Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bushranger] 03/1/2018 12:13

diversified - You would think II wouldn't sell at a loss so soon but stranger things happen. I would be more concerned with all the extra shares this deal is going to give instead of cash to the 7e parties. Surely they may just see this as an alternate payment to cash and their exit out of what for them is a failed investment and sell off the millions of shares they will hold.

[lithological heterogeneities] 03/1/2018 11:26

AK should resign/be sacked.

[ifthecapfits] 03/1/2018 10:17

Seems to me that most look to be sitting tight for drilling.

[lithological heterogeneities] 03/1/2018 07:46

No turkeys involved at all.The deal will go through due to institutional support.My vote is a protest vote and something I must do.

[bushman1] 03/1/2018 07:36

LH. Turkey/Christmas/Voting for ... Follow Mirabaud

[lithological heterogeneities] 03/1/2018 04:29

I will be voting NO to this deal.

[diversification] 02/1/2018 18:31

Have you sold yet LH?

[diversification] 02/1/2018 15:39

Dorset - in this instance the shares were suspended during the placing and are subsequently lower than placing price at present. To pre-sell would have no advantage other than an immediate loss surely?

[dorset64] 02/1/2018 14:43

Zengas, the only counter I would make to your post is that in most cases, granted not all of them, but in most cases any insti already on board prior to a fund raising would normally pre-sale their allocation at a far higher price than those they receive in the placing.

Time will tell if the same happens here as, if none has been pre-sold then each one of those instill will have to make a holding announcement whereas, if they did pre-sell, they will not have to as they will remain with roughly the same % of shares as before.

[zengas] 29/12/2017 17:20

Six (6) of the original existing institutional shareholders in the company intend to support the transaction by subscribing for over 116m shares ie £40m/$55m or nearly half of the $125m.

Standard life increasing from 27.2m to 44.346m
Fidelity 26.841m - 39.144m
Capital Group 21.968m - 66.934m.
Legal & Gen 18.16m - 28.16m.
Henderson 13.571m - 42.83m.
Miton Asset Mgnt 5.98m* - 42.857m.

New additional investors -
VR Global 97.3m.
Ashmore 58.576m.
IFC (part of World Bank) 38.972m.

Someone mentioned elsewhere that the company could go bust if the deal did not go through. I have always thought that totally nonsensical given institutional support.

On the balance of risk and on balance of probabilities to risk, I beleive that the same institutions would equally support funding of Niger on its own in the absence of any transaction.

Think about this - If these 6 existing institutions were unhappy with Nigeria or with management, then I doubt they would be supporting the transaction to the degree that they intend to do or otherwise they would be voting against it to block it.

In addition the previous fundraisings were 56p ($50m) and 2 x 38p ($36m & $40m). Over the history of Savp I have kept an eye on the average placings which totalled £83.1m. This amounted to 194m shares. The average cost was 42.8p. With these same institutions adding and proposing to add post 1st tranche at 35p - the average for 5 of those institutions is still around 38p.

Sure there will be the average PI who will not support it simply because of the country but on it's own it still offers upside in it's own right as any country does and any cash generation is a platform to greater and better things ie Niger and further asset acquisitions (M/field round this coming quarter?) What if a further field or two is added with existing production and cash flow ? Surely that also would or could go to addressing Niger ramp-up if early oil discovered ?

[buffythebuffoon] 29/12/2017 13:52

lh, you seem to have taken some positivity pills today....

I would have thought you’d want AK to have a happy 2018.

Buffy

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 11:59

SOME FIGS (updated with correct post deal shares in issue of 895.7m):

At the end of this RTO , SAVP will have 895,722,095 Ordinary Shares in issue.
At 35p this will give a new Mkt Cap of £313.5m.

Mirabaud Note - 22.12.17 (posted by thomasthetank1)

"We have yet to run our numbers, but at today’s share price the company is fully supported by its Nigerian business, which the CPR values at US$663m (2P reserves + 20% stake in Accugas) implying a discount of ~62%. At these levels investors are gaining free exposure not only to the development upside potential in Nigeria but also to exploration in Niger. The three well programme expected to start in January will target aggregate mean prospective resources of 110 mmbbls worth US$4.6/boe implying ~US$500m of unrisked value net to Savannah, with individual chances of success of at least 75%. We see the latest transaction as truly transformational for the company ahead of what is setting up to be an exciting 2018 with plenty of exploration driven catalysts."

Using the latest Mirabaud note figs then:

SHARES IN ISSUE (Post deal completion) = 895.7m
SAVP Mkt Cap = £313.5m at 35p/share.
CPR = £492m (US$663m)or 55p/share.
NIGER 3 WELL PROGRAMME (unrisked value net) = £371m (US£500m) or 41.5p/share.

From Dec 17 Placing Document:

DIVIDEND = £9.25m/year (US$12.5million)/year or 1p/year .
NET FREE CASHFLOW = £65m/year ($88m/year) or 7.25p/year
(From more than 20,000 kboepd net production from Nigeria assets)

Note : Using 1 GBP = 1.35144 USD on 29.12.17.


The General Meeting will be held at 3.00 p.m. on 8 January 2018 at the Hilton London Canary Wharf, Marsh Wall, London E14 9SH.
Andrew Knott (CEO): "We look forward to providing our shareholders with a detailed update presentation at our upcoming general meeting, as well as to the commencement of our drilling operations in Niger, and welcome the attendance of our shareholders to hear about the Agreed Transaction and Savannah's plans for 2018 and beyond."

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 11:58

hi all,

rushed earlier figs as was off out the door to work then realised I used post first tranche shares in issue but too late to correct.

back home for lunch so just re-did figs based upon the correct 895.7m shares in issue post deal and amended posts.

back to work and a Happy New Year to all...except Andrew Knott.

[itsriskythat] 29/12/2017 10:23

Looks to me like they were under pressure to lift the suspension to trading, despite all of the creditors having not yet agreed to the transaction?

5. Ongoing Negotiations

With regards to the Accugas IV Facility Agreement, the WCF Agreement, the DSA Facility Agreement and the Promissory Note, Savannah and the relevant creditors are at an advanced stage of negotiations to agree non-binding term sheets; however, formal approvals are still outstanding.

1.2 Implementation of the Transaction requires the cooperation of certain other creditors of the Seven Group

With regards to the Accugas IV Facility Agreement, the WCF Agreement, the DSA Facility Agreement and the Promissory Note, Savannah and the relevant creditors are at an advanced stage of negotiations to agree non-binding term sheets; however, formal approvals are still outstanding. There can be no assurance that the Company will be able to agree definitive agreements with such counter-parties and, to the extent this does not occur, Completion will not take place.

[gersemi] 29/12/2017 10:06

2 v 1 (10k v 5k) (28.50 v 29)

30 (WINS)
32 (SING)

depth-

30K V 25K

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:30

Mount Teide 28 Dec '17 - 14:18 - 1976 of 1994
L2: 1 v 1 / 27.5p v 27.75p.
Next MM's on the offer: 2 @32p, 1 @34.55, 1 @36.7p and 1 @37p !

Todays L2 would be very interesting if you are still around MT?

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:20

Using the latest Mirabaud note figs then:

SHARES IN ISSUE (Post deal completion) = 895.7m
SAVP Mkt Cap = £313.5m at 35p/share
CPR = £492m (US$663m)or 55p/share.
NIGER 3 WELL PROGRAMME (unrisked value net) = £371m (US£500m) or 41.5p/share.

From Dec 17 Placing Document:

DIVIDEND = £9.25m/year (US$12.5million)/year or 1p/year .
NET FREE CASHFLOW = £65m/year ($88m/year/year) or 7.25p/year
(From more than 20,000 kboepd net production from Nigeria assets)

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:18

The General Meeting will be held at 3.00 p.m. on 8 January 2018 at the Hilton London Canary Wharf, Marsh Wall, London E14 9SH.

Andrew Knott (CEO): "We look forward to providing our shareholders with a detailed update presentation at our upcoming general meeting, as well as to the commencement of our drilling operations in Niger, and welcome the attendance of our shareholders to hear about the Agreed Transaction and Savannah's plans for 2018 and beyond."

This should recover to 35p by 08 Jan General Meeting in anticipation of a detailed Presentation and imminent Niger 3 well drilling plans targetting mmbbls worth potentially £371m (US£500m) or 41.5p/share and a huge 75% Chance of Success.

Also, the first tranche of shares were placed at 35p yesterday so first obstacle out of the way.

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:10

ZENGAS 27 Dec '17 - 10:33 - 1954 of 1991


With the Niger CPR figures in front of us this is one of the biggest value plays on offer.

1. Mirabauds note on Savp is using $4.60/bl for Niger. (oil now in the upper $60s/bl)

2. The mid - high case *unrisked* RECOVERABLE target is 6.9 - 10.3 billion bls oil.

3. The success case is risked at 41% ie 2.821 bls mid - 4.2 billion bls high case recoverable.

4. Becomes *net* risked 2.2 - 3.3 billion bls recoverable after govt take (ie after some 59% failure rate not per well, but across combination of all target zones).

5. If Mirabauds figure were applied to net risked recoverable, target value becomes £7.5 billion mid to £11 billion high case.

6. Using $3/bl gives £4.9 billion risked value target on a 41% success rate mid case (versus $4.60/bl used by Mirabaud which is £7.5 billion of value).

"Estimates of reservoir properties have been checked by CGG, and these are thought to be reasonable or slightly conservative"

R3 East prospects

"All the prospects identified in the area are clearly within the oil discovery trend with discoveries to the northwest and to the southeast".

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:09

thomasthetank1 22 Dec '17 - 12:46 - 1937 of 1990

Mirabaud note on SAVP this morning.

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has resumed trading this morning having agreed a transformational reverse takeover of large parts of Seven Energy, a distressed private Nigerian firm, which will see the company acquire Seven’s substantial integrated gas business in the southeast of the Niger Delta. Under the deal terms, Savannah will buy the upstream assets outright and team up with private equity on the midstream assets, retaining a carried minority interest. The result is an enlarged E&P company with a diversified asset portfolio, substantial free cash flow and minimal gearing. In our opinion, this opportunistic acquisition is highly accretive for Savannah shareholders, with a pay-back of ~3 years and a purchase price equivalent to just US$2.9/boe (EV/2P) and around 35% of invested capital.

The Seven transaction marks an acceleration of Savannah’s diversification strategy and follows last year’s entry into Nigeria through an exploration tie-up with the Government. It fundamentally changes the shape of the business, adding material production and reserves to Savannah’s exciting but earlier stage exploration assets in Niger. The enlarged company will rank alongside London’s top listed oil & gas producers, boasting a high quality, stable earnings stream, fully-funded near-term exploration drilling and a progressive dividend policy (yielding 3.2% FY18). Given the compelling acquisition terms and clear strategic merits, we believe the transaction is a game changer for Savannah.

We have yet to run our numbers, but at today’s share price the company is fully supported by its Nigerian business, which the CPR values at US$663m (2P reserves + 20% stake in Accugas) implying a discount of ~62%. At these levels investors are gaining free exposure not only to the development upside potential in Nigeria but also to exploration in Niger. The three well programme expected to start in January will target aggregate mean prospective resources of 110 mmbbls worth US$4.6/boe implying ~US$500m of unrisked value net to Savannah, with individual chances of success of at least 75%. We see the latest transaction as truly transformational for the company ahead of what is setting up to be an exciting 2018 with plenty of exploration driven catalysts.

[lithological heterogeneities] 29/12/2017 09:05

SOME FIGS:

At the end of this RTO , SAVP will have 895,722,095 Ordinary Shares in issue.
At 35p this will give a new Mkt Cap of £313.5m.

Mirabaud Note - 22.12.17 (posted by thomasthetank1)

"We have yet to run our numbers, but at today’s share price the company is fully supported by its Nigerian business, which the CPR values at US$663m (2P reserves + 20% stake in Accugas) implying a discount of ~62%. At these levels investors are gaining free exposure not only to the development upside potential in Nigeria but also to exploration in Niger. The three well programme expected to start in January will target aggregate mean prospective resources of 110 mmbbls worth US$4.6/boe implying ~US$500m of unrisked value net to Savannah, with individual chances of success of at least 75%. We see the latest transaction as truly transformational for the company ahead of what is setting up to be an exciting 2018 with plenty of exploration driven catalysts."

Using the latest Mirabaud note figs then:

SAVP Mkt Cap = £313.5m at 35p/share.
CPR = £492m (US$663m)or 55p/share.
NIGER 3 WELL PROGRAMME (unrisked value net) = £371m (US£500m) or 41.5p/share.

From Dec 17 Placing Document:

DIVIDEND = £9.25m/year (US$12.5million)/year or 1p/year .
NET FREE CASHFLOW = £65m/year ($88m/year/year) or 7.25p/year
(From more than 20,000 kboepd net production from Nigeria assets)

The General Meeting will be held at 3.00 p.m. on 8 January 2018 at the Hilton London Canary Wharf, Marsh Wall, London E14 9SH.
Andrew Knott (CEO): "We look forward to providing our shareholders with a detailed update presentation at our upcoming general meeting, as well as to the commencement of our drilling operations in Niger, and welcome the attendance of our shareholders to hear about the Agreed Transaction and Savannah's plans for 2018 and beyond."

[wheniamfree] 28/12/2017 20:38

The shares were issued today i read something on LSE about someone contacting the nomad. If no news assume all is ok was the general response from nomad.

[pembury] 28/12/2017 19:29

1.5m showing @35p