Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 20:45

2 days after I mention Glassdoor reviews being poor, a 5* review appears.. saying things are improving in the right direction..

That's handy timing... ;-)


sikhthetech - 29 Jan 2017 - 20:22:48 - 2986 of 3056 RHYTHMONE - new Name, new Beginning??? - RTHM
Glassdoor reviews from last week...26th Jan

"Shady marketing job with solid benefits"

Pros
- Frequent outings and lunches on company dime
- Great benefits
- 401K Matched
Cons
- Shady practices have NOT stopped
- High turnover combined with frequent layoffs leads to low morale
- Reputation with others in the industry will not make your resume look any better
Advice to Management
Turn a profit before hiring additional employees.

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 01/2/2017 19:13

Pleasing to see they have in-app traffic. It's a start and where the money is. Let's hope they get the transparency score up.

[1gw] 01/2/2017 19:05

Low on transparency in-app and still relatively low on the invalid traffic metrics on the global indices.
But they're in the rankings and presumably fine-tuning the systems to try to do better.

[fieldhouse] 01/2/2017 18:56

Why so low with the transparency score.
I thought that was what they were good at.!!

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 01/2/2017 18:53

That's an encouraging start to see r1 making traction on the in-app.

[1gw] 01/2/2017 18:02

Pixalate updated for November and December.

R1 at no. 3 in December for US and International on the global index.

R1 breaks into the top 10 for the mobile in-app index (#7 Nov, #9 Dec).

[1gw] 01/2/2017 14:25

STT - "Now i now why you're recently been targeting me.. neutral posters, especially from Petk..."

Does your paranoia know no bounds? If you look at footy's flag counter you will see his thread has had a grand total of 4 visits from Canada, the last one being on 29th December.

[1gw] 01/2/2017 13:49

Nice try stt, but doesn't really stand scrutiny, does it?

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 13:27

Anyway enough of answering 1gw one sided attacks...I'm sure neutral posters would prefer to see all sides, bull and bear points, the opportunities as well as headwinds...It's their money after all...Risk/reward...

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 13:18

Jw, look at top posts.. I'm famous... 10 votes up... multi ids...lol...

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 13:15

Jw, lol..Isn't it strange the timing of these attacks..Perk deal completed, neutral posters looking in..

[jwoolley] 01/2/2017 13:11

Lol...Oh the joy's of the advfn bb's...

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 13:08

1gw, lol...Did you actually read the posts..doesn't look like it...They question whether the hype that 'positively' slanted posters are shouting from the rooftops would be reflected in the results.. you obviously (deliberately) missed the '??''in the posts and mention of 'excuses'..I've been here years and have seen all the hype but not backed up by the results..only excuses...Now i now why you're recently been targeting me.. neutral posters, especially from Petk...lol...

[1gw] 01/2/2017 12:51

Great STT. So for the avoidance of doubt can you just confirm that the following sequence of posts (relevant extracts pasted below) was designed by you just to try to set up unrealistic expectations in readers' minds so that they would likely be disappointed when the full-year results come out?


sikhthetech 16 Jan '17 - 09:47 - 2755 of 3047 0 0
...Given their comments, fy revenues??? > $200m?? or will they come up with some other excuse...

sikhthetech 16 Jan '17 - 10:41 - 2765 of 3046 0 0
gustaf, so the fy figures should back it up... shouldn't they?
H1 was $80m, with Perk, new global partners, 5 new EU markets (50% increase on 9)... H2 should be substantially higher than H1... $200m???

sikhthetech 16 Jan '17 - 12:42 - 2773 of 3046 0 1
Yes, so add in Perk revenue as well as the new markets (50% increase in markets) and global partners...
The fy revenue ... approx $200m??
So they shouldn't have any reasons for falling below $200m.. should they??

sikhthetech 1 Feb '17 - 09:59 - 3039 of 3047 0 1
...in the interests of transparency and for neutral posters (current, newbies(ex Perk)), as amt asks, surely, with quantcast's huge increase, a BIG uplift in revenue???
are you going to upgrade your fy revenue forecast to $200m++++... if not, why not..

[football] 01/2/2017 12:46

who said that?

It's one way to get revenues above $200m for fy2017... but at what cost??

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 12:42

Your views about what info neutral posters might read... it now makes sense your 'positive' slant on the CFO leaving and Tosca selling 2.5m...Well at least you admitted Quantcast has no correlation with revenue...

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 01/2/2017 12:38

So you're not expecting 200$m for full year then STT?

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2017 12:36

1gw, my point about $200m has been to highlight that there is no correlation between quantcast and comcast rankings and fy expectations...You have now also confirmed that point in your post...Therefore it also answers amt's question...Doesn't it...

[1gw] 01/2/2017 12:13

River & Mercantile increase?

While we have had holdings notices from RG and Toscafund post the Perk dilution, we haven't heard anything from R&M.

R&M declared 20.4m shares, 5.04% as of 12th July 2016 and I believe that as an OEIC, R&M has to declare if it goes under 5% or over 10%.

With the current 494m shares in issue, 20.4m shares would be only about 4.1% and R&M would need about 24.7m shares to remain over 5%.

Given the time elapsed since the Perk dilution it looks to me as though R&M must have bought enough shares since July to remain over 5% of the enlarged share capital.

[leluot3] 01/2/2017 11:43

Tosca topping up?

You mean they just bought 300 shares!

[1gw] 01/2/2017 11:07

STT - your turn. Please can you provide some backup (i.e. proper analysis) to support your repeated suggestions that R1 should be doing $200m+ revenue this year?

[1gw] 01/2/2017 11:03

And on revenue, I see no reason to change my 16th January post below, which estimated about $170m full-year revenue, excluding Perk. In my opinion, while the Quantcast evidence of improving reach is good news, it is far less important to full-year revenue delivery than the programmatic fill rate, which dropped from 0.62% in financial Q2 to 0.29% in Q3. I don't see how anyone outside the company can reasonably estimate whether this is going to rebound significantly or fall further, so there is a big possible range of 4Q revenues in my opinion. It is not impossible that they could do $200m including Perk, but I think that would be an exceptionally good result.

As before, this is my analysis only, to promote discussion. Errors excepted. No advice intended.

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1gw 16 Jan '17 - 10:07 - 2758 of 3042 4 0 Edit

On the whole I think the update is pretty good, although I would have hoped for a bit more programmatic revenue given they had a full quarter of international revenue this time.

It looks to me as though they are on track for a return to full year revenue growth (excluding Perk) which I think is excellent considering they must have exited FY16 at a run-rate well below the full year $166m reported (given all the stuff closed down through FY16).

The YoY growth rate in programmatic is showing a great trend:
26% Q1 (i.e. Q1 FY17 26% higher than Q1 FY16)
62% Q2
78% Q3
and this seems to be showing the programmatic growth is not only being sustained but improved (as a counter to those who argue that because it is "early days" the growth rate isn't really that impressive).

To get to a full-year revenue number, excluding Perk, I did the following:

$90.2m year-to-date programmatic revenue (multiplying out volume, fill rate, price)
1.47 ratio of total rev to prog rev (1H results $81m total vs $55m prog)
$132.6m estimate of year-to-date total revenue (90.2 x 1.47)
$51.9m estimate of 3Q total revenue
$38.9m estimate of 4Q total revenue*
$171m estimate of FY17 total revenue, excluding Perk

* Brian said on the 1H call that "Historically, between [calendar] Q4 and Q1 anything from 20% to 30%, even 40% drop in revenue." For the financial Q4 revenue estimate I have taken 25% i.e. the mid-point of the first range (75% x $51.9m).

I wish they would have updated their guidance to something more than just "a return to full year profitability" (by which I am pretty sure they mean full year positive adjusted EBITDA) given their 1H beat on expectations and 3Q in line with previously upgraded expectations. I put this down to a mix of conservatism and a lack of trust in their own near-term forecasts given the volatility of the programmatic metrics (esp. fill rate and price).

My analysis only, to promote discussion. Errors excepted. No advice intended.

[barkboo] 01/2/2017 10:52

Off Piste - Britvic over a £1 up in less than two months.....anyone seen this ramper make a single post on any of those threads? lol

Just the single ID for me - I dont need to play games when I have scaffolders, and I dont need to resort to a dishonest strategy!

[1gw] 01/2/2017 10:52

Quantcast - by special request.

R1's Quantcast US monthly people stat appears to be fairly cyclical with the number moving broadly in a range between about 150m and 200m. I have pasted below a post from July when we were up near the top and we have had one more peak since then before the current one.

194.6m 30 days to 21st April 2016 [peak]
160.5m 30 days to 9th June 2016 [trough]
196.0m 30 days to 13th July 2016 [peak]
175.7m 30 days to 23rd August 2016 [trough]
197.4m 30 days to 21st September 2016 [peak]
146.9m 30 days to 4th December 2016 [trough]
195.9m 30 days to 30th January 2017 [current]

So the current peak is nothing out of the ordinary over the last year. And indeed we are again sandwiched between the same 2 competitors as we were back in July with remarkably similar stats to that time:

10-Sovrn--196.1m monthly US people
11-R1-----195.9m
12-OpenX--194.5m

I think my conclusion from July still stands. It's nice to see R1 moving up the chart, and it would be great to see them breach 200m US monthly people, but the important thing is that R1 maintains a decent overall US reach, which they appear to be doing.

errors excepted - I may have missed the odd day and not caught the exact peak or trough.
-------------------------------------------

1gw 16 Jul '16 - 15:38 - 738 of 4585 2 0 Edit

Quantcast:

9--Sovrn--196.0m monthly US people
10-R1-----195.9m
11-OpenX--195.0m

So now a whisker away from 9th place.

The big picture here I think is that the monthly US people metric is relatively volatile for R1 but that R1 has been in a steady uptrend for the last month or so. To show volatility and trend, consider the following R1 stats for US monthly people:

194.6m 30 days to 21st April 2016 [previous peak]
160.5m 30 days to 9th June 2016 [last trough]
196.0m 30 days to 13th July 2016 [most recent peak]

This compares to 221m (estimated) for google.com and 242m for Pulsepoint Progammatic Network, the top ranked individual site and network respectively. So very roughly R1 is achieving between about 70% (at the trough) and 90% (at the peak) of the current estimated reach of google.com. Which is pretty good in my opinion. It's nice to see R1 moving up the chart, but the important thing is that it maintains a decent overall US reach.