Shire Share Discussion Threads

[podgyted] 18/6/2018 12:04

I agree it's down to the big funds. My presumption is that Takeda are talking to their's.

I haven't forgotten Shire's shareholders which is why, as I said, it will be interesting if their financial information continues to improve.

[montyhedge] 18/6/2018 10:57

I still can't call this.https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/opponents-to-takeda-s-62b-buyout-shire-gain-support-but-need-much-more

[montyhedge] 17/6/2018 11:14

Really you think the vote in the bag, some Takeda shareholders calling the deal madness taking on all this debt.Founders also unhappy.It's down to the big funds.Don't forget also 75% if Shire shareholders have to vote, the deal is worth less now.

[podgyted] 17/6/2018 00:36

Yep, they'll vote with the board cos they've already virtually certainly given the nod on that one - any that aren't comfortable will have sold out already. Remember Takeda need this deal otherwise they will die on the vine.

By the time they buy it, Shire's debt will be much reduced. There will be a plan on divisions to offload quickly so Takeda's debt will be manageable in the medium-term.

What will be interesting is if Shire's results continue to improve give the long-term horizon of the bid going through. It seems we will have full year 2018 results and possibly 2019 interim results before then - what if they're really good?!?!

PT

[dwinn78] 15/6/2018 13:40

They'll vote with the board

[montyhedge] 15/6/2018 10:42

Muti-currency factorials to consider, cash in dollars, paper in Yen, Shire quoted in pounds. With some Takeda shareholders calling the deal madness, taking on all this debt and the founders not happy, what will the japanese fund managers do with their votes?

[ruethewhirl] 15/6/2018 08:52

Nige, I guess you could call me a bear, I've been selling.

Not expecting it to go much higher than 42 short term.

Far cry from the 49 that was offered.

[redtom1] 15/6/2018 08:13

Agreed.
All looking much more encouraging. Long may it continue.
Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4794p with 2294p in cash and 2500p in shares.
With current share price of 4090p, the share price would need to rise 17.2% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 320p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 212p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4365
£:$ = 1.32212
£:Yen = 146.511

[nigelpm] 15/6/2018 08:05

back up to £41 and silence from the bears - not looking so clever now chaps?

[redtom1] 13/6/2018 11:45

hxxps://www.takeda.com/siteassets/system/investors/shareholders-meetings/letter_1806_en.pdf

This is the letter from Takeda CEO to Takeda shareholders for their AGM on 28th June.

[dwinn78] 13/6/2018 10:49

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/takeda-ceo-speaks-out-on-selling-japan-s-biggest-overseas-deal

[ruethewhirl] 13/6/2018 02:04

I've been getting out on strength, I'm down to half my pre-offer holding.

Not hanging around to see if thing gets up, not worth it.

[montyhedge] 12/6/2018 18:09

Reading that article, I gone from 80/20 down to 40/60 now 30/70 it will go through, I be down to 25 per cent to 75 per cent anymore articles like that, lol.

[dwinn78] 12/6/2018 17:21

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/takeda-and-shire-have-a-60-billion-drug-problem-1.1091318

[dwinn78] 12/6/2018 17:18

Yeah monty it certainly isn't straightforward and tbh i would prefer shp to be bought by a bigger player or focus on paying the debt down and growing . Thats a longterm view though and I cant see that happening . Unless another bidder appears or takeda keeps sinking I would bet the deal goes through.

[swedeee] 12/6/2018 17:07

hxxps://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/opponents-to-takeda-s-62b-buyout-shire-gain-support-but-need-much-more

[montyhedge] 12/6/2018 14:37

Dwinn78
Don't bet on it, some Takeda shareholders not happy and calling it madness to take on all this debt, 75% of Shire shareholders have to approve, its messy, cash in dollars, paper in Yen, Shire quoted pounds, to many multi-factorial exchange risks.
If it say had been GSK, 4700p cash and shares all sterling no problem, 95% go through, I just can't call this one, only my view of course.

[dwinn78] 12/6/2018 14:12

Unless the current return to shp shareholders drops another +15% itll go through no probs .imo

[montyhedge] 12/6/2018 11:40

Thanks redtom, odds going through for me 40/60. I was 80/20 at one point, lol got carried away.

[redtom1] 12/6/2018 09:59

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4753p with 2262p in cash and 2491p in shares.
With current share price of 4012p, the share price would need to rise 18.5% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 306p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 158p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.

Takeda = Y4384
£:$ 1.34049
£:Y 147.650

[montyhedge] 12/6/2018 09:45

RedtomWhat's the latest valuation, must be under 4700p.Cash in dollars, paper in yen, Shire in pounds, all the stars have to align to get a good valuation.

[montyhedge] 11/6/2018 15:40

Always seems a sell off when US opens.

[fangorn2] 08/6/2018 11:10

Takeda secures $7.5bn bank loans to help fund Shire deal

Takeda has entered into a $7.5bn term loan credit agreement with banks JP Morgan Chase, Sumitomo Mitsui, MUFG and Mizuho, with the majority of the funding committed by Japanese institutions.



The heavy demand to participate in the agreement - exceeding our financing need of 7.5bn USD - reflects a strong vote-of-confidence from these leading global financial institutions in Takeda and our strategy to continue generating value for our investors."