Saga Share Discussion Threads

[fjgooner] 06/2/2024 23:10

I am assuming that the investment world is now perverse.

A couple of years ago, when results were FAR worse and transparency going forward was utterly lacking, Saga was trading between 300p and 400p. If I recall correctly the CEO bought £200,000 worth of shares at just under £3.90.

Now, with travel almost fully on track and cruise booming, why all this gloom from the markets?

Insurance has been under pressure over the last couple of years, but all the talk in the media over the last couple of days has been about motor policy prices rocketing.

So why the gloom?

See: sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/saga-says-annual-profit-set-to-more-than-double--15995692.html

Saga says annual profit set to more than double

Saga said on Tuesday that it expects full-year underlying pre-tax profit to more than double on the previous year as it hailed an "outstanding" year for the cruise and travel businesses.

In an update for the period from 1 August 2023 to 29 January 2024, Saga - which specialises in products and services for the over-50s - said it now expects revenue growth of between 10% and 15%.

Ocean Cruise revenue is expected to grow by around 30% year-on-year, it said, delivered through a load factor of 87% and per diem of £331, both significantly ahead of the 75% and £318 seen a year earlier.

As a result, and in line with previous guidance, the group expects to exceed its target of £40m Ocean Cruise trading EBITDA per ship.

Meanwhile, the river cruise segment is expected to return to underlying profit, supported by a load factor of 85% and a per diem of £285. This equates to revenue of around £44m and 17,000 passengers, up from £29m and 12,000 a year earlier.

Travel revenue growth is expected to be between 40% and 45%, with 58,000 passengers, up more than 20% on the prior year. In line with previous guidance, travel - when combined with the river cruise business for consistency with previous reporting - is on track to return to pre-pandemic underlying pre-tax profit, it said.

Chief executive Mike Hazell said: "For 2023/24, Saga remains on track to deliver significant growth in revenue, in addition to an underlying profit more than double that of the prior year, exceeding our previous guidance.

"Our cruise and travel businesses have had an outstanding year, having taken around 120k passengers on holiday, with customers continuing to be drawn to the strength of the Saga brand and offer. As a result, these businesses will return to profitability, in line with expectations. In insurance, the market-wide inflationary environment and declining policy volumes are continuing to impact our performance.

"The year ahead will see a continuation of these trends across our business. Bookings for the new seasons in cruise and travel are robust, showing good overall progress."

Saga confirmed at the end of last week that it was considering options for its cruse business, including a partnership arrangement.

[rmillaree] 06/2/2024 07:43

The rns simply quoted stuff that sounded half decent but were already known about - the board here hardly ever give clear concise guidance so no one has a clue what why are saying practicably speaking
. Done took the news ref poss selling ships as good news - I read it that they have to make serious plans ref 2026 bond call now - they are already relying on largesse of main bid that says everything you need to know about risk here.

[kulvinder] 06/2/2024 07:27

Yes and I thought the RNS was saying things have improved, obviously the market thinks otherwise.

[finkie] 06/2/2024 03:26

Disasterous share price performance in last few weeks right back to square one. Hmmm….

[kulvinder] 02/2/2024 18:28

TT, I really hope so, have a good weekend.

[kulvinder] 02/2/2024 16:20

Another sh*t investment on my part....should have bailed while I had the chance at 160 the other day.

[kulvinder] 31/1/2024 15:31

Looks like the update was not taken well, with insurance revenue going down year on year. Drifting back again from a high the other day of 160.

[rmillaree] 30/1/2024 11:34

Babbler
"Excellent news. Profits doubled. Should tag highs soon."

Nonsense this news tells us nothing we need to know

Note underlying profit excludes whatever they want to exclude so isnt real profits - we have no evidence real profits have doubled , although last year was so poor we should be aimig for actual numbers rather than doublininga pathetic number.

Note last year underlying pbt was 21.5 mill - actual result was loss before tax of £254 mill !!!- even ignoring goodwil imaprment there was 6.7 mill exceptional items taken off te underlying numbers

I have expectations in at 29.3 mill net profit this year

if we say underying profit before tax is £45 mill (double plus a bit) say £7 mil of stuff hidden in exceptionals thats £38 mill pre tax - saY 25% tax £9 mill that gives us £29 mill - simply as per expectations


they have not commented on whether they have beat prior market expectations - thats all that matters they have simply quoted useless mummbo jumbo they think sounds good but is useless. I would have thught it unlikely they havent at least met market expections but really until we get broker updates todays news is saying didly squat of use imho it might be as expected perhaps up a bit. Thats probably why shareprice is down from 155-160p levels it was a few days ago - all positive spin with zero substance unfortunately. Hopefully for holders theer may be positibve updates from brokers - but dont preume that wil be the case - i would guess very marginal beat at best and very marginal upgrade ref new year - i totally guessing though.

[ttny2004] 30/1/2024 11:07

Yes, most of them always seem to be behind the curve. You have to laugh!

[koetser] 30/1/2024 09:16

Excellent news. Look forward to inevitable broker upgrades

[ttny2004] 30/1/2024 08:39

Yes, with what seems positive outlook next few years think this should start to rerate soon. Especially switching to a light asset model, maximising optimisation and central cost reductions that have been made.Insurance still a thorn in our tail, but no mention of selling as previously mentioned over the last years so stabilising this business is key and maximising cruise and travel business.

[babbler] 30/1/2024 08:03

Excellent news. Profits doubled. Should tag highs soon.

[ttny2004] 30/1/2024 07:59

Overall I thought was very positive, and great to see progress being made that will continue through new FY.23/24 Highlights for me are;- revenue growth of between 10-15% and an Underlying Profit Before Tax more than double that of the prior year.· Ocean Cruise revenue growth 30% year-on-year, load factor of 87% (75% in 22/23) and per diem of £331 (£318 in 22/23) - expect to exceed target of £40.0m Ocean Cruise Trading EBITDA (Excluding Overheads) per ship.· River Cruise return to underlying profit, supported by a load factor of 85% and a per diem of £285. This equates to revenue of around £44m (£29m in 22/23) and 17k (12k in 22/23) passengers.· Travel revenue growth is expected to be between 40-45%, with 58k passengers (20% increase). Travel return to pre-pandemic Underlying Profit Before Tax.· Conditions facing Insurance businesses are broadly unchanged. Policy sales are expected to be 9% behind, with customer retention of 81% (84% 22/23), and margin per policy around £54 (£69 22/23) decline slowing down as was £56 in H1.· Insurance Underwriting expects to report an Underlying Profit Before Tax in the low-single digits and a gross current year combined operating ratio lower than the 136.4% reported in the first half of the year, as the significant price increases applied begin to flow through.· Following the cost efficiencies delivered mean central costs will be significantly lower at around £30m ( £37.7m 22/23).· Available Cash is expected to be in the range of £135-145m at 31 January 2023, excluding the £50m revolving credit facility and the £85m facility with Roger De Haan which both remain undrawn. - Total Net Debt is expected to be slightly higher than at 31 July 2023, in line with guidance.Looking ahead to 2024/25· At 28 January 2024, the 2024/25 Ocean Cruise booked load factor and per diem were materially ahead of the prior year at 66% and £368 respectively, compared with 62% and £337 in the prior year.· intent to move to a capital-light business model, would support further growth, crystallise value, reduce debt and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.· The River Cruise booked load factor, at 28 January 2024, was 59% with a per diem of £335, both significantly ahead of the 52% and £295 respectively at the same time last year.· Our Travel business is also making progress, largely in line with the dynamics over the last year. At 28 January 2024, booked revenue for 2024/25 was £115m, 12% ahead of the same point in the prior year, with passengers of 35k, 2% ahead.· insurance business focus on effectively balancing the protection and, ultimately, growth of policy sales with the delivery of sustainable profitability. This reshaping will take place over time as the market challenges begin to wane, but temporarily will effect profitability for insurance. This was only point to watch closely found forward. Everything else really good.Confirmed ability to be able to make loan Payment in May.· The full year impact of the central cost efficiencies delivered will continue to flow through into the coming year, in line with guidance, as we embed our leaner operating model.· As we have previously indicated, we expect to repay the £150m bond due in May 2024 through Available Cash resources and the £85.0m facility with Roger De Haan.

[skinny] 30/1/2024 07:02

2023/24 Outlook

· The Group is expected to report revenue growth of between 10-15% and an Underlying Profit Before Tax more than double that of the prior year1.

· Ocean Cruise revenue growth is expected to be around 30% year-on-year, delivered through a load factor of 87% and per diem of £331, both significantly ahead of the 75% and £318 in the prior year. As a result, and in line with previous guidance, we expect to exceed our target of £40.0m Ocean Cruise Trading EBITDA (Excluding Overheads) per ship.

· River Cruise is expected to return to underlying profit, supported by a load factor of 85% and a per diem of £285. This equates to revenue of around £44m and 17k passengers, which compares with £29m and 12k passengers in the prior year.

· Travel revenue growth is expected to be between 40-45%, with 58k passengers, an increase of more than 20% when compared with the prior year. In line with previous guidance, Travel (when combined with River Cruise for consistency with previous reporting) is on track to return to pre-pandemic Underlying Profit Before Tax.

· Conditions facing our Insurance businesses are broadly unchanged. In Insurance Broking, both policies in force and policy sales across all products, are expected to be around 9% lower than in the prior year. In motor and home specifically:

o policy sales are expected to be 9% behind, with customer retention of 81%, compared with 84% in the year before; and

o the margin per policy is expected to be around £54, compared with £69 in the prior year1 and £56 in the first half.

· Insurance Underwriting expects to report an Underlying Profit Before Tax in the low-single digits and a gross current year combined operating ratio lower than the 136.4% reported in the first half of the year, as the significant price increases applied begin to flow through.

· Following the cost efficiencies reported in our interim results and subsequent actions taken, central costs are expected to be significantly lower than in the prior year, at around £30m, compared with £37.7m in the year before.

· Available Cash is expected to be in the range of £135-145m at 31 January 2023, excluding the £50m revolving credit facility and the £85m facility with Roger De Haan which both remain undrawn. Total Net Debt is expected to be slightly higher than at 31 July 2023, in line with guidance.



Looking ahead to 2024/25

· At 28 January 2024, the 2024/25 Ocean Cruise booked load factor and per diem were materially ahead of the prior year at 66% and £368 respectively, compared with 62% and £337 in the prior year.

· Given the ongoing momentum in Ocean Cruise, the business is now approaching optimum capacity, building on the continued high demand for our successful boutique cruise offer. We are exploring opportunities to optimise the business, including potential partnership arrangements which, consistent with our move to a capital-light business model, would support further growth, crystallise value, reduce debt and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.

· The River Cruise booked load factor, at 28 January 2024, was 59% with a per diem of £335, both significantly ahead of the 52% and £295 respectively at the same time last year.

· Our Travel business is also making progress, largely in line with the dynamics over the last year. At 28 January 2024, booked revenue for 2024/25 was £115m, 12% ahead of the same point in the prior year, with passengers of 35k, 2% ahead.

· The conditions in Insurance remain challenging and, against this backdrop, we are focused on effectively balancing the protection and, ultimately, growth of policy sales with the delivery of sustainable profitability. This reshaping will take place over time as the market challenges begin to wane, however, the likely changes are expected to impact profitability in the short-term.

· In 2023/24, we refocused on our core businesses of Cruise, Travel, Insurance and Money, underpinned by our data and brand strategy, having exited our smaller loss-making businesses of Saga Exceptional, Insight and Spaces. Moving into 2024/25, our purposeful and insightful customer-driven content will be showcased within our popular magazine and regular newsletters.

· The full year impact of the central cost efficiencies delivered will continue to flow through into the coming year, in line with guidance, as we embed our leaner operating model.

· As we have previously indicated, we expect to repay the £150m bond due in May 2024 through Available Cash resources and the £85.0m facility with Roger De Haan.

[dmf] 26/1/2024 14:12

Cheap for a reason.....substantial debt ...over £600 mn

[koetser] 26/1/2024 10:36

Yes but remember nothing has happened apart from talking about it. However the shares are dirt cheap anyway

[omron] 26/1/2024 09:44

I am surprised by the modest price reaction to the announcement that could be transformational for the share price. A deal around the cruise side could clear all the debt leaving the insurance business which achieved a PBT of £88m last year and £122m the year before. Has anyone seen a recent broker sum of the parts valuation.

[sidam] 26/1/2024 08:21

Chart breakout?

[sidam] 26/1/2024 08:19

Maybe the opposite! Close to capacity - a partnership might allow them to expand and get an implied value to this business. Possibly good news. Given time we will find out.

[joshuam] 26/1/2024 08:17

Close to full capacity…̷0;..excellent

[denholm elliott] 26/1/2024 07:42

Fire sale warning?

[aishah] 26/1/2024 07:21

Saga plc

Response to Media Coverage

Saga plc (Saga or the Group) notes recent media coverage. Saga is committed to providing best-in-class products and services to its customers across all its businesses. The Board is exploring opportunities to optimise Saga's operational and strategic position in Cruise, where exceptional demand for its boutique ocean cruise offer means it is operating at close to capacity. It has concluded that a partnership arrangement for Ocean Cruise would be consistent with Group strategy to move to a capital-light business model to support further growth and crystalise value, reduce debt and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.

No decision has yet been made and there can be no certainty that any partnership agreement will occur. A further announcement will be made in due course, as appropriate.