg2 will not be 100% bank debt?

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 20:35

At the risk of being laughed out of court +25% tomorrow.

[eurofox] 11/4/2018 20:15

any views on the immediate share price impact

[aspex] 11/4/2018 20:10

Happy fella here. IMVHO those bond holders have a very, very interesting decision to mull over, particularly should the 85% trigger come into play as a compulsion to close.

[peteship] 11/4/2018 20:00

"Their children" not "there children".One shouldn't criticise spelling and grammar unless one is perfect.Ironic indeed...

[mr.oz] 11/4/2018 19:50

Whilst PMO did this Jan 18, and their share price drifted for 2-3months, I'm not saying that will be the case here, but wouldn't be surprised
I'm neutral about it atm

[professor pettigrew] 11/4/2018 19:28

A very bullish after hours RNS.

Debt will shrivel now, very quickly.

Onwards and upwards.

40p hoves into view.

[hazl] 11/4/2018 19:24

There are plenty of posters here who prefer the thread how it has become with PPVN's influence who ever they are.

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 19:21

Oh, final thoughts for today Mr. Oz, if sirius are prepared to pay a premium to CB holders, that's north of $0.5383. So do the sums, and if anyone is looking to sell shares, do the maths.

Edit: on rereading the terms of the offer it's up to 10% premium over $0.429 as defined in the RNS so take any values from that

[andymoore07] 11/4/2018 19:16

????Oh the irony

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 18:30

It's genuinely difficult to know what the rationale is until we see the take up. It could be that some deep pocketed buyer has come out and wants a shedload of shares in a block, I'm trying to think of why sirius would settle in shares as opposed to cash otherwise. The CBs, as I've mentioned ad nauseum are in essence an elongated bookbuild so I'm struggling to think why else settlement in shares would be offered. Interesting times, and think should be positive for us! We shall see! Will add more coherent thoughts when they come to me.

Edit: In my compromised state i think we have ourselves a buyer. I cannot see why else Sirius would offer settlement in shares at a premium. The terms of the take up are short, so I assume conversations have already been had, the only meaningful sellers at this point are our CB holders. Save the grief of buying on market over a few months, just buy in a block at an arranged price. At the risk of egg on my face I think it's going to be a good day tomorrow.

"booooooooooooom"

[mr.oz] 11/4/2018 18:22

The 85% rule stands

Thank you for your thoughts PPVN
I'll be maybe expecting a few slurred words later :-)

[ppvn] 11/4/2018 18:21

Hi Mr. Oz, apols but currently engaged in a den of ill repute so will need to take a closer look in a little while, but in a nutshell it's a good thing. Means Sirius view the current terms as overly generous and are prepared to buy themselves out. Brief observations: if $308mm still outstanding it means 460 bonds currently converted, current shorts around 300mm shares equals a further 461 bonds, there will be so far undisclosed shorts (I'd guess), so around half the bonds already accounted for. If sirius are stumping up a bonus to encourage cashing in the bonds I'd personally expect a relatively high acceptance, assuming that happens we'd need to examine whether the 85% clean up call is still applicable (I'd personally assume so). In essence a good thing though and clears the path to a potentially much higher share price Well spotted thanks for the heads up!

[mr.oz] 11/4/2018 18:17

Learn to paraphrase, Johnstupid and then give your opinion why this is not, at least short term, a potential drag on the SP

( and I personally don't think 'in the money' is a very technical term :-))

TIA