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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petroleum Plc LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 8.90 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
8.16 8.98
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -19.30 -2.35 78
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 8.90 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/4/202010:11◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►5,649
07/4/202012:14Savannah Petroleum Plc823
25/9/201810:07Savannah Petrolium8

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DateSubject
22/9/2020
09:20
Savannah Petroleum Daily Update: Savannah Petroleum Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petroleum was 8.90p.
Savannah Petroleum Plc has a 4 week average price of 0p and a 12 week average price of 0p.
The 1 year high share price is 28.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 6p.
There are currently 879,769,427 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 0 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petroleum Plc is £78,299,479.
16/4/2020
11:53
zengas: Well the share price has fallen from 35p to which we were told was a value enhancing deal for all shareholders and would underpin/derisk us through guaranteed gas revenues plus any new customers and less dependent on oil. My point is - how in the face of such share price destruction/performance can any further bonus be paid if the remuneration committee are reading this ? Also the $5m loan which was to be settled around 17th Jan 2020 was not mentioned again in any shape or form until 6th March and is extended to 6th June. If bonuses weren't handed out so quickly until the company actually delivers, there would have been less need for most of that $5m in the first place. My comments then on 15th Jan 2020 in which the share price has fallen from 22p by a further 66% in that time to 7.5p and which can't all be blamed on the CV-19 outbreak. Therefore any blame attached to the CV-19 outbreak by the CEO/Chairman does not address the dire performance prior to this and the lack of delivery on past guidance. AK: "Our focus in Niger in 2019 will be on testing the Amdigh-1 discovery, delivering first oil from our R3 East EPS, and commencing a further exploration programme in the second half of the year, potentially with a partner. We expect this process to be one that adds significant value for all of our stakeholders". 'Lets hope any bonuses under consideration if any for 2019 are suspended or cancelled and that the remuneration committee wake up to the fact that nothing has been delivered at any point since listing in terms of any growth for shareholders. Some of those dozy old compliant codgers should consider this fact when they're patting each other on the back about jobs supposedly well done and see that the company actions have repeatedly sent the share price south with every passing year. Meanwhile let's see if the $5m short term loan is repaid in cash or by shares. CEO Pay/bonuses y/e 2014 paid $352k y/e 2015 paid $671k y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus) Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus) y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus). y/e 2019 to be announced In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m while the share price has been decimated Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful.' Pay cuts/ staff reductions should be on the cards if there has been no improvement in outlook. (jotoha2 that's not for your benefit as you've contributed sweet FA since you graced the thread).
19/2/2020
12:28
canigou2: I don't have to look, I do not control the share price. The performance since the RTO is shown in the share price. It is the BOD's job to support the share price, by providing this information in a timely and clear manner, so the market understands without any ambiguities. They are not doing their job well. This needs to change!
08/2/2020
11:20
zengas: As i've said before i await to see the update for Niger and agree it's been painfully slow. What's keeping me in is that when they took the assets on, they've certainly been proved 100% correct on the high chance of success so i see no reason why this can't be magnified many times over given the close proximity and analogous nature of the prospects yet to drill. I never expected to see every single one drilled and with a target of some 2.8 billion bls of already risked recoverable oil, i've felt that getting just 18% of that net to Savp at the lower $4 per/b estimate would be enough to create $2b worth of value for Savp especially with a major pipeline on the horizon as well as domestic supply. On the other hand to get such a comprehensive and reworked improved Nigerian deal through with so many parties concerned imo was no mean feat. So i personally feel that deserves credit and if he/Savp can do that then imo there's hope for future and less complicated deals in continuing to grow the company. The first announcement of what i hope are many new customer deals has started to filter through already and they beleive the capacity of the gas processing facilities will be fully utilised by the end of the year. As regards not having hands on O&G experience i'll agree but he certainly has a good team around him and they used the best legal entities (one sits on the board) in dd and he's also been able to bring on board many top blue chip investors/world bank arm etc to invest in Savp as against many CEOs who have that O&G hands on experience but don't bring in sufficient core investors. Two CEOs that didn't have an inch of hands on oil gas experience were Scots born Henry Cameron who led Sibir to a £2b takeover and the UKs Peter Levine who took Imperial Energy to a £1.4b takeover. Personally i'd judge the company as a whole and the people who are there and not base it solely on the CEO. Like the 2 other CEOs mentioned he has a major shareholding and if he does as well as them, then he could be in for a similar payoff incentive on his holding and every reason to get the share price to perform.
15/1/2020
12:42
zengas: CEO Pay/bonuses y/e 2014 paid $352k y/e 2015 paid $671k y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus) Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus) y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus). y/e 2019 to be announced In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m and if 2019 comes in similar to the previous 2 years he'll have gotten circa $8m in 6 years while the share price has been decimated. Give him another 3 years and at the contuning rate of pay and bonus's he'll have done alright with $14m+, never mind how your big shareholding is doing. Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful. Malcy/Vox markets - next time you have him on, these are the questions you need to ask or don't have him on at all, period !
25/11/2019
10:17
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP. Contrary to expectations, shares in Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) have struggled for ground (down 19%) since completing the Seven Energy transaction, opening up a potentially attractive entry point for investors, in our view. We note that the deal serves as an important valuation marker which is currently being overlooked by the market. As part of a partial sell-down in Nigeria, SAVP divested 20% of the Uquo gas field and Accugas midstream business to African infrastructure specialists AIIM for US$54m in cash. This implies a valuation net to SAVP’s residual 80% stake of US$270m (21.1p/shr) including the cash proceeds – firming underpinning the current share price (21.6p/shr). Notably, the sell down excludes SAVP’s interests in the Stubb Creek field (risked NAV 6p/shr) in Nigeria and of course its entire Niger portfolio (risked NAV 30p/shr), suggesting that, at the current price, these valuable assets are in for free.
29/8/2019
11:38
haideralifool: I want to ask about this from the Hannam note: "On completion of the deal there will be US$20mm of cash in from new shares issued to the SSN holders and US$54mm from sale of 20% of Accugas to AIIM. There will be some cash out relating to taxes due on the transaction and US$20mm to Frontier. SAVP will issue US$37mm of shares on completion (for the SSN and Stubb Creek purchase) at a price based on 5-day VWAP – at the current share price this would be ~160mm shares (current basic shares outstanding of 880mm). SAVP will also take on its 80% share of US$575mm of gross debt relating to Accugas and Uquo." The note was written when the share price was 21.6p If the share price rises between now and deal conclusion the number of shares the SSN holders get will be less than if it falls. So would it be in their interests to short now?
13/8/2019
11:02
zengas: 1-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p = 131.337 shares in issue. 10-7-15 = $36m at 38p = 175.1m shares in issue. 7-7-16 = $40m at 38p = 273m shares in issue. 22-12-17 = $125m at 35p = 817m shares in issue. 24-1-19 = $23m at 28p = 879m shares in issue. Most if not all of the money has come from institutional investors and for a great number of them, their averages will be much higher than the last funding at 28p. In my opinion most of the bigger subscribers average is closer to 38p - 40p. I haven't seen many institutions leave. Two or so sold down but others took their place. I worked on around 1b shares in issue. If the 7E deal goes ahead as expected $12.5m was intended as a dividend, but in future years with annual free cash flow of up to $150m from Nigeria some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend. $45m at a longer term exch rate of £1/$1.40 is about 3.2p/share ie 10% yield on a share price of 32p or 5% yield on a share price of 64p (excluding anything in Niger). Niger on a billion shares to get a £1-£2 share price target ie $1.4b -$2.8b of value on a similar longer term exch rate of £1/$1.40 would need to realise some 350-700 mmbls at $4/barrel and we've notched up about 50 mmbls already there so far according to the analysts from a total potential of 2.8 billion bls RISKED recoverable (From memory circa 4 billion bls UNRISKED) mid case and plenty to go round even with a farm in partner. If you add the potential from the 2 projects together there's a serious amount of combined upside potential from 12p currently given 7E production/immediate cash flow and substantial low risk Sokor Alternances play in Niger both in dividend and capital growth and that's why imo we havent seen many TR1s because unlike many PIs they can afford to take a longer term view on both sets of assets re risk profile. Unless there's any change to 7E, I still stick with my £2 target. While the delay isn't comfortable to bear and we should be getting on with things it's allowed me to average down in to the mid teens. Nigeria cash flow would be immediate and a high portion of the Niger exploration extremely low risk at 80% COS and as evidenced by the 5 out of 5 discoveries from scratch.
11/1/2019
08:41
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud - Savannah Petroleum GETTING MORE FOR LESS Following news in December of further positive changes to the Seven Energy transaction we are upgrading numbers on SAVP. Our EBITDA estimates for FY19 & FY20 rise 79% & 81%, respectively, to US$173m & US308m, reflecting SAVP’s enlarged 75% share of cash flows and full consolidation of Seven into SAVP’s financial accounts. In parallel, under the revised structure, our Total NAV increases 24% to 89p/shr, suggesting fair value approaching 3x the current share price. With the Seven deal now in final form and expected to close this quarter, in our opinion, the scene is set for a material re-rating in the near-term. Accordingly, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a refreshed target price of 89p/shr – up from 72p/shr previously. Revised terms deliver control of infrastructure and equity alignment: through a series of deal modifications agreed with PE partner African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM) SAVP has recast the terms of the Seven Energy acquisition. The revised structure will see SAVP acquire an incremental 55% of Accugas and in parallel divest 25% of the Uquo gas field, resulting in SAVP owning 75% of Seven’s midstream (Accugas) and upstream (Uquo gas) units, and AIIM the remaining 25%. Through increased ownership of Accugas (20% to 75%), SAVP gains control of a key piece of regional infrastructure which acts as the gateway to energy hungry gas customers in southeast Nigeria (see Accugas’s pipeline network in map in Figure 4, below). In our view, this is key to capturing the longer term growth opportunity around consolidating stranded gas resources (estimated at >40 tcf in the wider area), tapping into new regional power stations (such as Alaoji) and supplying high-paying industrial customers (currently burning diesel for an equivalent cost of >US$10/mcf – versus Accugas’s current weighted average sales price of US$3.5/mcf). Furthermore, equity alignment across Seven’s integrated gas business ensures the wider operation can be run as efficiently as possible. AIIM cash consideration boosts liquidity and supports our wider valuation case: in consideration for its 25% stake in Seven’s Uquo and Accugas assets, AIIM has agreed to pay SAVP US$70m in cash on deal completion. This provides SAVP with a fresh source of liquidity coming out of the deal, bolstering the group’s finances and providing growth capital for Nigeria and/or Niger. Furthermore, by paying US$70m for 25%, AIIM has in effect franked the value of SAVP’s Accugas and Uquo stakes at US$280m/21p (including US$70m of cash receipts). This compares to SAVP’s current share price of 31.5p – implying little value for the Stubb Creek field (in Nigeria) or the potential in Niger. To put this in perspective, our aggregate NAV for the Niger portfolio and Stubb Creek field stands at 36p risked.
24/9/2018
15:40
bushman1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (im plying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
24/9/2018
13:10
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (implying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
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