Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 22/8/2017 07:22

You must be joking - these are going to lose 50% or so!

[jonwig] 22/8/2017 07:12

I guess the share price could reach £16 (as per wilmherk) at the open, following the TS just now. But I doubt that will prove to be the bottom!

This is awful and comes just four weeks after the H1 results. Suggests they've lost control.

[topvest] 22/8/2017 07:12

Blimey what an awful RNS. All problems self inflicted by a stupid decision as well. Why have they taken so long to announce the FCA investigation given it is clearly material? Very disappointing. My remaining shares are at an effective nil cost, but I should have sold all rather than half at the top with the benefit of hindsight! These shares are going to get hammered today. Clearly the news has leaked over the last week or two as well.

[fenners66] 22/8/2017 00:02

That's a significant fall on greater than average volume.

[wllmherk] 21/8/2017 17:36

I bought a tranche at £19 perhaps not the best timed purchase I have made, however, I intend to top up if we reach £16, the balance sheet looks reasonable and other parts of the business are doing very well. Hopefully management will get a grip of the credit part and this should rise accordingly, I will be really happy if the dividend is maintained.

wllm

[minerve] 21/8/2017 16:51

No. I don't think so. FTSE 100 trackers sell. FTSE 250 trackers buy. Many would probably not hold this already anyway (guessing) because its weighting is now noise level on a FTSE 100 tracker. Trade off between tracking error and disproportionate costs.

[andyj] 21/8/2017 16:38

I will be topping up soon. I do wonder if a lot of the selling is funds exiting given the demotion.

[gwatson56] 21/8/2017 16:08

Top up at £17.53 for me, expect Woodford to have some comment on this given his latest purchase in the mid 20's.

[the dark horse] 21/8/2017 15:57

Doesn't look like we'll get the bounce as it just fell through the 61.8% retrace like the proverbial knife through butter ! £15 might happen sooner than I ever thought and £13.60 is next possible Fib support.

[laffin] 21/8/2017 12:56

From Short tracker; disclosures in PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC


Fund manager % short Change Date changed/created
AQR Capital Management, LLC 1.01% ↑ 0.11% 2017-08-08
Lansdowne Partners (UK) LLP 2.19% ↓ -0.10% 2016-04-12
Systematica Investments Limited 0.50% 2017-08-09
Total 3.70%

Hardly a significant short position?


Top 10 most shorted
CARILLION PLC 22.6%
OCADO GROUP PLC 17.4%
WOOD GROUP (JOHN) PLC 15.5%
WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS 15.5%

TELIT COMMUNICATIONS PLC 13.12%
DEBENHAMS PLC 13.10%
TULLOW OIL PLC 11.75%
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC 10.76%
PETROFAC LTD 8.67%
PETS AT HOME GROUP PLC 8.46%


PROVIDENT FINANCIAL is No 45 on list just below The AA (3.85%)

[the dark horse] 21/8/2017 12:44

we are all guessing wad but it is interesting to note that today it has hit the 61.8% retrace of the move from its 2008 low to the 2015 high. That could offer some resistance and produce a short term bounce but after that there is little until the 78.6% retrace at £13.60 to stop its fall. From the Times article it is clear that some big players are betting against the recent change to its MO.

[wad collector] 21/8/2017 12:36

I don't know where the share price is headed either.

[the dark horse] 21/8/2017 10:27

Agreed fenners but also a pointer to the current economic environment as people are borrowing more at usury rates in a desperate bid to maintain their living standards whilst their real incomes fall. It concerns me that we have another huge debt bubble set to burst and show that even the excess of 10years ago have not been sorted just brushed aside by the creation of money by governments across the globe.

I love the quote I saw the other day that "In 2008 the banks went bust at our expense but next time we will go bust at their expense ;-)

[minerve] 21/8/2017 10:22

My switch into IMB is looking good - at this point.

[fenners66] 21/8/2017 09:40

This is (seemingly) becoming a lesson in how to mismanage a successful company.

[wllmherk] 20/8/2017 09:13

If there is a further profit warning and dividend cut the CEO will fall on his sword, this could be a positive depending on who takes over,

wllm

[dendria] 20/8/2017 08:09

Sunday Times – hedgies expect further profit warning & dividend cut:

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/hedge-funds-stalk-doorstep-lender-vvhq7sw2m

[fenners66] 18/8/2017 22:23

The share price is trying its best to make my ill timed sale at 2150 ( 2 years ago) - look like a smart move....
he who waits Rodney .....

[stewart64] 18/8/2017 19:50

Well I bought back in again at £18.47, but will operate a stop quickly if it starts falling Monday.

[wad collector] 18/8/2017 17:10

You will have to wait until February for those ; a lot could happen to the share price before then.
We all tend to be guilty of confirmation bias and I, like many PIs, have a habit of failing to sell a falling stock. The pros are better at that , especially when they can make a commission!
This has come down almost half in the last 2 yrs . It doesn't mean it cannot go further of course , but the fundamentals look very different. Had my fingers burned badly by the continuing poor performance of IPF (It's former sister) so will be aghast if this declines much further.

[fenners66] 18/8/2017 14:49

The yield looks nice - but will dividend be sustained.
I would like to see the full year results first

[losos] 18/8/2017 12:24

The Dark Horse - "accept that holders tend to wear rose tinted specs ;)"

Yes, that is always a possibility, don't know which way I'll go but agree it's not looking good right now.

[the dark horse] 17/8/2017 17:26

Locos - I respect your opinion and you may be right but ask yourself whether you would be a long term buyer right now and if you aren't adding then accept that holders tend to wear rose tinted specs ;)

Me I see continuing issues with the loan book and the dividend gives me little comfort as once a Ftse type company starts offering over 7% you can almost smell the future cut to "preserve......"

Little apology for being a cynic but moving from personal touch to call centre style doesn't give e confidence that loan payments will be made and the people who know this industry say that once a loan has missed 5 payments it won't rectify itself.

A short term bounce in the share price won't change my view which is that 6-12 months from now could see this is serious trouble

[wllmherk] 17/8/2017 16:39

saw wad kicking about and decided to join the party. I remember holding these a few years back wad at around half the price they are today, to say I sold too quick would be an understatement :)

wllm