Shire Share Discussion Threads

[redtom1] 24/9/2018 21:53

Monty,

I'm totally with Rom on this one. Shareholders (bar a few dissenters) have been spoken too are on board. The articles are rehashes of old stories. This will happen and only a market collapse will stop it. 2/3rds vote leaves a lot of space for a dissenters. Shire will definitely vote it through. Will be buying back in shortly.
Tom

[montyhedge] 24/9/2018 20:23

Directors managed the business, shareholders own the company. It's down to shareholders who vote not directors.

[romeike] 24/9/2018 12:09

Worth noting Takeda are now heavily invested in the merger having taken and in the process of implementing a series of decisions to integrate the businesses and seeking additional approvals for Shire drugs in Japan. Someone at the Sunday Times seems to have an axe to grind re: Takeda. Third article in a row, no "facts", nothing new, just regurgitating the same old anonymous "family members" or "major shareholder" "not happy with deal". Never heard of a deal ever that everyone was happy with. What matters is that the majority support it. I believe Shire could have waited for a better price from elsewhere but integration is in progress now and it would only be harmful for both parties to halt it at this point, Shire less so, assuming it receives the substantial compensation from any such action on Takeda's part.

[toffeeman] 24/9/2018 11:14

Is that an inverse H&S - if so target = 4870

[montyhedge] 23/9/2018 15:21

Not a done deal yet.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/top-takeda-investor-wary-of-shire-bid-mjldps9gz

[redtom1] 23/9/2018 14:54

Monty, this will be voted through. No issue. The only concern would be a wider market correction. Barring this, this will happen in the New Year. The gap has closed between the share price and offer which indicates a market acceptance that the risks are diminishing by the day.

[montyhedge] 23/9/2018 12:45

Two thirds Takeda shareholders have to say yes, I think it will be close.

[redtom1] 18/9/2018 10:38

Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5,017p made up of 2,311p in cash & 2,706p in shares.
With current share price of 4,482p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 11.93% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 106p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 222p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4737
£:$ = 1.31246
£:Yen = 146.89

[dwinn78] 18/9/2018 08:20

That's takeda up about 7% in the past week.

[romeike] 14/9/2018 10:24

Takeda more or less confirmed they will look to assets disposals to cut down debt immediately on taking control next year.Targeting at least $5 billion in the first instance. This of course makes total sense and was no doubt factored in all along.

[fangorn2] 13/9/2018 10:55

Takeda Is Said to Weigh Sale of Shire Eye Drug to Cut Debt

Japanese firm also assesses divestment of Natpara medicine
Disposals could raise about $4 billion to $5 billion

[romeike] 11/9/2018 16:52

Exactly. Haven't heard much dissent from the idea that Takeda need to do something radical. That is why they brought in Weber in the first place. At the end of the day they have no near or mid term pipeline and they are overexposed to their home market.

[pete160] 11/9/2018 07:04

A strong recovery in takeda overnight. I would have thought that if the minority takeda shareholders want to scupper this deal, their efforts would be better directed at getting someone else to outbid them for shp.

[swedeee] 10/9/2018 18:24

not out of the woods yet it seems

[romeike] 10/9/2018 15:03

Also seems that the small minority of the family, none of whom presumably actually have business experience, have not proposed any alternative plan to the CEO as to how to deal with the issues that the Shire deal resolves for Takeda, or any suggestions on how much it would cost Takeda to build a development pipeline from scratch.

[montyhedge] 10/9/2018 13:36

Problem is cash in dollars, paper in Yen, shares quoted sterling, does not suit everyone, my guess it won't happen.

[steeplejack] 10/9/2018 08:37

The article concludes by saying few analysts see the deal being derailed.

[pete160] 09/9/2018 11:52

From my brief reading of the Sunday Times pieces - both front page and inside, I don't think that any of it is new news.

The gist of the story seems to be that a small minority of the Takeda family don't like that their original company is changing through the purchase of SHP.

However, even the article says that this involves only a small minority of the family, who are minority shareholders in any case, that their initial stirrings to try to block the deal have come to nought and that they are unlikely to find significant support to make any difference going forward.

The article highlights the dangers (to Takeda) of the debt being taken on to fund the deal but then also mentions that a significant proportion of the purchase price is being funded via the issuing of new shares.

My opinion is that I very much doubt that this will derail the takeover.

I see the main threat to the deal completing being an overall market correction of 25%+ in which case all deals will look to be pulled or renegotiated.

Despite taking a slice of profits earlier on I still have a disproportionately large slice of my portfolio in SHP but I'm toying with the idea of buying more due to the 14% gap in the potential prices and also the reducing timeframe for the deal to complete.

Regardless of the Takeda family comments, in my opinion the risks of the deal not completing - relative to the potential upside in price, is reducing.

[dwinn78] 09/9/2018 08:20

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/japan-s-takeda-family-brands-shire-deal-a-disaster-29gxn02f5

[dwinn78] 07/9/2018 14:27

What's your thoughts on the recent sharp drop in takeda red?

[redtom1] 07/9/2018 11:59

Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4,875p made up of 2,331p in cash & 2,545p in shares.
With current share price of 4,288p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 13.69% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 319p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 293p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4374
£:$ = 1.30136
£:Yen = 144.221

[dwinn78] 07/9/2018 06:00

Takeda currently down 3%. Shire will be under pressure today if it doesn't recover.

[fangorn2] 06/9/2018 18:20

"Shire retreated as it announced the acquisition of Switzerland's Sanaplasma AG for an undisclosed sum and as its stock went ex-dividend"

Slim Divi though...

Anyone heard more about the acquisition?

[dwinn78] 06/9/2018 08:20

Nope , vote still to happen .

[montyhedge] 06/9/2018 08:04

Out of touch on Shire since I sold out, has both group of shareholders agreed bid ?