Senior Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 24/11/2021 15:02

If a bidder did want another pop at Senior, around now
may be an apt time.

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2021 22:25

Warning from Rotork today - supply chain issues worsening.


Would be very surprised if SNR traded close to pre bid levels given
the gradual improvement in civil aerospace markets.

[castleford tiger] 18/11/2021 22:20

I think it’s time to buy not sell

[archy147] 17/11/2021 21:49

What do we think guys, is it time to reduce holdings here? As mentioned, a slide back to the pre bid price kind of feels inevitable and is already well under way.

I note my other engineering hold, RCDO had been going in the opposite direction (up) recently, so supply chain problems not doing them any harm.

Also, compare RCDO to their pre-COVID price and they’re still a long way behind. SNR on the other hand are pretty close to theirs.

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2021 17:53

Read through the CMS presentation slides
and from the look of some of the components Senior manufacture,
logistic and supply chain delays may be the primary factor
weighing on the share price currently?.

Some of their products are very bulky and
if potentially stuck in transit somewhere ..etc.

Semiconductor shortages also impacting their land vehicle business.


That is my take fwiw, as always dyor.

[castleford tiger] 12/11/2021 11:02

145.5 for even more

I must be mad

tiger

[gargoyle2] 11/11/2021 17:25

A better day today. Hoping that the price has bottommed here.

[professor john koestler] 11/11/2021 10:27

The share price was always going to retreat back to where it was pre bid.

[gargoyle2] 11/11/2021 10:12

Thanks Tiger! I felt sure your number must be incorrect. Also confident that a bdder may return. Lone Star can do so after around 24 December, if I recall correctly, although they can bid before then with the board's approval.

[castleford tiger] 11/11/2021 09:50

sorry Gargoyle
You are correct

In my haste to put the message on and failing to read it back I hold 575k shares currently with redmayne in my trading account.
I feel sure a bidder may well return and the BOD will struggle to bat it away unless they get the price ahead of the 200p
tiger

ps I will continue to add should the price slip any further

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 22:17

lol, that's a point!!.

[gargoyle2] 10/11/2021 22:07

I watched it live at the time. The main aim was to showcase the company's thermal management and fluid conveyance technology, which is going to drive shareholder returns (and, in particular, the 13.5% ROCE target) over the medium term. The main thrust seemed to be that the technology was highly relevant to a low carbon world, i.e. low carbon technologies (hydrogen, EVs, etc) also need cooling and fluid management systems. I didn't see anything unhelpful in it, although nothing wildly exciting either. In any event, it promted a fairly quick downgrade from Barclays and a 15%+ slide in the share price.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 21:53

I am going to try and plough through more of the CMS presentation tonight
to see if I can glean anything.

But as someone once said, a capital markets day is a bit like marking your own homework.

[archy147] 10/11/2021 21:31

There’s no doubt about it, we got stitched by the BOD, who can only have had their best own interests in mind at the time they rejected the offer. They certainly weren’t acting in ours ( a question I raised at the time).

Offloaded some at 177p after the offer, obviously wish I’d disposed of the lot now.

[gargoyle2] 10/11/2021 15:52

Tiger, your previous posts indicate that you had 275k shares on 9 Sep, and then were adding throughout September (20th), October (13th - 50k) and November (1st - 60k, 5th, 9th and 10th). Are you sure you haven't missed a 1 off the front of that 185k figure? :) Or did you sell down some along the way? I have a fairly large position here, but really should have taken some off the table around the bid time, with hindsight. Thanks.

[castleford tiger] 10/11/2021 15:00

Essential

I sold 600k of HSP at the almost top as my holding was top heavy.
I posted it on HSP at the time.
I have 185000 senior now and will continue to buy at what I think is a very cheap price.

The BOD will come good.

Mr King I know and he is a very clever man.
Ex BAE systems

Tiger

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 13:02

I know Senior back from the Flexonics purchase in the early 90's,
but can only value it on a future earnings multiple which is significantly
above levels it has generally sold on.

In any case luck to holders and if anyone with an understanding of this area
could comment would be much appreciated.

[professor john koestler] 10/11/2021 12:58

I'm not really in a position to comment on the quality of their engineering vs others, sorry. :(

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 12:52

John, wondering what the attraction is that others see, how good is the Senior
tech.


Tiger appears to keep buying, perhaps he's discovered a magic money tree in his
back garden, but what posters that are bullish fail to do is make a cogent buy case.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 12:39

YoU must be on the BOD at this point.

[castleford tiger] 10/11/2021 12:29

bought more this time under 1.48

[pursia] 10/11/2021 12:05

Looking to add to holdings with purchase at right price - judging that I feel requires crystal ball on near time future moves(especially in production rather than profit) on aerospace manufacturers and Oil/Gas plc's. In essence is the growth there going to ratchet up? I feel it will but C19 Cop26 ESG pressures and fear over interest rate moves (inflation is here and growing) are all headwinds. So I'm still expecting further share price declines but toe dipping time is near!

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 11:33

Yup, I watched some of the CMS presentation, but as not from an engineering
background unsure just how good, or otherwise, their tech is.

[gargoyle2] 10/11/2021 11:22

I don't think Lone Star saw any particular synergies with any existing business. You're right, does look pricey, but with the (relatively new, I think) focus on 'energy transation technology', maybe it can warrant a higher multiple?

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 11:13

Multiple on well over 20 X FY 23.

Yet no one mentions that, is this a bargain?.

Yes it's worth more to someone else if there are synergy benefits
with an existing business, scope for Central cost savings etc,


Bought a small amount back but unless it's bid for again don't expect fireworks
and there could be downside.