Shire Share Discussion Threads

[rfv] 11/11/2005 15:41

I don't like this too much and am certainly not smug. It's like playing roulette with you on red and the mate that you've gone with on black. There will only be one winner but you kind of feel bad about it. Anyway the tide is changing for those who have been long on this stock for a while it can't be bad forever. I'm afraid you shorters have had your chance on this one over the last three years it is a gamble now if you are still pursuing this course.

[topgunsh] 11/11/2005 15:28

Fair bit of movement today. Peaked at 724p anyone know why?

[powerbooks] 11/11/2005 12:05

well it's certainly not going my way at the moment!

[rfv] 11/11/2005 08:21

Come on Powerbooks if Shire falls it will be driven by general market sentiment and not by what Shire is doing. If you're short I suppose you could choose Shire as well as any other but I think you are on a fools errand here. We'll see in a few weeks. Good luck although I'm on the other side.

[powerbooks] 10/11/2005 21:13

well i'm still short and happy to stay that way!

[jaafar1] 07/11/2005 10:47

I am a hospital consultant paediatician...good part of my work is in the community and I do run clinics for children with ADHD

I have not used this adderall...nor any of my collegues either paediatricians or child psychiatrists

We do use methyl phenidate, in the form of Ritalin or Concerta XL

The new non stimulant medication for ADHD is Atamoxitine, or the generic name sterrata......getting more popular with less side effects

any way to use new drugs of shire pharma...not to do with ADHD will take long time to approve any way....short to medium term? well.....me a seller

[jaafar1] 07/11/2005 10:41

Broker recomendation ....sell
Other broker.............buy ! ! !

Went short this am 9000 shares at 719p

[rfv] 05/11/2005 09:30

The share price of a growth stock generally reflects perception and not actual. This is a sad reflection of the greed in stock market traders and has caught me out time again in the past. Rolf Stahl's comments back I think in early '02 when he effectively admitted that he had no plan for the generic attack on Adderall in 2006 really did it for Shire and the share price crashed in spite of stupendous results. The v. expensive aquisition of that Canadian company out of desperation did not help. With Emmins quietly restructuring and now having purchased TKT the perception of future earnings for Shire is very positive. Whatever negative happens with Adderall in the near future has already been priced in, (Analysts expected the worst years ago). If the court decisions just happen to go Shire's way the share price will rocket if they don't, expect a dip but not a collapse. However, more to think about is that the pipeline drugs don't make it' but of the eight some surely will. With Shire's proven track record of sales and earnings the greed of the market will drive this stock up. What do I know, so on the strength of this everyone go short and make lots of money!!!

[nod] 03/11/2005 18:57

Well, I for one have been caught out by the bounce. I sold at 700p and expected it to fall to around 580p (Fib retracement).
Watching...

[powerbooks] 03/11/2005 13:15

Who knows which way it will go. I took some some profits on the way down. If we continue North then I will close out.

[rfv] 03/11/2005 12:33

Well how about that Powerbooks. Your pessimism nearly rubbed off and I must confess that I was concerned for a moment. However the market seems to reflect a cautious though positive outlook. I have followed Shire for a long time they are a dynamic company who have never failed to produce the results quarter on quarter. If it wasn't for that git Stahl and his crass comments the price would be way above £6.75 inspite of the awkward times ahead.

[powerbooks] 02/11/2005 09:41

when the drug goes generic earnings will plummet as it will be available cheaper elsewhere. your analogy with microsoft is flawed. no one is going to stop using microsoft anytime soon. linux is FREE and available NOW yet how many desktops use it over XP?

[nod] 28/10/2005 09:36

powerbooks - you mean like Microsoft and Intel and...
the list of companies deriving 50% of profits from one product and its variants would be long.

[powerbooks] 22/10/2005 12:25

Desperate times.

But if you had over 50% of your profits coming from one product you'd be desperate too!

[waldron] 13/10/2005 08:14

Shire submits Citizen Petition to FDA for generic forms of Adderall

LONDON (AFX) - Shire Pharmaceuticals Group PLC said it yesterday submitted a
Citizen Petition with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to require more
rigorous testing for generic or follow-on drug products that reference Adderall
XR, before they can be approved.
Adderall XR is Shire's lead product and treats attention deficit
hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
[e-mail]
slm/

[waldron] 13/10/2005 08:12

ADDERALL XR(R) - Shire submits Citizen Petition to FDA

ADDERALL XR® - Shire submits Citizen Petition on efficacy and safety concerns
with the FDA

Basingstoke, UK and Philadelphia, US October 13, 2005 - Shire Pharmaceuticals
Group plc (LSE: SHP, NASDAQ: SHPGY, TSX: SHQ) announces that on October 12,
2005 it submitted a Citizen Petition with the Food and Drug Administration
(FDA) to require more rigorous bioequivalence testing or additional clinical
testing for generic or follow-on drug products that reference ADDERALL XR®,
before they can be approved. Compliance of these requested criteria will ensure
that generic formulations of ADDERALL XR or follow-on drug products will be
clinically effective and safe.

Shire has requested that the FDA require applicants who seek to obtain
regulatory approval of generic or follow-on versions of ADDERALL XR to
establish bioequivalence through a study producing identical or superimposable
plasma concentration time curves and pharmacokinetic profile. The FDA has
previously determined when reviewing Shire's new drug application for ADDERALL
XR that this is the only way that is sufficiently predictive of desired
attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) clinical patient outcomes to be
substitutable for a clinical efficacy trial. If a generic or follow-on drug
sponsor is unable or unwilling to meet these criteria for establishing
bioequivalence, the FDA should require an adequate and well-controlled clinical
investigation demonstrating the clinical effectiveness and safety of the
generic or follow-on drug product in the treatment of ADHD.

For further information please contact:

Investor Relations Cléa Rosenfeld (Rest of the World) [phone]

Brian Piper (North America) [phone]

Media Jessica Mann (Rest of the World) [phone]

Matthew Cabrey (North America) [phone]

Notes to editors

Shire Pharmaceuticals Group plc

Shire Pharmaceuticals Group plc (Shire) is a global specialty pharmaceutical
company with a strategic focus on meeting the needs of the specialist physician
and currently focuses on developing and marketing products in the areas of
central nervous system (CNS), gastrointestinal (GI), renal diseases and human
genetic therapies. Shire has operations in the world's key pharmaceutical
markets (US, Canada, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany) as well as a
specialist drug delivery unit in the US.

For further information on Shire, please visit the Company's website:
www.shire.com.

"SAFE HARBOR" STATEMENT UNDER THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF
1995

Statements included herein that are not historical facts are forward-looking
statements. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and
uncertainties and are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks or
uncertainties materialize, Shire's results could be materially affected. The
risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks associated with
the inherent uncertainty of pharmaceutical research, product development,
manufacturing and commercialization, the impact of competitive products,
including, but not limited to, the impact of those on Shire's Attention Deficit
and Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) franchise, patents, including, but not
limited to, legal challenges relating to Shire's ADHD franchise, government
regulation and approval, including, but not limited to, the expected product
approval dates of MTS (METHYPATCH) (ADHD), SPD503 (ADHD), SPD465 (ADHD), SPD476
(ulcerative colitis), I2S (iduronate-2-sulfatase) (Hunter syndrome), and NRP104
(ADHD), including its scheduling classification by the Drug Enforcement Agency
in the United States, Shire's ability to benefit from its acquisition of TKT,
Shire's ability to secure new products for commercialization and/or development
and other risks and uncertainties detailed from time to time in Shire's filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on
Form 10-K for the year to December 31, 2004.



Hampshire International Business Park
Chineham Basingstoke
Hampshire RG24 8EP
United Kingdom
Tel [phone]
Fax [phone]
www.shire.com

Press Release


Registered in England 2883758 Registered Office as above



END

[powerbooks] 12/10/2005 12:57

Just took some profits but see more red to come. Need to see 640p tested properly though.

[powerbooks] 22/9/2005 11:25

I agree. The uptrend still looks intact. But all you need is a 20p drop and the chart will start to look altogether different. It needs to quickly get back to 708p. But if we see a drop you can expect margined shorters to drive it much lower.

[markth] 22/9/2005 10:45

It has these wee stutters now and again while it's on the way up. I see no sign of that long, consistent up trend having been broken?

[powerbooks] 22/9/2005 10:27

Still have further to fall IMO.

powerbooks - 31 Aug'05 - 10:33 - 233 of 242 edit

Up?
I thought Adderall XR was going generic in Q1/Q2 2006?
I think it is very much going down whether or not we see 750p in the short to med term. As I see it, it can't keep on rising on falling earnings.

[grassa] 16/9/2005 11:36

Thanks Nod

[nod] 16/9/2005 11:34

Shares in Shire Pharmaceuticals have been downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS, partly on valuation grounds.

It was also partly due to the uncertainty of near term sales forecasts.

UBS noted that there is a wide variability of forecasts in the market for Shire reflecting both near term and longer-term uncertainties post the TKT acquisition. Consequently, the Swiss broker has reviewed both top line and operating costs and is adjusting near term estimates down to reflect heavy investment in sales and marketing, with the benefit being seen later in the decade and beyond.

UBS argued that in the longer term, that is beyond 2007, sales growth should benefit from increased investment, yet the broker noted that the biggest single factors on nearer term sales forecasts are the uncertainty of timing of any Adderall XR generic and the sales potential of NRP104.

As for the valuation, UBS said its 780p price target leaves the stock at an 18%-35% discount to Genzyme on 2007 estimates, albeit at a significant premium to European pharmaceuticals. The broker explained this is not sufficient to remain buyers of the stock.

[grassa] 16/9/2005 11:22

Why the big drop today?

[rfv] 13/9/2005 07:02

I bet you were getting a wee bit excited there Jaafar. We have a mini double
top to possibly lead the way down but I would'nt count on a sustained drop.
Cut your losses. This stock will climb albeit unremarkably.