Senior Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2022 16:44

Maiden purchase so would not take too much notice, however the other 2 recent
BOD buys are adds. Would accord those more weight fwiw.

[gargoyle2] 19/12/2022 16:24

And the chairman King buying 200k a couple of months ago..

[wynmck] 19/12/2022 16:12

2 rns's re increased holdings this month.
Another Dir Buys 10k today following a previous Dir Buy 14783 @1.24 on the 8th

[casholaa] 30/11/2022 18:17

That 2 quid or so was worth more than it is now.

[lindowcross] 30/11/2022 18:17

As previously mentioned if Lone Star had succeeded in their bid, they may well have had a 3-5 year estimate for improving the company's profitability. Perhaps also they were betting that global issues of war, supply-chain issues, Covid and so on would have abated during that period. If so this feasibly could trigger the civil aerospace boom mentioned at 3364 above. At which point Lone Star would hope to sell for more than 200p. Why else would they have bid at the level they did?

Of course this begs the question of whether the current management can do better than whatever Lone Star were planning but nevertheless I'm feeling sanguine about my holding because my time scales and hopes align with those I believe Lone Star would have had.

[disc0dave45] 30/11/2022 18:16

Bank of America raises Senior price target to 120 (114) pence - 'underperform'

[gargoyle2] 30/11/2022 08:32

I wonder how the SNR shareholders, who allegedly agreed with management that last year's 200p bid was a bit cheeky, are feeling now.

[essentialinvestor] 29/11/2022 14:08

That is a rather optimistic take!!.

£1.90 may realistically require another bid, unless civil aerospace booms.


SNR ran in to selling pressure just under £1.25. £1.15-£1.25 appears the range atm.

[lindowcross] 29/11/2022 13:34

From Citywire today:

Senior acquisition will deliver growth, says Jefferies
Jefferies is backing the latest acquisition from engineering group Senior (SNR), which it believes will provide top and bottom-line growth.

Analyst Andy Douglas reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 190p on the stock, which softened 0.5p to 122.3p.

The group has snapped up Spencer Aerospace, which Douglas said ‘will be a good acquisition’ and ‘enhances Senior’s fluid conveyance capabilities’.

‘Spencer is a leading manufacturer of highly engineered, high pressure, hydraulic fluid fittings for the commercial and military aerospace end markets,’ he said.

‘Integration plans are well-defined and management is now focusing on delivering on the growth opportunities that exist, and we believe that under Senior’s ownership, Spencer will deliver attractive top and bottom-line growth.’

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 18:33

Berenberg cuts to 140p (150} hold

[essentialinvestor] 23/11/2022 16:18

Making some headway.

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2022 15:20

Greeting a bit of attention today

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 19:13

If any of you guys or otherwise have a view on IMI, OXIG or CHG,
please post on their respective boards.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 18:09

Thanks Elsa"So an increase in the tax charge is not that material if the accounting profits are small"Yep, keep the profits low so any tax rise is only marginal impact to the bottom line! - not really what I look for in an investment, likewise as posted by imastu their cash flow has been at this level for years, a positive but again not something that persuades me that this is value.All the best

[elsa7878] 16/11/2022 17:18

disc0dave4516 Nov '22 - 14:47 - 3348 of 3355

And for the UK their rate will increase from April 2023 and this will increase their overall effective tax rate.
Think I get where you are coming from but cash flow generation doesn’t determine the percentage rate of tax, yes the sum to be taxed but not the rate….unless I’ve completely misunderstood.

No you're definitely not wrong! All I'm saying is that as long as their capex is running at much lower than the depreciation charge (today approx half) then their free cashflow is much higher than their stated PAT. So an increase in the tax charge is not that material if the accounting profits are small. The question is whether capex is being deliberating suppressed to massage the cashflow or whether this is the new normal and reflects a business that is still operating at over 20% below it's 2019 revenue level and does not need >£50 million pa capex.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 17:14

Fair point gargoyle but they didn't start of at 200p but yes they saw value.....doesn't mean they were right though either!.First bought these back in July 2012 on a forward PE of 11x, if this was the case now I'd buy again, but 17x is too pricey IMO.Do hope it prospers, all the best.

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 17:12

King now holds a reasonable amount, if
someone came a knocking again it may be
more difficult to fend off. Let's see.

[carpingtris] 16/11/2022 17:00

My Avg. here is 152p so £2 a share would suit me right now, lol

I held these years ago ~70p back then but then moved on and then re-brought years later.. this time paying much more.

Should have just held and saved the faff.

[gargoyle2] 16/11/2022 16:44

A lot of pessimism here, considering that Lone Star saw value at £2 quid a year ago and the business is now in much better shape than then. And directors have been buying at just below the current level. I'm long though, so another optimistic hat!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/11/2022 16:11

Someone on here told me recently I was taking too short term a view when I highlighted flat Free Cash Flow every year since 2009...




Numbers for FCF have declined since I last did this in 2017 (and you were following the discussion...):

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2022 16:07

I've know Senior for nearly 30 years (a tad depressing!)
from memory participated in the Flexonics RI, which would have been
circa 1993.

As Simon mentions they've not exactly blown the lights out on a longer
term view and that's probably being too kind.

Possibly worth more to someone else, particularly with GBP v USD and a good
% of their revenues earned ex outside UK.
Pension scheme now fully funded, net debt has been significantly reduced with
hopefully a strong recovery in their core markets to come - that's with my optimistic hat on!.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 15:57

EI, not on a fence think that's obvious lol :)Good luck then and do hope they hit forecasts.......guess your doubts here have been completely eradicated by the thought of no more pension deficit contributions - even when interest rates normalise!.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 14:47

And for the UK their rate will increase from April 2023 and this will increase their overall effective tax rate.Think I get where you are coming from but cash flow generation doesn't determine the percentage rate of tax, yes the sum to be taxed but not the rate....unless I've completely misunderstood.

[elsa7878] 16/11/2022 14:25

You need to look at the free cashflow and not the P&L.

They depreciate to the value of approx £45-50 million a year but their capex spend is only £20-25 million. Not 100% sure on those figures but it is something in that area.

So the P&L does not reflect the underlying cash generation and keeps the tax payable very low.