Shire Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 08/6/2018 08:30

So downside 20% upside 18.5%.I just can't see Takeda voting this through, let alone Shire 75% needed.Some Takeda shareholders calling it madness taking on all the debt.

[redtom1] 08/6/2018 08:08

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4711p with 2260p in cash and 2451p in shares.
With current share price of 3975p, the share price would need to rise 18.5% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 361p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 171p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.


Monty, still here! Still holding and thinking it is still 60:40.

[montyhedge] 07/6/2018 08:29

Should be on their website, it's about a press article.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2018 08:28

Not especially - just clarification.

[where is my money] 07/6/2018 08:23

My usual sites are down. What does rns say?

[montyhedge] 07/6/2018 08:14

Seems a strange rns to put out?

[montyhedge] 06/6/2018 11:49

With some Takeda shareholders calling the deal madness, the founders don't like it.
Whats the odds boys 50/50 or 40/60

Redtom where you gone, I bet you sold out.

[montyhedge] 06/6/2018 06:30

I see SmufitKappa bid off, bidder just walked away, arbitrage boys fingers burnt. But share price was telling you that might happen.

[scfc1] 05/6/2018 22:04

For every buy there is always a sell. The figures quoted on buys -v- sells are meaningless and totally misleading.

[podgyted] 05/6/2018 15:35

???? What would happen / would you do if a hostile cash offer of 44GBP was made now??

[montyhedge] 05/6/2018 14:42

Just read the article Takeda founding members against the deal, well thats not good. Thank goodness they don't need 75% of of votes like Shire. Some Takeda shareholders calling the deal madness. Think the founders have around 10%.

[montyhedge] 05/6/2018 11:49

Buys to sells 2 to 1, going higher. Also when the yanks come in at 2.30pm I expect Shire to get nearer the 4000p mark.

[fangorn2] 05/6/2018 11:43

@Kammy

"Fumiyoshi Sakai, analyst at Credit Suisse, questioned whether the group could win the support of retail investors to block the Shire deal, saying Takeda had promised to maintain its current dividend policy. But he added: “The institutional investors in Japan don’t seem to have made up their minds yet on how they view this Shire deal.”

Interesting comment here.

Thanks for the article.

[kamitora] 05/6/2018 11:39

Takeda shareholders band together against £46bn Shire deal


Summary of which is that the dissidents have just over 1% of the stock but their influence may be much greater as it includes several founding family members.

[where is my money] 05/6/2018 10:40

Oh no , its pooping again!. Hi i am new to advfn. I usually post on lse chat as its free and no time restriction. I am heavily invested in shire and waiting for it hit my very lowly target price. What boggles my mind is that last night takeda recovered over a percent , usa stabalised somewhat and yet against all those positives this poop is still stuck in toilet. Lets hope it moves up a bit when usa opens....what a nightmare this stock has been and still is. ;-)

[montyhedge] 05/6/2018 08:37

As we know Shire figures were superb, article said will ease Takeda shareholders fear. They are getting a bargain buying on a low p.e in my view.https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/shire-posts-good-start-quarter-amid-takeda-takeover-try

[montyhedge] 05/6/2018 07:04

Should be back over 4000p, gives a 20% discount.

[montyhedge] 05/6/2018 05:09

Takeda also good recovery last night.

[montyhedge] 04/6/2018 18:26

Recovering well in US tonight, I reckon back over 4000p tomorrow.

[scfc1] 04/6/2018 18:07

Maybe Shire should bid for it as it's so much bigger than Takeda now! ;-)

[pete160] 04/6/2018 17:13

Here's a left field thought to throw in. Perhaps Takeda has fallen enough that one of the big pharmas will bid for them? The defence could be to drop the bid or a bidder might say that they intend to drop the bid.

If the Takeda bid for SHP is aborted then hopefully either someone else will pick up where they left off (after the initial shock drop) or the SHP bod will sort themselves out and look after the shareholders?

[montyhedge] 04/6/2018 16:40

ali47
Of course shares will fall as the abritrage boys who have been selling Takeda and buying Shire, exit, Takeda will rise 15% and Shire will fall 10%.
My point being Shire as a stand alone company if bid fails is very good value and on a low p.e.
Takeda japanese investors will not vote against a board recommendation.
Lets see what Takeda do tonight.

[nigelpm] 04/6/2018 16:00

Upside 20%'ish with downside about the same for me.

Market currently thinks deal is 50:50.

[scfc1] 04/6/2018 15:55

Monty, I think your figures are probably too high for the upside (given the currency and paper risks) and too low for the downside...all imho of course.