Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petroleum Plc LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 22.95 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
22.60 23.30 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -19.30 -2.35 202
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 0.00 GBX

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Latest News

More Savannah Petroleum News
Savannah Petroleum Takeover Rumours

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Share Charts

1 Year Savannah Petroleum Chart

1 Year Savannah Petroleum Chart

1 Month Savannah Petroleum Chart

1 Month Savannah Petroleum Chart

Intraday Savannah Petroleum Chart

Intraday Savannah Petroleum Chart

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Discussions and Chat

Savannah Petroleum Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
16/9/201907:15◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►4,403
12/9/201907:28Savannah Petroleum Plc719
25/9/201810:07Savannah Petrolium8

Add a New Thread

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Most Recent Trades

No Trades
Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
View all Savannah Petroleum trades in real-time

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
15/9/2019
09:20
Savannah Petroleum Daily Update: Savannah Petroleum Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petroleum was 22.95p.
Savannah Petroleum Plc has a 4 week average price of 16.50p and a 12 week average price of 11.60p.
The 1 year high share price is 35p while the 1 year low share price is currently 11.60p.
There are currently 879,769,427 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 854,308 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petroleum Plc is £201,907,083.50.
29/8/2019
11:38
haideralifool: I want to ask about this from the Hannam note: "On completion of the deal there will be US$20mm of cash in from new shares issued to the SSN holders and US$54mm from sale of 20% of Accugas to AIIM. There will be some cash out relating to taxes due on the transaction and US$20mm to Frontier. SAVP will issue US$37mm of shares on completion (for the SSN and Stubb Creek purchase) at a price based on 5-day VWAP – at the current share price this would be ~160mm shares (current basic shares outstanding of 880mm). SAVP will also take on its 80% share of US$575mm of gross debt relating to Accugas and Uquo." The note was written when the share price was 21.6p If the share price rises between now and deal conclusion the number of shares the SSN holders get will be less than if it falls. So would it be in their interests to short now?
19/8/2019
08:54
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP announcement below. Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced the key news of the receipt of Ministerial consent for its acquisition of Seven Energy. Savannah has received a letter from the Department of Petroleum Resources, stating that President Buhari has signed off on the transfer of the Seven Assets to Savannah, giving the green light for the company to start tying up the final loose ends of the transaction. We understand that the Savannah/Seven deal is the first major transaction to be granted approval by the new Government, speaking volumes of the significance of the deal in Nigeria, and its support at the highest level. Ministerial approval allows Savannah to start the final process of closing the transaction, which will involve legal execution of the transaction completion mechanics which were set out in the Implementation Agreement (i.e. the processes which were legally binding, but conditional on Ministerial Approval). We expect these processes to take a matter of a couple of months to complete, and expect that Savannah will provide updates on any further completion milestones in due course. With the receipt of Ministerial consent, we believe today should mark the start of a re-rating to our fair value target price of 81p/shr. We value Savannah’s Nigeria portfolio alone at 56p/shr (risked), net of debt and other corporate items – this alone is a 4.5x multiple of the current share price. Completion of the deal will also allow for Savannah to recommence its activities in Niger following the Company’s five back-to-back discoveries made last year, with the Amdigh well test first up. The Niger portfolio is worth another 29p/shr (risked) on our numbers, illustrating the scale of upside from today’s levels. As a reminder, we expect completion of the transaction to trigger a cash inflow in the region of US$75m, followed by returns to shareholders commencing next year, either in the form of share buybacks, or a dividend programme.
13/8/2019
11:02
zengas: 1-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p = 131.337 shares in issue. 10-7-15 = $36m at 38p = 175.1m shares in issue. 7-7-16 = $40m at 38p = 273m shares in issue. 22-12-17 = $125m at 35p = 817m shares in issue. 24-1-19 = $23m at 28p = 879m shares in issue. Most if not all of the money has come from institutional investors and for a great number of them, their averages will be much higher than the last funding at 28p. In my opinion most of the bigger subscribers average is closer to 38p - 40p. I haven't seen many institutions leave. Two or so sold down but others took their place. I worked on around 1b shares in issue. If the 7E deal goes ahead as expected $12.5m was intended as a dividend, but in future years with annual free cash flow of up to $150m from Nigeria some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend. $45m at a longer term exch rate of £1/$1.40 is about 3.2p/share ie 10% yield on a share price of 32p or 5% yield on a share price of 64p (excluding anything in Niger). Niger on a billion shares to get a £1-£2 share price target ie $1.4b -$2.8b of value on a similar longer term exch rate of £1/$1.40 would need to realise some 350-700 mmbls at $4/barrel and we've notched up about 50 mmbls already there so far according to the analysts from a total potential of 2.8 billion bls RISKED recoverable (From memory circa 4 billion bls UNRISKED) mid case and plenty to go round even with a farm in partner. If you add the potential from the 2 projects together there's a serious amount of combined upside potential from 12p currently given 7E production/immediate cash flow and substantial low risk Sokor Alternances play in Niger both in dividend and capital growth and that's why imo we havent seen many TR1s because unlike many PIs they can afford to take a longer term view on both sets of assets re risk profile. Unless there's any change to 7E, I still stick with my £2 target. While the delay isn't comfortable to bear and we should be getting on with things it's allowed me to average down in to the mid teens. Nigeria cash flow would be immediate and a high portion of the Niger exploration extremely low risk at 80% COS and as evidenced by the 5 out of 5 discoveries from scratch.
18/7/2019
21:58
gisjob2: The article says he will submit his list hopefully before the recess but doesn't say when it will beconfirmed. Doesn't sound like the SAVP deal will get signed off before Autumn to me. What price SAVP by then ! What a nightmare AK has managed to get us involved with here. Just think what the share price would be if we never got involved in Nigeria and just had the 5 from 5 successful wells in Niger without all the funding issues. I think Nigeria is a great big vanity project for AK who lost site of shareholder value.
03/7/2019
19:09
nen2319: When you're talking about destroying shareholder confidence - is that PIs or institutional ? So taking into account the strong ii “support”; how do you explain a share price drop of over 50%. Someone is selling enough shares to move a 250 million pound company by half? You paint a pretty picture but the share price doesn’t tell lies. Somethings rotten.
24/6/2019
11:28
plentymorefish: So, a share price of 40p two years ago when SAVP announced a transformational deal with regards to 7E - now, 2 years on with an share price of 19p, you'd be happy with a 31p SP?!….it's a funny old game
11/1/2019
08:41
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud - Savannah Petroleum GETTING MORE FOR LESS Following news in December of further positive changes to the Seven Energy transaction we are upgrading numbers on SAVP. Our EBITDA estimates for FY19 & FY20 rise 79% & 81%, respectively, to US$173m & US308m, reflecting SAVP’s enlarged 75% share of cash flows and full consolidation of Seven into SAVP’s financial accounts. In parallel, under the revised structure, our Total NAV increases 24% to 89p/shr, suggesting fair value approaching 3x the current share price. With the Seven deal now in final form and expected to close this quarter, in our opinion, the scene is set for a material re-rating in the near-term. Accordingly, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a refreshed target price of 89p/shr – up from 72p/shr previously. Revised terms deliver control of infrastructure and equity alignment: through a series of deal modifications agreed with PE partner African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM) SAVP has recast the terms of the Seven Energy acquisition. The revised structure will see SAVP acquire an incremental 55% of Accugas and in parallel divest 25% of the Uquo gas field, resulting in SAVP owning 75% of Seven’s midstream (Accugas) and upstream (Uquo gas) units, and AIIM the remaining 25%. Through increased ownership of Accugas (20% to 75%), SAVP gains control of a key piece of regional infrastructure which acts as the gateway to energy hungry gas customers in southeast Nigeria (see Accugas’s pipeline network in map in Figure 4, below). In our view, this is key to capturing the longer term growth opportunity around consolidating stranded gas resources (estimated at >40 tcf in the wider area), tapping into new regional power stations (such as Alaoji) and supplying high-paying industrial customers (currently burning diesel for an equivalent cost of >US$10/mcf – versus Accugas’s current weighted average sales price of US$3.5/mcf). Furthermore, equity alignment across Seven’s integrated gas business ensures the wider operation can be run as efficiently as possible. AIIM cash consideration boosts liquidity and supports our wider valuation case: in consideration for its 25% stake in Seven’s Uquo and Accugas assets, AIIM has agreed to pay SAVP US$70m in cash on deal completion. This provides SAVP with a fresh source of liquidity coming out of the deal, bolstering the group’s finances and providing growth capital for Nigeria and/or Niger. Furthermore, by paying US$70m for 25%, AIIM has in effect franked the value of SAVP’s Accugas and Uquo stakes at US$280m/21p (including US$70m of cash receipts). This compares to SAVP’s current share price of 31.5p – implying little value for the Stubb Creek field (in Nigeria) or the potential in Niger. To put this in perspective, our aggregate NAV for the Niger portfolio and Stubb Creek field stands at 36p risked.
23/12/2018
12:48
zengas: Re Fridays RNS and the $70m cash payment to Savp ($54m + $16m) by Africa Investment Managers. It's through the sale of an interest in Uquo to AIIM and not a placing of shares to them in Savp plc which i miss read. I was working on the basis of last Decembers deal document which would have seen circa 1145m shares in issue including warrants. Currently 817m shares in issue. Six and a half weeks left for 133m instituional warrants to expire at 35p exercise price. Warrants would generate £46.5m/$58.5m (£1/$1.26) and equal 950m shares in issue some 200m less than the 1145m originally envisaged. If bulk of those warrants not taken up would mean we are still around the 817m shares in issue. Transaction closure would see $115m/yr this current year 2019 from Nigeria ie almost $10m month free cash flow (not counting early production scheme from Niger Q2/19). Nigeria free cash flow to $153m/yr in 12+ months time = almost $13m/month + Niger at 4-5 X increase. $70m of near immediate cash ($54m+$16m) re 25% Uquo sale to AIIM. $50m draw down facility available from Geneva based funder. $10m monthly free cash from Nigeria. Warrants = more cash but more shares if exercised (ie upside of circa max $58.5m additional cash + 133m shares = 950m total shares). So going forward = about $120m of cash + $10m/month ie $240m free cash over the next 12 months and surely enough to put a huge future dent in Niger drilling. This is without any allowance of any Niger farmout, or Niger production or warrant exercise. Given the Niger target of 2.8 billion bls risked recoverable @ $4/b in the ground, a success on under 20% of that - ie 500m bls would mean a share price target for Niger alone of 188p (817m shares) or 162p (950m shares) using an exchange rate of £1 = US$1.30. The company is using a figure of $6/barrel (I've used $4/b) so those share price targets could be 25% more at $5/b and 50% more at $6/b . Even with a farmout there is some serious headroom for success based on the 2.8 billion barrel risked number (The unrisked numbers being much higher). Also where else do you get exploration potential with 80% COS (100% so far). The Nigeria business of both up and downstream should be worth 100p in its own right as it evolves, given the cash flow, reserves, distribution business etc and cost for any competitor to develop a similar foot print. Previously i was using 200p combined for moderate success, so now beleive 250p is more realistic considering all of the factors above. During these renegotiations, we've seen institutions adding (where the sales came from is anyones guess - forward selling of some minorities/parties to the transaction?). It's also one of the most heavily invested companies by a wide range of institutions. Once the transaction is concluded, hopefully the potential will transform into a future 10 bag opportunity and it's certainly got the forward cash and assets to do so as well as the promise of a $12.5m 2019 dividend, which should be even better on less shares in issue and favouable exchange rate.
24/9/2018
15:40
bushman1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (im plying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
24/9/2018
13:10
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (implying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
Savannah Petroleum share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
Your Recent History
LSE
SAVP
Savannah P..
Register now to watch these stocks streaming on the ADVFN Monitor.

Monitor lets you view up to 110 of your favourite stocks at once and is completely free to use.

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

P: V: D:20190916 06:15:25