Shire Share Discussion Threads

[redtom1] 29/6/2018 08:06

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5021p with 2314p in cash and 2707p in shares.
With current share price of 4310p, the share price would need to rise 16.49% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 142p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 261p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4678
£:$ = 1.31102
£:Yen = 144.97

[nigelpm] 29/6/2018 08:05

In my case taken a decent profit and see opportunities elsewhere.

[adamb1978] 29/6/2018 08:00

Not sure that I understand why people are selling here. SHP shareholders will definitely accept the offer in sufficient numbers and we now know that Takeda shareholders dont want to block it.

Given markets are flat this year and there's no obvious catalyst to get markets going again, and on the contrary there are a lot of negative threats to the market, leaving c.20% on the table is a ballsy move by sellers IMO. I understand that the deal might not go through til early next year, and there's flowback risk with the Takeda paper, but the current price is one hell of a discount. I'm not seeing many things available at the moment which has an event which will drag the price up 20% over the next 6-9 monts

[badwood] 29/6/2018 06:13

Atsushi Seki, an analyst with UBS, wrote a note to clients last week, pointing out shareholder uncertainty and concern over the size of the deal. “Investors are taking a wait-and-see stance” toward the company stock. Seki upgraded Takeda stock to “buy” from “neutral”; and raised its price target to 5,700 yen. It is currently trading at 4,524 yen. Seki also reported that a survey of 60 Japanese investors showed 31 percent viewed the Shire deal negatively. That probably means 19 out of 60 did not approve, which likely gives the opposing group some hope for scuttling the deal still.

[ken tennis] 29/6/2018 05:55

Ruethewhirl it's a long hard road at times but I've learnt over the years not to pull the plug until your in good profit.
This share could go to £48 but don't think it will get there till next year so like you I'm all out, it took me a year but I did end up with a nice profit so I'm happy with that.
All the best them that's still holding I hope all goes well.
I see takeda is good again today so fingers crossed it may hit £43 soon

Ken

[nigelpm] 28/6/2018 21:44

@fan - I may come back in - still good value but funds needed elsewhere - see SIA/SQZ et al!!

[fangorn2] 28/6/2018 20:53

@NigelPM

Still holding all mine - probably wont cut and run. Will see it through right to the bitter end! (You know me)

[dwinn78] 28/6/2018 16:52

Massive boost for deal going through today imo

[dwinn78] 28/6/2018 16:51

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/takeda-shareholder-group-proposal-fails-041731436.html?guccounter=1

[pete160] 28/6/2018 08:30

Me too - have halved my position this morning @ c. 4180(and moved on to BARC and PETS)

[redtom1] 28/6/2018 08:21

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4950p with 2320p in cash and 2630p in shares.
With current share price of 4189p, the share price would need to rise 18.18% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 232p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 281p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4524
£:$ = 1.30719
£:Yen = 144.307

[nigelpm] 28/6/2018 08:15

Joined you - been a fun ride but to take stock.

[ruethewhirl] 28/6/2018 08:13

YES this is the pop I've been waiting for, finally, after all the Shire management BS, I'm finally completely out.

I held right through the dip of late 2017, early 2018, and added along the way.

Ended up being my largest position in a stock ever.

Today I'm cashing out.

Good luck to remaining holders (and true believers), I'm sure you'll get there in the end, but I'm going to ground for a while, out of the UK market completely for a while, maybe a long while.

[demo trader] 28/6/2018 07:56

+VE SHP TODAY

[redtom1] 26/6/2018 10:44

Thanks Ken for your kind words. I hope the retirement hope stays alive too! ;-)
I too have BT and I like that article. I think there are serious gains to be had with that stock and if they maintain the dividend then its a great income stock too.

Back to Shire. Interesting widening of the value gap. Now 21.2%
Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4897p with 2294p in cash and 2603p in shares.
With current share price of 4040p, the share price would need to rise 21.22% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 244p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 240p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4502
£:$ = 1.322
£:Yen = 145.097

[ken tennis] 26/6/2018 08:06

Monty,this article is an interesting read about BT
You may have already read it but if not copy the link below.

hxxps://www.morningstar.com/articles/870186/bts-fundamental-value-is-overlooked.html

I know this is the shire board and I'm out now but I think if other people
Are interested in a certain company why not share as much info as possible this is a tough game to be in and you can get burnt very badly if the wrong decision is made.
I hope Redtoms makes his retirement fund.
All the best.
Ken

[montyhedge] 25/6/2018 23:50

I really like BT at these levels.

[ken tennis] 25/6/2018 09:42

Ruethewhirl, that's me out just sold my last 1000
Shares 4105.59.
Just don't want to risk what it's took me since last June, however if the deal don't go through I will dip In again once things settle down as there's no stamp on this one.
I've got a few BT so thinking of topping up there before divi date as in the past it appears to have a reasonable rise upto about 6 weeks before the larger divi distributed in august.
Good luck all holders. DYOR.
Ken.

[ruethewhirl] 25/6/2018 08:52

With you Ken, I just closed out another quarter of my original position.

Down to a remaining quarter of what I had pre announcement.

[redtom1] 25/6/2018 08:33

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4915p with 2292p in cash and 2623p in shares.
With current share price of 4099p, the share price would need to rise 19.9% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 230p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 244p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4526
£:$ = 1.32312
£:Yen = 144.802

[ken tennis] 25/6/2018 06:58

Takeda looking good again today so may close my position entirely in shire if it hits £41.00 again I have already sold 75% of my holding last week.
I have been buying into shire since last year so it been a long haul to get back to profit.
Took a chance and made a big buy at £31.00 which brought my average downs to just over £35 so don't want to throw it all away if deal don't go through.
I don't normally post on boards just analyse the info which in most has been pretty good, especially Redtoms updates on the value of the offer.
Good luck to all those that have the balls of steel as they say to hold this until after the 28th which we all know will be crucial.
All the best Ken.

[montyhedge] 22/6/2018 16:01

mbmiah and scobak, remember deal not complete until next year, so long way to go, both lot of shareholders have to vote, Shire need 75% to say yes.
Also down to currency movement, cash in dollars, paper in yen Shire in sterling.