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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah Petroleum Plc | SAVP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 8.90 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90 | 8.90 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 06/1/2021 17:52 by mount teide It's not often that PI's get an opportunity to build a position in a high cash generating company like SAVE at a discount of up to 80% to the weighted average price of the group of blue chip Institutional Investors that have supported the placings to date.Placings: 01-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p 10-7-15 = $36m at 38p 07-7-16 = $40m at 38p 22-12-17 = $125m at 35p 24-1-19 = $23m at 28p $274m raised at an average of 39.1p In 2021 with potential annual free cash flow of $140m from Nigeria(Finncap Note) some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend. $42m at an exchange rate of £1/$1.35 is about 3.1p/share - 21% yield on the current share price - 10% yield on a share price of 31p or 5% yield on a share price of 62p (excluding any contribution from Niger. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 17/4/2020 21:51 by zengas If there was a payment issue going back to 2019 then i assume it will be rectified now. That is if we were still owed anything outstanding. All needs to be read carefully as some gas companies do not have power supply agreements where we do and also covered by guarantee.What i find interesting is these payment issues have been resolved with the government helping out and paying the Gencos to settle outstanding gas bills - in the same week Savp tweets about increasing gas supplies, new broker notes, change of name to an energy company - Overall i'm confident. If anyone looks at the March broker note it assumes $130m free cash flow average with just 10% of that affected by oil +/- pricing. Also states that Savp are continuing to sort out their refinancing and for every 1 basis point it would increase the cash flow by $4m so that would be a very big positive as there's room to knock it down by 3 or 4 at least i believe. Maybe this delay in refinancing could be linked to any outstanding payments or simply bedding the company in as being successfully run. 16 April 2020 Premium Times (Abuja) By Bassey Udo The federal government has approved the payment of over N200 billion to the power sector in the two or three days. This will go a long way in making sure that those payment issues are resolved. We are engaging as the government to make sure that those payment issues are fully settled," the NNPC boss said. Mr Mohammed assured that although there was sufficient gas to supply, there were several power plants that do not have gas supply agreements. Such agreements, he said, spell out the terms and conditions under which gas is supplied by the suppliers to the buyers. "The suppliers always divert the available gas to other places, and from time to time, the government always face some constraints in the supply of gas to electricity producers, which is a big problem," he said. He said the NDPHC would soon receive its part of the payment and has already assured the GMD of NNPC that as soon as the NDPHC was paid, payment vouchers would be ready, for the immediate remittance to the gas companies. April 17, 2020 The Group Managing Director (GMD) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mallam Mele Kyari, after meeting with the Minister of Power, Engr. Saleh Mamman, and the MD, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Mr Usman Gur Mohammed at the Ministry of Power headquarters in Abuja on Wednesday said “The federal government had made payment of N200 billllon to the power sector in the past days which he said was to ensure that the payment issues in the industry are resolved. Ogaji said “For the record, Gencos have not received fresh funds from anyone. What Gencos have been paid is payment for energy produced and consumed for 2019. “We are currently being paid for monies owed for 2019. |
Posted at 17/4/2020 21:49 by zengas My reply to Paul on LSE.Paul I pressed on that issue and was told they were being paid and nothing else elaborated on re any payment delays or non payment. I have not heard of any guarantees called upon and we have 2 of them. Bottom line is i'm led to believe that we are being paid but as i said previous i do not know or am privy to what the standard settlement/payment terms are for Savp. I will add for anyone that follows things, some of the problems in the electricity sector is lack of gas supply and indeed payment issues from the Gencos. Gencos in turn were complaining that gas suppliers were demanding upfront payments. A broker note went out mid March and there was no mention of any payment issues for Savp (whether they would be aware i don't know but surely would highlight it it was an issue). It's interesting that Savp tweeted last week that they had actually increased gas supplies during the Covid-19 outbreak (tweet on the 13th). Today the name change to Savannah Energy and a new website from Monday. Today a Numis note tweeted by Savp as being out today but i haven't seen it and might be on that new website when unlocked monday. Surely Numis took some guidance from Savp as to the current state of play ?? If this is all coincidence and the reason for being quiet to date in delaying updates to resolve any outstanding issues i don't know - but the most important thing i've learned is that the Government has paid the Gencos over N200b (i think that's some £400m) to settle outstanding gas bills and resolve the problem. Business & Economy: FG pays N200bn to offset Gencos’ gas bill The Federal Government has in the past two to three days paid over N200bn for power supply in Nigeria, the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mele Kyari, declared on Wednesday. When asked what government was doing to resolve the non-payment for gas by power generation companies, Kyari said, “Actually the Federal Government has made payments of over N200bn for power in the last two to three days. The NNPC boss stated that the payment would adequately help in settling the indebtedness of power generation firms to gas companies. |
Posted at 07/4/2020 09:34 by tens machine New tweet from savpWe are conscious of the issues COVID-19 poses. To date, our operations remain unaffected and we continue to monitor the situation closely, so we can continue to operate the business while keeping ourselves and our loved ones safe. #SAVP #COVID19 #EmployeeWelfare #WorldHealthDay |
Posted at 15/2/2020 16:34 by zengas Re Savp EITI tweet - Delved a bit deeper into the possible significance of this on the EITI website.Some important points here re Niger/lack of news from Savp - may be down to Niger. $4b in Oil/Gas sector expected over next 2 years - Who and where from other than $2.8b from CNPC pipeline ? What will the new State owned oil/gas 'Enterprise' look like ? Was rejoining Eiti a critical requirement ? (especially with World Bank involvement see further internal links). New Niger Petroleum policy recently adopted. Last updated 13 February 2020 The EITI Board accepted Niger as an EITI member at its 46th Board meeting in Oslo from 13-14 February 2020. Niger is the world’s fifth largest producer of uranium. It also has considerable reserves in gold, iron, coal and oil. Oil production began in 2011 and intensified following the expansion of the Agadem project by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), as well as several discoveries by Algerian state-owned enterprise SONATRACH and Savannah Petroleum. Niger’s oil production is projected to increase from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels a day in 2021, Niger will use the EITI to monitor production and revenues in the burgeoning hydrocarbon sector, which is expected to generate substantial government revenues to develop the national economy. The government recently adopted a new petroleum policy, making oil production a key driver for Niger’s development. The government expects to receive USD 4 billion in investment over the next two years in the oil and gas sector. Plans are underway to establish a new state-owned enterprise in the oil and gas sector. Production Niger is currently building two pipeline projects. One carries refined petroleum products to the border with Burkina Faso. The other, a pipeline to the coast of Benin, would allow Niger to become a crude oil exporter and significantly contribute to increased production. Crude oil output and exports of refined petroleum products are currently constrained by the country’s sole refinery’s capacity of 20,000 barrels per day and transport logistics. The proposed pipeline, traversing Benin to the coast would be capable of transporting up to 185,000 barrels per day. Validation Niger's Validation against the Standard will commence on 13 August 2022. New Petroleum Policy in French (Savp, CNPC, Sonatrach mentioned) |
Posted at 08/2/2020 11:20 by zengas As i've said before i await to see the update for Niger and agree it's been painfully slow. What's keeping me in is that when they took the assets on, they've certainly been proved 100% correct on the high chance of success so i see no reason why this can't be magnified many times over given the close proximity and analogous nature of the prospects yet to drill.I never expected to see every single one drilled and with a target of some 2.8 billion bls of already risked recoverable oil, i've felt that getting just 18% of that net to Savp at the lower $4 per/b estimate would be enough to create $2b worth of value for Savp especially with a major pipeline on the horizon as well as domestic supply. On the other hand to get such a comprehensive and reworked improved Nigerian deal through with so many parties concerned imo was no mean feat. So i personally feel that deserves credit and if he/Savp can do that then imo there's hope for future and less complicated deals in continuing to grow the company. The first announcement of what i hope are many new customer deals has started to filter through already and they beleive the capacity of the gas processing facilities will be fully utilised by the end of the year. As regards not having hands on O&G experience i'll agree but he certainly has a good team around him and they used the best legal entities (one sits on the board) in dd and he's also been able to bring on board many top blue chip investors/world bank arm etc to invest in Savp as against many CEOs who have that O&G hands on experience but don't bring in sufficient core investors. Two CEOs that didn't have an inch of hands on oil gas experience were Scots born Henry Cameron who led Sibir to a £2b takeover and the UKs Peter Levine who took Imperial Energy to a £1.4b takeover. Personally i'd judge the company as a whole and the people who are there and not base it solely on the CEO. Like the 2 other CEOs mentioned he has a major shareholding and if he does as well as them, then he could be in for a similar payoff incentive on his holding and every reason to get the share price to perform. |
Posted at 31/1/2020 07:58 by thomasthetank1 All - please see below from Mirabaud this morning.BST Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced that Accugas, its Nigerian midstream arm, has entered into a fresh gas sales agreement (GSA) with a subsidiary of Sahara Group - owner of the 180MW Afam power plant in Rivers State. Sahara is a major independent energy and infrastructure conglomerate with annual revenue of >US$10bn. The agreement is part of a broader push by SAVP's to add high quality, investment grade customers and diversify its supply base. The GSA envisages the supply of up to 35 mmscf/d (5.8 kboepd) of gas from the Uquo field to the Afam power plant, which is linked to Accugas infrastructure via the state-owned Nigerian Gas Company's (NGC) Ikot/Obigbo network. Importantly, as no incremental capex is required to supply the gas, first deliveries can be achieved in the relatively near-term - once Sahara has finalised tariff arrangements with NGC to move the gas over its pipeline network. The gas is being supplied on an "interruptible" basis, which means SAVP can tweak deliveries dependent on demand under its existing supply arrangements. Likewise, Afam has the option to take as much or as little gas as it wishes, dependent on plant utilisation (historically ~70%). The GSA is valid for an initial one-year term (extendible by mutual consent) and has the potential to be up-sized, following completion of a 180MW expansion project at Afam (now underway). This represents a major new incremental supply opportunity. SAVP notes that the GSA "augments the weighted average profitability of the Accugas portfolio", though the sales price is undisclosed for commercial reasons. We estimate that the Afam gas contract could be worth around US$25m annually (in post-tax CF), assuming ~70% capacity utilisation and similar margins to SAVP's base integrated gas business. To put this in perspective, our group-level FY20 post-tax CF forecast currently stands at ~US$100m, based solely on existing contracts (141 mmscf/d of Take or Pay volumes, maintenance adjusted). Accordingly, today's news is materially accretive and demonstrates the value of layering in new gas contracts. |
Posted at 25/11/2019 10:17 by thomasthetank1 Mirabaud note on SAVP.Contrary to expectations, shares in Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) have struggled for ground (down 19%) since completing the Seven Energy transaction, opening up a potentially attractive entry point for investors, in our view. We note that the deal serves as an important valuation marker which is currently being overlooked by the market. As part of a partial sell-down in Nigeria, SAVP divested 20% of the Uquo gas field and Accugas midstream business to African infrastructure specialists AIIM for US$54m in cash. This implies a valuation net to SAVP’s residual 80% stake of US$270m (21.1p/shr) including the cash proceeds – firming underpinning the current share price (21.6p/shr). Notably, the sell down excludes SAVP’s interests in the Stubb Creek field (risked NAV 6p/shr) in Nigeria and of course its entire Niger portfolio (risked NAV 30p/shr), suggesting that, at the current price, these valuable assets are in for free. |
Posted at 17/11/2019 20:24 by zengas For 2020 the expected net asset cash flows were expected to be one of the following or somewhere between the two.Daily Contract Quantity (DCQ) = $153.5m or $120m under Take or Pay (ToP). These were defined on 31/5/19 RNS (note 8) as Savps economic share of post-tax operating cash flows less capital expenditure. The Mirabaud note of 15/11/19 estimates Savp for 2020 will generate revenue of $235m of which $174m being EBITDA. In the worst case under ToP of $120m post tax opex, Savp should have $30m quarterly before any new business (at least one new gas sales contract mentioned as expected in the coming months). It's just recieved $54m from its partner AIIM and $20m from some of the former senior note holders - so $74m in as of now less whatever costs- maybe $10m given that's the max we were borrowing ? plus there's also still the possibility of a further 5% sale for $16m to AIIM. Savp also stated it was $5m net to first oil now in Niger. (1k bopd estimated to yield up to $10m/yr cash flow). No mention of any drawdown from the $50m facility obtained from the Oil Trading Group or what that might be used for but it entitles the provider to have first offer on handling the Nigerian or Niger oil. Now that the deal has been signed off and completed, we should hear at some point on the refinancing under proposed better terms for the debt which would free up more cash for Savp. In the absence of a partner for Niger, the above might see Savp with around $100m cash at the end of its first quarter and an ongoing $30m/quarterly. So maybe as they take control now of the assets, a few months bedding in before any sign off on the next Niger work programme - but come it most definitely will. |
Posted at 15/11/2019 07:50 by thomasthetank1 Mirabaud Research - SAVANNAH PETROLEUM: SEVEN TRANSACTION COMPLETIONIn arguably its biggest achievement to date, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced the completion of the Seven Energy transaction in Nigeria, transforming the company into a major full cycle E&P. The principal assets acquired from Seven comprise the Uquo gas field and Accugas processing facilities & pipeline infrastructure, which are owned 80% by SAVP and 20% by AIIM, the African infrastructure fund. This substantial, integrated gas project contains ~96 mmboe of gross 2P reserves and currently delivers ~150 mmscf/d (25 kboepd) of gross gas (take or pay volume) from the wellhead to end user. On top of the Uquo field, the company also has a 51% stake in the nearby Stubb Creek field, in partnership with Sinopec. This asset is currently producing small oil volumes but has a significant untapped gas resource which will be used to backfill the Uquo field. Broadly speaking, SAVP’s strategy in Nigeria is to ramp up gas volumes under its existing contracts and add new high value industrial users which are currently burning diesel at a gas equivalent of >US$10/mcf. As the only significant gas infrastructure owner in the Calabar region the company is ideally placed to deliver on this promise. Looking Ahead, we estimate that SAVP will generate revenue & EBITDA of US$235m & US$174m in FY20 – the first full year of Seven ownership. Nigeria FCF will be funnelled into organic growth projects and debt repayment, allowing the business to rapidly de-lever (inherited Nigeria net debt ~US$480m). Further enhancing SAVP’s liquidity position, the company has sold 20% of Uquo and Accugas for US$54m in cash to AIIM, effective on closing. It has also received US$20m in cash via an equity injection by former Seven SSN holders. Whilst part of this cash inflow will be used to satisfy Seven related costs (Frontier swap, Government transaction tax, payables etc) the company will have sufficient liquidity to restart operations in Niger where first oil and further exploration drilling is on the cards for H2 2020. In summary, the stock remains cheap – trading at less than one-third of our Total NAV (94p) – and with the Seven deal closed, we believe the scene is set for a re-rating as the business plan unfolds. |
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