Looks like Roger has been paid off and the RCF cleared too. Not sure if it is significant as it is expected |
Saga received tender offer acceptance for £186,250,000 of the £250m outstanding |
Seems it just did not want to go above 138 this time around. Keep patience, surely this has got to start the upward March soon... |
2026 bonds have just the tender offer. |
Koetser and Thedogooder, agree with you both, just need a bit of patience between us longs, we have suffered enough.... |
I can see in 2 years time the underlying profit being around 100m. Especially if last year was around £45 million and this year being around 60 to 70m |
100% agree with that koester, wouldn't surprise me if this doubles this year from the years low point...be plenty of pullbacks but we can now relax with SAGA after the latest trading statement. |
Kulvinder,
I am holding and think this time it will settle much higher. People are used to this going up and down so may take a few more days as people get out. However really this is now an absolute steal with no real reasons to worry |
Trying to push higher, but 138 seems to stop it.... |
Maybe a broker upgrade in the works |
Climbing nicely now will there be a pull back?? |
Looked at the results in detail. Although the refinance is expensive it can be paid up as the business generates cash. The fact that ocean cruise has had large increases in prices both this year and going forward mean lots of cash generated for bottom line. Same with river cruise and travel. Expect little profit for insurance in next year. But should easily be covered by cruise and travel. Expect £70 million underlying profit for 2025/2026 ( not including possible £30 million bonus). So this share price must go past the £2.00 barrier easily |
TTNY2004, hope for us holders you are right, and because it we start to see go north over the coming months. |
Yes the calculations going forward are very complex but overall should be very good |
Don't think market has fully digested the news. See a steady rise north as it does, and when results are published in April and further guidance provided a further step up. In my opinion stabilisation and turnaround now firmly in progress. |
hxxps://apple.news/A1Xv9r5XEQDOpQA17hUUGKg |
Omron,
No doubt Saga is cheap going forward. This year should be no tax due to write of stated in first half |
Also if underlying PBT is marginally ahead (call it 39m gbp) then PAT should be about £29m so EPS of 20p. On a PE of 10x should be a share price of 200p. These figures could be materially better based on the Ageas deal but no information on commissions has been released. Costs pass to Ageas and Saga receives an income stream...but of what? |
Omron,
I agree with your points. The refinancing although expensive should be viewed in the context of it falling quite rapidly over next 2 years. 610 will become 510 ( cash generation plus £42 million from AICL). Then apparently accelerating debt reduction next year. But fed up with yo yo of a share price. Bury my head and see where we are in a year. Big hurdle of debt refinance has been fixed. |
Koester - I don't think you are mad. If you assume ebitda is 116m gbp (same as last year) and net debt is 610m (slightly lower than 614m at interim) then Saga currently trades on 6.75x ebitda. I believe this should be at least 8x (especially after material financing uncertainty has now been removed) which would imply a share price of 222p.I see three issues here: 1. MCap of 175m gbp too small to attract institutional investors. 2. The company announced in the RNS that the new debt cost is 675bps over SONIA which would be 11.5% all in but the trading update talked of 7.6% - confusing. 3. The company has not yet issued any information about commission rates going forwards on the Ageas deal making it impossible to work out a proforma forecast. |
Saga share price has history of going on big runs…positive & negative. Can see this trading update being a catalyst for another big run northwards..last decent run Northwards got us to 180 before running out of steam |
Looking forward the debt is going to significantly reduce and all sides of business are profitable. No significant debt issues. But this share is a yo yo. Decided to top up. Not sure if I am mad |
As good as we could have hoped for. Debt will reduce significantly over next 2 years |
Excellent trading update.Ahead of expectations profitability.For any naysayers on whether the corporate debt could be refinanced this has been announced that this has been successfully refinanced. |
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