Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 27/12/2017 15:51

Then what? We do as Dentists do and drill, drill, drill!

[divmad] 27/12/2017 15:15

As long as the Seven E deal goes through as planned, you're correct there, MT.

But Mr Market is giving a certain % chance to it failing for one reason or another, presumably. Then what?

[mount teide] 27/12/2017 14:42

As Harry Markopolis shrewdly observed "Never underestimate Institutional Investor greed" - they will use any sign of weakness or opportunity presented to them to push for a better deal.

I suspect the passage of time will show that master Knott's negotiating 'tactics' proved a little naive and, presented the II's with an opportunity at the eleventh hour to achieve more than they were previously expecting to get.

[bushman1] 27/12/2017 14:22

IH, are we to understand, currently only 16% of SAVPs' shares are in pi's hands ?

The rest being with the institutional investors who therefore hold a fairly huge 84 %.

Right up to the announcement day, a figure of between 40 p to 50 p was the price for the book building.

How can you therefore suggest the II's were not comfortable with a price higher, originally, than 35 p ?

Of course they were, and they will be again. As MT notes below, they will seize any opportunity for a better price and this it appears is what happened.

Please think logically IH. Tomorrow, if the price drops upon opening, I'd bet a bottom dollar the II's will be buying.

If you need a bit of a boost do refer to the Mirabaud note..

[bushman1] 27/12/2017 11:48

Not ramping, simply stating as a long term buyer in SAVP ~ initially buying in fourteen months ago after the Pro-active Investors presentation with J.S in London and always a LTH ~ this price IMVHO is a unique, tremendous buying opportunity.

I have therefore added to my holding this a.m at 29.25 p and 29.1 p. Now a reversal trend is required ... Where are those Share Tipsters ? .... :)

[zengas] 27/12/2017 10:33

With the Niger CPR figures in front of us this is one of the biggest value plays on offer.

1. Mirabauds note on Savp is using $4.60/bl for Niger. (oil now in the upper $60s/bl)

2. The mid - high case *unrisked* RECOVERABLE target is 6.9 - 10.3 billion bls oil.

3. The success case is risked at 41% ie 2.821 bls mid - 4.2 billion bls high case recoverable.

4. Becomes *net* risked 2.2 - 3.3 billion bls recoverable after govt take (ie after some 59% failure rate not per well, but across combination of all target zones).

5. If Mirabauds figure were applied to net risked recoverable, target value becomes £7.5 billion mid to £11 billion high case.

6. Using $3/bl gives £4.9 billion risked value target on a 41% success rate mid case (versus $4.60/bl used by Mirabaud which is £7.5 billion of value).

"Estimates of reservoir properties have been checked by CGG, and these are thought to be reasonable or slightly conservative"

R3 East prospects

"All the prospects identified in the area are clearly within the oil discovery trend with discoveries to the northwest and to the southeast".

[ch1rp] 27/12/2017 09:30

Utterly ridiculous price. Can only imagine this rocketing from here on in. Assets, prospects, great management team. 80p by Q2.

[bushman1] 24/12/2017 16:08

IH. You kept up your good humour most days these past weeks.. I hope SAVP in 2018 will be one of your best investments.

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/12/2017 15:56

Anyway,Merry Christmas and fingers crossed for 28 Dec.

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/12/2017 15:51

I hope there is a broker note and/or some positive press. We need it.

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/12/2017 15:51

Had a good read of placing document.First tranche of shares hitting the market on 28 Dec so likely to be a volatile day.Deal is a long way from completion,if it completes at all.Not at all happy with this. This could drag on for quite some time or even fail.

[bushman1] 24/12/2017 08:44

It would be very welcome publicity if SAVP are tipped as one of the O & G stocks to look out for in 2018.

Should anyone spot such a tip, please post + the link to the bb. Many thanks.

Merry Christmas and New Years' Greetings.

[divmad] 24/12/2017 07:45

What was your worst then, lh?

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/12/2017 06:49

SAVP has been one of my worst investments in 2017.

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/12/2017 04:18

still nothing.

[divmad] 22/12/2017 20:45

Zengas,

In SAVP's Placing document, regarding the Niger drilling they state:

" This campaign is expected to target significant prospective oil resources within the Eocene Sokor Alternances primary target."

Does this include or preclude the potential for multi-stack drilling potential, that had been alluded to earlier in the year?

[lithological heterogeneities] 22/12/2017 15:06

Malcy view:http://www.malcysblog.com/2017/12/oil-price-savannah-petroleum-sdx-energy-rock-rose-energy-finally/Savannah PetroleumSAVP has finally announced that they have completed the book building operation and closed the placing, no small feat in the week before Christmas! They have raised $125m by placing 266m new shares at 35p with one warrant for every two shares applied for. The raise is to fund the cash element of the acquisition of some of the assets of Seven Energy, the Niger drilling campaign and for general funding purposes. CEO Andrew Knott who with his team must have worked tirelessly on this deal for many months said that this would be 'a transformational acquisition for Savannah' with which I would concur. Expect much operational news flow from the company in the new year, including the upcoming Niger drilling in the near-term which the market has been looking forward to, and of course the company will start paying a dividend in due course.

[divmad] 22/12/2017 14:54

Very happy to hold and add to my holding at this depressed, end of year, stupid time to do a major AIM raise.

[taudelta1] 22/12/2017 14:52

Re Niger assets, prospectus indicates aspirational pipeline capacity 18,000 b/d .. i.e. 6.57 mln bbl/year so if there are 2.8 bn bbls, will take 426 years to ship them out ... think they need to prove up the oil then sell to, or do a sizeable farmout to, a major that can sort out some serious pipeline capacity many times more than 18kb/d ...

[lithological heterogeneities] 22/12/2017 13:14

JNBRW

Yep. Great investment.

Merry Christmas
:0)

[jnbrw] 22/12/2017 12:58

Mirabaud note very positive.

L h - you do take the biscuit. After incessant bleating for months and months about having your money tied up and better opportunities elsewhere and how you intend to dump the lot ...... you are now continuing to hold and positive lol.

merry Christmas to all