Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[honestmarty] 13/3/2018 09:28

Finally heading in the right direction,
Time to switch off and leave AK to work his alchemy.

[gersemi] 13/3/2018 07:22

The stock's not in play yet though looking at Eland (Nigeria) and SAVP (Niger) the market can be a tad cautious about the location which is unfortunate as that tends to dampen the market's enthusiasm for these two excellent oil companies

I do hold stock positions in these two companies

[honestmarty] 13/3/2018 07:18

I cannot understand the lack of interest here.
The drilling is just a few weeks away and will be of short duration.
A positive find will be transformative, even allowing for the relative size of the Nigerian assets.
We will then have 2 further cycles of drilling, with multiple RNS releases.
The Nigerian take over will be confirmed, there will be a production update, and the likely prospect of further asset acquisition.

Could be an extremely busy and profitable few months.

[soultrading] 12/3/2018 16:18

Rather large buys being worked today

[buffythebuffoon] 12/3/2018 16:00

"Further significant inorganic activity"

Not carbon based? Are we going into space exploration?

Buffy

[zengas] 12/3/2018 15:49

They're going to be doing more asset deals at some point.

"Further significant inorganic activity"

[honestmarty] 12/3/2018 15:44

If they discover significant oil in Niger and announce a plan to get it to production along with modest increasing Nigerian growth, North of 150p.
If they fail to find oil and attacks or scandal in Nigeria then below 10p.

I hope this analysis helps.

[missjojo] 12/3/2018 12:40

Does anyone have an opinion on where the share price for this company will be, in 12 months?

[1hopefultrader] 12/3/2018 11:12

News flow will increase now.

[thomasthetank1] 12/3/2018 10:19

Morning all - thought you might like to see Mirabaud's note on this morning's announcement.

Perhaps the most exciting exploration programme of 2018 in the UK-listed E&P sector is set to start in the coming days. Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has published an update on its three well drilling programme in Niger£s prolific Agadem basin, confirming that the first well (Bushiya) remains on track to spud by the end of the month. Adding some colour around its operations in country, the company noted that construction of the Bushiya well pad in the R3 block is now complete and fully manned and operational, with over 100 personnel on site, including the Great Wall Drilling rig crew and Savannah drilling supervisors. As previously flagged, the second and third wells will be drilled on the nearby Amdigh and Kunama prospects. At Amdigh, well pad construction is over 20% progressed and should be complete by the end of March. Following this, site preparation will start on the third and final firm well, Kunama. The wells will be drilled back-to-back with the same rig, with each taking 30-35 days to drill (plus 10-15 days for rig move in-between wells) suggesting initial results from Bushiya will be known by the end of April.

Turning to the geology, the three wells will target analogous 3D-defined fault-block structures to those successfully drilled by CNPC across the licence border, with stacked oil potential in Eocene Sokor Alternances (primary target) and Eocene-Oligocene Upper Sokor horizons (secondary target). Overall, the initial campaign is targeting unrisked mean prospective resources of 110 mmbbls (105 mmbbls net to SAVP), split equally across the three targets (Bushiya 36 mmbbls, Amidigh 39 mmbbls and Kunama 35 mmbbls). Importantly, the chance of success in this basin is unusually high for pure exploration. In adjacent acreage, CNPC has recorded a success rate of ~75% in 127 exploration wells and a staggering 93% in the area immediately around the R3 drilling targets. For Savannah, success in any one of these wells would be transformational. We value the three prospects at 32p/shr unrisked (12p/shr risked), comprising 11p/shr for Bushiya, 11p/shr for Amdigh and 10p/shr for Kunama. On top of this, the acreage contains significant follow-on potential across multiple lookalike prospects. Savannah£s independent reserve auditor CGG has estimated some 2.8bn bbls of net risked resource across its wider licence area. As such, we would expect success in this initial campaign to trigger more drilling activity as SAVP looks to determine the size of the prize.

[rampair] 12/3/2018 09:59

I think there are a % of people who want to use liquidity to exit. It was closed for trading for months - a few Executor sales, funds who don’t invest in Nigeria, people
who didn’t like the way things were done??

Personally I’m new here so I simply read current stuff as the past is just that,past.
It seems to be getting on with it’s stated works & if all is well then we will own shares in a very well backed company- so, not too worried about early morning Monday sales.
We are on for drilling - and what a drill it is ! Looks fairly large in the photos
on website!

R.

[phoebusav] 12/3/2018 09:48

100% agree. Herd still swarming round the usual rubbish. Their loss.

[honestmarty] 12/3/2018 09:08

WTF, you couldn't make it up.

More selling than buying and possibly RED soon!!!

[honestmarty] 12/3/2018 07:38

Quite the update
We are all systems go here.
And there is zero interest, astounding.

[zengas] 10/3/2018 15:03

lh re 2193

"soul trading I agree that this is a good investment at 28p now."

So what's the point of all the raving about risk and you would never invest in Nigeria but invested in Niger ? The risk is no different if it's 28p or 40p in either ! There were people like you who would never touch Colombia when Farc were on the go for years yet the oil/gas production was a major growth story and money to be made. If Nigeria was as bad it wouldn't have had an industry even at the worst of times in the past. CNPC for that matter are one of the biggest gas suppliers in Nigeria.

You say you invested at 40-42p. It was well flagged about corporate activity but you probably ignored that. Well the institutions are in again at 35p. It's at a discount now at 29.2p with plenty to underpin the company.

If it's a good investment at 28p it's no different at 35 or 42p and over the previous 3 placings the average was 42p so you're in the same league as many others with something behind the company should it not do well in Niger. You'll not be the first to buy at the bottom or sell at the high.

[buffythebuffoon] 10/3/2018 14:32

It’s a safer investment, marginally (given the success rate in the part of Niger we are drilling).

I agree though that for the short term the upside is less.

Buffy

[lithological heterogeneities] 10/3/2018 06:24

Zengas argues that this is now a better investment as the Niger drilling could have failed so we now have something else to fall back on.

I do not agree as anyone who looks at the outstanding success rate in the Niger region,using the SAME drilling contractor that the Chinese used made in almost certain that one,or more, of these 3 drills would have hit oil.

Just check this for yourself. Its the whole reason why the Niger drilling campaign has such incredible potential ON ITS OWN.

I bought into one company and have ended up with a different company.

[lithological heterogeneities] 10/3/2018 06:07

20 Feb 2018
Pipeline sabotage plunged Nigeria into recession


Over 90 per cent of the oil spillage in the Niger Delta region is due to sabotage of pipelines and other facilities in the oil and gas industry, the Chairman of Shell Companies in Nigeria, Osagie Okunbor, has said.

According to him, the sabotage of facilities in the industry is the biggest challenge confronting oil companies operating in the Niger Delta, adding that this was a major causal factor that plunged Nigeria into recession in 2016.

[soultrading] 08/3/2018 21:22

Ok not everyone but shareprophets had it on their 3 to buy section of their February ukinvestor show magazine. hxxps://www.shareprophets.com the article was by Gary Newman.

It is also in Malcys bucket list, which he reiterated on the 26 February, hxxp://www.malcysblog.com/2018/02/delayed-bucket-list-2018-six-new-stocks-now-review-planned-june/

And then, of course, it was in

I confess I only started looking at this because someone on a private Betfair forum said it had real potential so that made me take a look a the website, watched the video and looked a the deals they have done and the upcoming 3 drill program kicking off in Q1 - it got me interested.

It seems to have sizable assets and lots of potential not to mention the headroom of the funds raised by institutional investors and CEO at 35p. So I took a punt here, might be right might be wrong but the reward seemed to outweigh the risk so I am in.

[rampair] 08/3/2018 20:30

I’m getting asked by people I know that have read some article.
Not exactly scientific! But . ...it’s up a decent % since the low.
That’s what we want, the rest is noise.
Litho you may get your cash back!

R.

[lithological heterogeneities] 08/3/2018 19:24

by "everyone" you mean just the one other posted here yesterday in a magazine hardly anyone has ever heard of.

[soultrading] 08/3/2018 15:17

He is not the only one tipping it though..
Everyone seems to be.