Shire Share Discussion Threads

[dwinn78] 06/8/2018 09:41

Wondering how much notice will be given on the date of the approval vote for both companies .

[redtom1] 01/8/2018 08:11

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5078p with 2313p in cash and 2765p in shares.
With current share price of 4410p, the share price would need to rise 15.14% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 45p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 221p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4844
£:$ = 1.31147
£:Yen = 146.991

[pete160] 01/8/2018 06:53

Takes up 3.5%, a good start to a recovery and hopefully will be reflected in SHP today

[fangorn2] 31/7/2018 14:53

Some interesting FT articles....


Shire’s immunology unit shines in Q2 but haemophilia sales stall






Takeda profits plunge after losing US exclusivity for cancer drug

The results are expected to bolster Takeda’s case for its £46bn takeover of Irish drugmaker Shire, a deal that will help to strengthen its pipeline and catapult the company into the ranks of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical companies.

Still, analysts say the overall landscape remains challenging with Takeda’s pipeline lacking big late-development experimental drugs, underscoring the Japanese group’s desire to acquire Shire’s lucrative rare diseases portfolio.

[dwinn78] 31/7/2018 12:16

Yeah no surprises from what im reading . Debt reduced as expected . Takeda are getting a good deal imo .

[podgyted] 31/7/2018 12:10

Solid results

[fangorn2] 29/7/2018 21:00

Takeda's Front-Line Lung Cancer Win

AstraZeneca's Thyroid Cancer Fail, Sarepta's Clinical Hold, Takeda's Front-Line Lung Cancer Win

[redtom1] 25/7/2018 12:03

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5018p with 2305p in cash and 2713p in shares.
With current share price of 4333p, the share price would need to rise 15.83% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 112p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 229p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4727
£:$ = 1.31581
£:Yen = 146.21

[romeike] 23/7/2018 15:48

Profit taking ahead of results next week. Results ought to be in line with expectations but maybe some currency headwind.

[montyhedge] 23/7/2018 15:45

Cash in dollars, paper in yen, quoted in sterling. I suppose all the stars have to align for shareprice to go further ahead.

[dwinn78] 23/7/2018 11:29

Down over 1% today so far , following up from Friday's drop.

[redtom1] 20/7/2018 15:56

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5022p with 2314p in cash and 2708p in shares.
With current share price of 4390p, the share price would need to rise 14.39% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 112p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 232p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4728
£:$ = 1.31084
£:Yen = 146.483

[dwinn78] 19/7/2018 14:04

Im still surprised there hasnt been another rival bid. Takeda earnings at the end of the month im sure so fingers crossed this can move total value to 53-55 range .

[redtom1] 19/7/2018 12:44

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5041p with 2334p in cash and 2707p in shares.
With current share price of 4422p, the share price would need to rise 14.00% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 108p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 248p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4734
£:$ = 1.29929
£:Yen = 146.749

[redtom1] 18/7/2018 14:41

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5019p with 2325p in cash and 2694p in shares.
With current share price of 4398p, the share price would need to rise 14.13% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 113p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 231p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4725
£:$ = 1.30424
£:Yen = 147.164

[romeike] 18/7/2018 14:00

redtom - I agree - keep saying I won't be surprised to see the real value of the deal exceed what was offered.

[toffeeman] 18/7/2018 08:16

TVM red - I understand.

[redtom1] 17/7/2018 14:05

The ultimate price of Shire shares will become much closer to cash/Takeda paper value as we get to the close.
The value is currently around 4970p and I think the Takeda share price will continue to recover a little bit.
The fx rates could also have a significant impact but that could be in either direction.

Why do you ask about £49 specifically? The share price can be anything but is going to trend towards the value of the cash element (subject to £:USD) and Takeda Paper (subject to £:Yen).

I think we may be looking at £50+ at time of deal in Q1 2019. Of course it could be very different from this too!

[toffeeman] 17/7/2018 13:44

Please explain why it should go above 49

[redtom1] 17/7/2018 13:29

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4972p with 2300p in cash and 2672p in shares.
With current share price of 4332p, the share price would need to rise 14.78% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 109p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 180p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.
Takeda (Yen) = 4730
£:$ = 1.31888
£:Yen = 148.494

My personal 'get out' price is £51.

[fangorn2] 17/7/2018 10:11

@Ken,
Not really sure tbh.

Really depends on Macro situ as recession is on the horizon(Mid 2019?)

I'm pretty confident ADRs will be easy to trade - the Yen shares, not so sure. Hargreaves Lansdown wont accept Aussie stocks so what chance Japanese ones?

Am with TD so not expecting issues either way on either. My main concern is getting the shares then standing in front of a tsunami of sellers who don't want Takeda exposure/foreign share exposure.

[toffeeman] 17/7/2018 08:50

1. Ken - I do my best. I keep taking the Michael, telling her that she should do more a la Madge. She's all there thank goodness even noticed my number plate was different (same car) the other day.2. I have no problem trading overseas stocks with AJ Bell - just fx charge. 3. I will look at 47+ as my exit.Best

[ken tennis] 17/7/2018 06:10

Takeda looking strong again today and shire lost a little yesterday but I think it may do well today as it's been ranging in 43.00 to 43.75 over the last week if it don't shoot up on open and I can get in at around
43.20 I will have a Pop at day trading this for a while as there's no stamp to pay, but don't want to get locked in.

Fangorn so your thinking of around the £48.00 mark.
I understand what you say about staying until the final takeover as the split in shares between the 2 companies may be a awkward to trade.
All the best.
Ken.

[fangorn2] 16/7/2018 19:13

@Ken,

I'm looking to get as close to the final acquisition price without actually having to take delivery of either the Yen denominated or ADR shares.
Don't want to be selling into the Foreign stakeholder dump..