Shire Share Discussion Threads

[redtom1] 04/6/2018 10:08

Fangorn2,

I hope Nigel has a Japanese tan. How lovely.

I totally agree that the Board of Takeda will not want to pull out.
You're missing my point. It is not the Board than concerns me. In fact it is the Board's desire to get this done that gives me some hope of success.
But the shareholders have to approve it and many are not Japanese and are not going to vote 'to save face'. That is such a naive view, wow. Welcome to the 21st Century of investing!
Irrespective of where this deal is happening (ie Japan), international funds want a good deal for their investors. The buck literally stops with them, period. It is about money and the Takeda shareholders may force the hand of the Board.
I don't know which way this will go as there is a long time to go and Weber will be sweet talking to Takeda shareholders. I hope he is successful in selling Takeda's future vision but I struggle when people post such black/white statements when we have already suffered a 23% fall in share price since first announced.
The deal in is the balance is all I am saying and not a done deal. If Takeda takns much further, this could become an issue for the Shire vote too.
But bottom line, Takeda Board will have to pull deal if they don't get the 2/3rds vote. And that is by no means certain despite the rose tinted spectacles that you wear.

[redtom1] 04/6/2018 09:56

Nigel,

Ok, simple questions then. Why do you think that Takeda are not going to have to pull thier offer given the Takeda SP? Are you very confident that Takeda will vote this through?

[nigelpm] 04/6/2018 09:28

Nigel, where does your blind optimism come from other than being a wish statement?

Where do you get that premise based on my post. All I was saying is that Takeda are not going to pull their offer - very simple statement - all your other chatter "city expert" is utter nonsense. Of course shareholders in either company may not vote for it hence the discount.

[fangorn2] 04/6/2018 09:01

Nigel, where does your blind optimism come from other than being a wish statement?

I presume because he has had more experience of the Japanese than you is why!
Japanese culture is very different to the Anglo Saxon West.

They are very patient, they think long & hard over their acquisitions and they are reluctant to pull out (Saving Face) if things don't go as planned.

I'm reasonably confident they will complete.

Could be wrong though :)

[billytkid2] 04/6/2018 08:52

Shire shares dropping isn’t necessarily an indication the market believes the bid will fail. Surely the discount rate is the best indicator. RedTom kindly posted that is around 17.4% which is inline with where it has been ever since the deal was agreed.

[redtom1] 04/6/2018 08:38

The general definition of 'few' is a small number.
According to the City expert Nigelpm, few actually means 23. Nice one.

[redtom1] 04/6/2018 08:33

dealy,
Yes there is a big break fee if Takeda pull out. This is only likely to happen if they lose the shareholder vote. I doubt they would pull out pre the vote. The Fee is around $1bn+.

[redtom1] 04/6/2018 08:31

Nigel, where does your blind optimism come from other than being a wish statement? The Takeda Board does not want to withdraw the offer but they would have to if they lose the shareholder vote. Takeda has now lost 23.3% since making the bid. This is a huge loss and not one to dismiss lightly.

Barring a calamitous world event, there are 2 main hurdles to this deal being completed, the shire shareholder vote and the Takeda vote.

Just looking at the Takeda vote, would you vote yes when you know that a 'no' vote would give you an instant increase of 10-15%? A yes vote will keep the share price low with the hope of 'jam tomorrow'.

With Shire now going sub 4000p, the market are starting to hint where the odds are heading.

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4696p with 2268p in cash and 2428p in shares.
With current share price of 4000p, the share price would need to rise 17.4% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 389p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 185p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements.

[dealy] 04/6/2018 08:25

that wasn't my question

[nigelpm] 04/6/2018 07:26

They aren't going to withdraw their bid.

[dealy] 02/6/2018 17:18

Do Takeda have to pay a break up fee if they withdraw their bid before it is approved by shareholders?

[scfc1] 01/6/2018 17:15

Not sure about the percentages you quote but you're absolutely right on the respective share price directions if the deal were to fall through. This is a good deal for Shire shareholders (given the previous few months dire share price performance) and a bad deal for Takeda (especially in the short term).

[nigelpm] 01/6/2018 16:00

Fangorn right on the money. Always makes me laugh when punters see a few percentage points drop and cack themselves. Patience is a virtue in the stock market but it's not very common :)

[dwinn78] 01/6/2018 14:12

If the takeda board really have been planning this deal for 2 years they must have expected and planned for the panic in some investors . The 28th of June will be when the battle lines get drawn .

[fangorn2] 01/6/2018 14:08

@Redtom1

.Fangorn2, does a 22% fall since announcing their interest in Shire still make you shrug your shoulders?

Why would it not cause concern?

Cmon, a 3.5% intra day fall is nothing. It's just hysterical nonsense to try to portray such as being mahoosive

[montyhedge] 01/6/2018 12:00

Only saying 20% nothing wrong with Shire of course, but would be such a rush to the exit, it would be overdone. Don't know give up trying to predict this one. Cash in dollars, paper in yen, Shire quoted pounds, Takeda hitting lows. Who knows what will happen.

[montyhedge] 01/6/2018 11:45

20% fall Shire if off. Takeda up 15%.

[dealy] 01/6/2018 11:40

I think the deal will be abandoned and Takeda shares will rise 15% and Shire shares will fall modestly if at all

[redtom1] 01/6/2018 11:37

Fangorn2, does a 22% fall since announcing their interest in Shire still make you shrug your shoulders?
Not faux shock frankly.

[fangorn2] 01/6/2018 11:08

"Wow, Takeda fall is really on now.
Down 3.5% today."


Are you 12?

3.5% fall is nothing in a day.

Faux shock frankly.

[montyhedge] 01/6/2018 09:31

Two lots of shareholders unhappy.Takeda because shareprice lost so much and they think to much debt.Shire shareholders now offer to low. Cash in dollars, paper in yen, Shire quoted in pounds. Takeda need Shire most than Shire need Takeda, good results from Shire.

[ruethewhirl] 01/6/2018 09:31

Mate, if Takeda keeps falling at this rate, 5/95 will be the odds by the end of next week.

[montyhedge] 01/6/2018 09:22

I would put it now 40/60 to go through if Takeda keep falling.

[ruethewhirl] 01/6/2018 08:38

Wow, Takeda fall is really on now.

Down 3.5% today.

Plumbing new lows daily.

Unloaded a bit more today, tbh I think the likelihood of the deal going through is looking increasingly like a no no.

If the deal fails, the Shire share price - ouch, it will be smashed, don't really want to stick around for that tbh.

This is the most BS "takeover" ever.

Shire shareholders deserve so much more.

[nigelpm] 01/6/2018 08:28

More likely that selling reflects this weary selling up an moving on. If anything makes the deal more likely as shareholder register changes.