Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[rampair] 09/2/2018 15:31

Whatever you think of this outfit, Currently it’s shifting a lot of free cash flow.
De bottle necked and starting Niger....
Last year 40p on Niger alone, now with a targeted 30k boed is, frankly excellent

100%&98% uptime is clearly some hard work going in to seven .presumably to keep their employment.

I think it’s a compelling proposition.

R.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2018 12:15

Andrew Knott can’t even organise the placing of a video on the website when he says it will appear.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2018 12:14

I’m sitting comfortably.

[honestmarty] 09/2/2018 12:13

Seriously, how is this down?

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2018 12:01

Yes it is.

Buffy

[ifthecapfits] 09/2/2018 11:54

ps charts not working a real pain in the butt.

[ifthecapfits] 09/2/2018 11:54

Its an old Vid - isn't it?

[nen2319] 09/2/2018 11:46

I just watched it. It’s on the front page. Try this. hxxp://www.savannah-petroleum.com/en/index.php

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2018 11:34

Someone on LSE claims it's on the website, but I can only see the Jan presentation.

Buffy

[dorset64] 09/2/2018 11:27

All coming together nicely and look forward to watching the new corporate video and some decent numbers to Zengas.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2018 10:26

Let’s see if the video, when it appears, confirms any hard dates for the Niger drilling. I imagine it won’t of course, or they would have put that in an RNS.

Buffy

[thomasthetank1] 09/2/2018 09:44

All - please see below for Mirabaud's comment on Savannah's announcement this morning.

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) issued an encouraging production update this morning, coinciding with settlement of December’s US$125m equity placing. The update shows production building strongly from its two producing fields, rising from an average of 14.2 kboepd (net) in November to 20.7 kboepd in February to date, and with impressive uptime rates of 100% (Uquo) and 98% (Stubb Creek), respectively. Significantly, this already puts Savannah in line with full year guidance of >20 kboepd, and with production still ramping up, sets the company on course to exceed expectations. The driver for the increased volumes has been the implementation of the World Bank guarantee on sales to the Calabar power station, which was signed at the end of September last year. The guarantee protects against default on the c.130 mmscf/d (22 kboepd) gas sales agreement (Savannah’s biggest contract), and is clearly providing the comfort to ramp up volumes. Meanwhile, the RNS includes a brief comment on the drilling programme in Niger, which is still on course to commence this quarter. The first well, Bushiya, is worth 11p/shr on our numbers (unrisked), but, more significantly, has the potential to significantly de-risk dozens of follow-on targets.

[honestmarty] 09/2/2018 09:13

Looking good here.
AK is a man with a plan, and now cashed up too.

[zengas] 09/2/2018 09:00

Stubb Creek gross oil was up to 2.7k (500 bopd net).
Uquo gross oil was 200 bopd (200 bopd net).

December 2017
"Near-term operational plans at the field include the completion of the Uquo-9 oil well"

"It is anticipated that in 2018 that the existing Stubb Creek EPF will be debottlenecked, to increase oil production capacity to circa 5 kbopd."

We might hear something on the marginal field bid.

With spud in Niger fairly soon, there should be lots of newsflow over the year on a number of fronts.

[trulyscrumptious] 09/2/2018 08:56

Things are looking very positive here.
---------------------------------------
Savannah Petroleum said production at its so-called Seven Assets in February had continued to increase, with month-to-date net average production of 20.7k barrels of oil equivalent per day.

'The strong production performance seen by the Seven Assets over the course of the past three months is highly encouraging for the 2018 outlook,' chief executive Andrew Knott said.

'Following the completion of our placing, Savannah is now well positioned to deliver further growth in both Niger and Nigeria.'

'In the first quarter of 2018 we expect to spud the first well in our potentially transformational multi-well drilling campaign in Niger, Bushiya.'

'We continue to target completion of the Seven Transaction in April, and look forward to providing further updates in due course.'

[zengas] 09/2/2018 08:00

Graph shows production to increase to 30,000 boepd for next year from the 2 fields. That could be a 50%+ increase in cash flow.

[rampair] 09/2/2018 07:58

Good income from that. Excellent RNS.Also Miton increase stake.

R.

[zengas] 09/2/2018 07:13

Very good update - now way over the targeted 20k boepd for 2018 in just the 2nd week of February.

Production already increased to a net 20,700 boepd compared to 14k at the time of acquisition.

"Production levels at the Seven Assets in February have continued to strongly increase, with month to date average production being 25.7 kboepd gross and 20.7 kboepd net."

[zengas] 07/2/2018 15:09

Whether 28p or 42p there is still an extensive prize on offer for Niger alone and they intend to grow the Nigerian assets in their own right. This is extensively institutionally backed.

Re No 6 below on a 41% success rate = £4.9 billion at $3/b or using the broker note of $4.60/b gives £7.5 billion. Get just 10-20% success and it's £1.25 -£2.5 billion at $3/b or £1.8-£3.75b at the brokers use of $4.60/barrel on the risked case.

Even with the additional $30m from the proposed subscription the upside is huge.

When i got in here first the assets offerred just 545 mmbls (and before government take) so i don't feel in anyway hard done by other than having to deal with the delays. Hopefully with the strategic partner, other assets may be added and contribute to a seperate chain of growth.

Post 1954

"With the Niger CPR figures in front of us this is one of the biggest value plays on offer.

1. Mirabauds note on Savp is using $4.60/bl for Niger. (oil now in the upper $60s/bl)

2. The mid - high case *unrisked* RECOVERABLE target is 6.9 - 10.3 billion bls oil.

3. The success case is risked at 41% ie 2.821 bls mid - 4.2 billion bls high case recoverable.

4. Becomes *net* risked 2.2 - 3.3 billion bls recoverable after govt take (ie after some 59% failure rate not per well, but across combination of all target zones).

5. If Mirabauds figure were applied to net risked recoverable, target value becomes £7.5 billion mid to £11 billion high case.

6. Using $3/bl gives £4.9 billion risked value target on a 41% success rate mid case (versus $4.60/bl used by Mirabaud which is £7.5 billion of value).

"Estimates of reservoir properties have been checked by CGG, and these are thought to be reasonable or slightly conservative"

R3 East prospects

"All the prospects identified in the area are clearly within the oil discovery trend with discoveries to the northwest and to the southeast". "

[kirkuk] 07/2/2018 14:31

Are you surprised Buffy.

AK and his colleagues must be sick to the back teeth of wet, anxious
shareholders continually emailing requesting details and timelines. Yet they were aware or should have known that the details are confidential and could not be
given out.

An equivalent of "Are we there yet?".....continuously!!!

Even now there are parties still criticizing which seems to me wanting
to have someone to blame for their own investment decisions. An attitude
that is not restricted to investing in shares I'm afraid!!

If shareholders can't stand the heat in this game get out of the kitchen and
back to the sandpit with a bucket and spade.

[dorset64] 07/2/2018 14:24

LH sorry to be harsh fella but I don't buy your point. I and a few other posters offered you the chance to sell your holding for a price to be agreed between us, but you never even had the decency to reply to my mails let alone anyone else'.

The price agreed say, some 6 months ago would had probably been a tad higher than its been of late so for you to moan about the current share price when you could had been out months ago, and bought other shares with the cash, falls on deaf ears I'm afraid.

You decided not to sell, it was your choice so stop moaning about today's prices. If you still don't like it, take the hit & make it back elsewhere.

[buffythebuffoon] 07/2/2018 14:17

I agree with pretty much all of that lh, with the exception that someone might rightfully point out that while there is a Pavlovian response to hearing someone discussing oil assets in Nigeria, Niger is in many ways every bit as bad.

Buffy

[lithological heterogeneities] 07/2/2018 14:12

Yes,it's ok if you invest NOW at 28p-29p obviously.

But when you put a substantial amount in at 40p - 42p as they were beginning the Niger drilling within weeks then get suspended for 9 - 10 months,end up buying a stake in a country that you would never invest in (I do not invest in anything Nigerian oil related) then come back at 28p and sit there for months then it IS a disaster.

If you buy now for the first time and you are happy buying a stake in a Nigerian oil company (knowing that you were buying a Nigerian oil company stake unlike before) that basically nearly went bust because of the problems in Nigeria then yes,it might be OK for you.

[buffythebuffoon] 07/2/2018 14:04

Zengas, you’ve sort of hit the nail on the head there perhaps without intending to.

(a) What exactly is near term?
(b) We’d all like to think the wheels would have been put in motion, and that’s what a reasonable person would expect as good practice.

The thing is, this CEO is never straightforward in his actions, and I get the impression we’ll get no such confirmation this month.

When he presents, I get the feeling we are tolerated rather than welcomed.

Buffy