Shire Share Discussion Threads

[redtom1] 05/9/2018 11:36

Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates,was 5,042p made up of 2,367p in cash & 2,675p in shares.
With current share price of 4,410p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 14.33% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 214p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 355p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4558
£:$ = 1.28115
£:Yen = 142.993

[romeike] 05/9/2018 10:49

For what it is worth, I've been a Shire shareholder since it was a really small company and I'm holding for this deal. Takeda are getting excellent value and they know it, meanwhile Shire continues to deliver strong sales performance. Investors with significant holdings will want to hold for the paper for tax purposes and also to benefit from the improving Takeda shareprice and what I expect to be increasingly favourable FX given the likely shenanigans ahead for GBP.

[dwinn78] 05/9/2018 10:36

What's the value of the deal today red?

[fangorn2] 31/8/2018 09:39

Shire, meanwhile, said it had completed the sale of its oncology franchise to Servier for $2.4bn. Its shares were broadly unchanged.



"Some petty cash!"

:)

[toffeeman] 30/8/2018 14:11

Can it hold on to 45?....

[redtom1] 29/8/2018 09:35

Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5,048p made up of 2,356p in cash & 2,692p in shares.
With current share price of 4,540p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 11.19% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 193p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 340p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4594
£:$ = 1.2876
£:Yen = 143.153

[redtom1] 29/8/2018 09:25

I would bail out at a 5% discount.
But I'm not sure that we will get to see that low a level until the bitter end if at all.
Personally I may well take the Takeda Paper, particularly if it means realising the additional value. Shire is performing well so it will enhance Takeda's earnings and I think the markets may well embrace the deal (initially). However, I suspect that the integration will be more problematic down the line so I would not hold onto to Takeda for more than a year or so.
I know a lot of people think that the additional Takeda Paper will trigger a mass selling (ie by people who don't really want it) but in reality this will not be material. PPs will sell but this is small beer in scheme of things. Institutions on the whole will want to keep hold of stock in the enlarged Group. Japanese holders that are unhappy are already bailing out so by mid next year I think the shareholder base will be positive towards the deal and that Takeda share price will actually rise rather than fall as most of the uncertainty will have gone. All in my opinion of course.

[podgyted] 29/8/2018 01:25

Thx Redtom.

At what level of discount are you thinking of bailing out - on the assumption you don't want (like me) Takeda shares.

[redtom1] 28/8/2018 08:46

The Gap is closing...Only 11.3%

Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5,077p made up of 2,351p in cash & 2,726p in shares.
With current share price of 4,560p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 11.35% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 154p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 330p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4660
£:$ = 1.28992
£:Yen = 143.417

[swedeee] 25/8/2018 12:13

It’s not going to fall through. Takeda already restructuring management in anticipation of the deal

[cflather2000] 25/8/2018 11:22

I want the deal to fall through, although I guess most here want it to complete. I bought into shire at 4000 in autumn last year and was planning to hold until the value showed through on the merits of shire as a whole. I sold out for break even after the offer as it didn't suit my tiny holding. If this deal breaks down, I'll consider buying back in. Shire has a lot going for it as an independent company

[ruethewhirl] 25/8/2018 06:53

Toff - a lot can happen in 9 months.

I believe the 14% does not adequately reflect the risk, and I sold a while back.

Not saying anyone should do likewise - do what you want - but if the deal falls through (as mergers / takeovers often do) - Shire's share price will implode.

3000 or less may well be on the cards in that scenario.

Not worth the risk in my view.

No one should think this deal is a fait accompli, far from it.

[dwinn78] 24/8/2018 15:06

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/24/one-less-hurdle-shiretakeda-deal-potential-blockbuster-drug/

[ali47fish] 24/8/2018 14:33

the motley fool says sell and i am anmxious thet the takeda share price is falling every day- the shares we will inherit as takeda shares will have lost a lot of value so what garantees an eventual turnaround? if the share price of shire keeps going up isnt it better to cash these shares and be done with it- any insightful response welcome!

[toffeeman] 24/8/2018 09:29

A close above 45 today would be positive.

[toffeeman] 22/8/2018 15:37

redtom - you are a gent and a scholar, I wouldn't have responded so politely:)

[redtom1] 22/8/2018 10:08

Hi, in simple terms, Takeda (a Japanese Co) has made an offer to buy the whole of Shire plc. The deal has yet to be voted on by both sets of shareholders and these votes will be at end of year or early next year. Deal is likely to conclude before HY 2019. You can find out more from both Shire & Takeda websites.
The offer is $30.33 cash and 0.839 of a Takeda share for each shire share. so the value (in GBP) is always moving because of Takeda share price movements and the £:$ and £:Y exchange rates.

Updated value:
Value of the Takeda offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5,053p made up of 2,354p in cash & 2,699p in shares.
With current share price of 4,424p the current Shire share price would need to rise by 14.22% to match.
From the original offer valued at 4901p, we've lost 206p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 358p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda share price (Yen) = 4574
£:$ = 1.28836
£:Yen = 142.195

[compnews1] 22/8/2018 09:00

Hi Redtom1, thanks for sharing the infor. Sorry what offer was that and by whom and where I can get this infor. Thanks again

[redtom1] 21/8/2018 08:29

That share price should read 4447p not 4490p

[redtom1] 21/8/2018 08:27

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5070p with 2363p in cash and 2707p in shares.
With current share price of 4490p, the share price would need to rise 14.01% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 217p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 386p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4557
£:$ = 1.28328
£:Yen = 141.257

[dwinn78] 14/8/2018 07:32

Takeda down yet again , thought the price had some forward momentum but the past week had been poor.

[danieldanj] 13/8/2018 07:34

Shire (SHP) News Out Just Now

[redtom1] 09/8/2018 17:22

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5145p with 2358p in cash and 2787p in shares.
With current share price of 4490p, the share price would need to rise 14.60% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 107p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 351p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4741
£:$ = 1.28624
£:Yen = 142.704

[redtom1] 08/8/2018 10:58

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5132p with 2350p in cash and 2782p in shares.
With current share price of 4490p, the share price would need to rise 14.29% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 103p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 333p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4748
£:$ = 1.29081
£:Yen = 143.194