Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[theborn] 28/6/2022 14:41

A colleague who is also an investor in PFG asked some questions to PFG via email to be addressed at the AGM tomorrow. PFG kindly provided responses to these. Obviously, none of this information is market sensitive but given some responses address points often raised on these PFG notice boards I thought I would share for the benefit of fellow shareholders: q1) Appreciate purpose of AGM is to approve or reject specific actions. As some of those actions relate to dilution of the share base the current shareprice, about to dip below £2, cannot be ignored. I would appreciate an indication from management as to performance during the current year and their view on what must be done to address the falling share price. - a1) We published our first quarter update in May, covering the trading period from January to March, and we plan to release our half year results at the end of July this year. This will cover the period from Jan to June 2022. I am unable to provide a more wholesome trading update outside of those updates. However, you will see in our first quarter update that asset quality across the business remained high and the underlying credit demand from customers was strong. We have no current plans to dilute the share base. The Board and I share your disappointment with the share price. However, with such an uncertain economic backdrop at present in the UK and high levels of volatility across equity markets, we must focus on making sure that we support our customers by providing them with the assistance they need and managing the things within our control. q2) Linked to above, shareholders who have stuck with PFG deserve to know what management expectations actually are for this year and future years. Trading updates often refer to 'in line with management expectations' but I've never seen these expectations explicitly set out at the start of the year? I appreciate analysts have their views, but if PFG are linking management views to a particular analyst consensus this needs to be made clear. I want to know what EPS and divi target is for current year and 3 year look ahead. - a2) I am unable to provide you with what our internal budget and forecast models say about the financial direction of the company. References to “in-line with management’s expectations” are designed to provide shareholders and the market with an element of comfort that the external perception of how we are performing as a business matches that of the stock market. q3) Update on provisioning and portfolio performance in the current high inflationary environment. - a3) Please refer to our first quarter trading statement on our website for the most up to date information. q4) Update on the personal loan pilot which has been referred to a lot in past 18 months. Is this now delivering positive returns?- a4) As stated within our first quarter trading statement, the personal loans pilot phase will be assessed at the end of June and an update will be provided end July.

[theborn] 01/6/2022 14:58

I do sympathise with what you are saying, as the 'in-line with management expectations' does indeed get reeled out a lot. And there probably is still a lack of trust around events of the past few years. We'll know more with the half year update which should arrive in c.6 weeks. However, my argument is based on the current share price in relation to how the company sits today. This share was trading at £5+ even in the peak of the PFG meltdown and is today trading at 250p despite an analyst consensus of FY22 earnings of c.40p ps. I'm not saying this is a £10 share today, but if the price started with a £4 there won't be too many people arguing the financials don't support it. It's undervalued, and in my opinion significantly.

[1cutandrun] 01/6/2022 13:40

I've read the recent posts on here and have to say this. Please read my post of 11th Aug 2021. I have said many times that PFG are really experienced at writing updates and reports. Positives are highlighted and negatives are either left out or glossed over, so you have to take note what is not mentioned. The 19th May update, is it really good? In-line with management's expectation. Can someone please tell me what their expectation is on customer growth? New customer bookings increased by approximately 25% year-on-year, this sounds good, a positive, but did the customer base increase, I doubt it as they haven't mentioned it and Vanquis keep losing customers. In their last report they stated they had cleared out the dead wood as an excuse to cover up the customer loss. Vanquis has always had dead wood and they still lost customers. I stated in my post 11th Aug, if they don't increase their customer base they will have big problems and that's exactly what has happened. Yes they can make profit and pay a dividend but they need customer growth for the company to expand and that is not the case at the moment.

[theborn] 01/6/2022 09:49

This misalignment to market is starting to become a farce. If you plot a simple 6 month chart comparing Ftse to PFG, PFG is currently down 30% and ftse is up 7%. That's effectively a 40% fall vs market despite positive trading updates and buy ratings and pricing upgrades. Algos keep hammering this share. It's due a huge catch up. It has to be due in my opinion.

[scemer] 19/5/2022 17:25

Have to agree theborn we'll tidy business now going forward all to play for expect rising dividends and share price

[theborn] 19/5/2022 09:38

Positive trading update this morning. Once again the overall market as dragged pfg down. £5+ share trading at £2.30, thanks to algo trading. Shore Cap reiterated buy with target >£5. Barclays overweight with target £4.20. Something has to happen on this share soon IMO.

[don777] 11/5/2022 11:53

Aberforth Partners LLP inceased holdings. very wise and timing very well.

[gregsc] 07/4/2022 13:01

12p dividend. ex date 21st April, payment 20th May.

[wad collector] 29/3/2022 11:15

Glad my pessimism was ill founded, almost up to a tenth of my buying price now!

[wad collector] 04/3/2022 16:28

Oh dear , Prov share price plunging , this looks familiar....

[1cutandrun] 27/1/2022 10:48

Hello my friend. Good to hear from you. I think NSF is a dinosaur. I was talking to someone I know who works for Loans at Home which is part of NSF. Apparently quite a few ex PPC employees are now working for this company. I asked, how were they managing to collect payments from the doorstep. The reply was, I don't collect payment at the customers house, I phone them for payments as they all have cards. The whole point of doorstep lending is face to face contact. Looks like this business is a dying breed. The FCA and compliance is a killer for a company. Prudential found this out with the SIB. Execution only applications were introduced, to stop being fined. Apply online, no advice given and therefore, no mis selling. Having reps working for a company leaves them open to any accusations made by customers. Also, reps carrying money is a health and safety issue. In a nutshell, the coffin lid is open for doorstep lending and reps will eventually be buried. PFG had no option and had to close PPC down for these reasons.

[superiorshares] 17/1/2022 03:32

Icutandrun are you still about ? It's ...SS... here . Was hoping to get your opinion now on NSF Regards to you .

[bbarry8] 13/1/2022 22:08

Should be, it's cheap. Think clean accounts, ex CCD, will draw interest again. Cash machine.

[deadly] 13/1/2022 17:10

No interest here? - The Group's trading performance for the fourth quarter of 2021 continued to track ahead of management expectations driven by favourable macroeconomic conditions and demand for credit from customers. As previously indicated, the Board intends to declare an ordinary dividend of approximately 30% of adjusted ongoing earnings (1) in respect of FY'21 and anticipates providing guidance for a longer-term, progressive dividend policy with the FY'21 results.

[wad collector] 22/12/2021 12:59

Bit of a sustained share price recovery today ; only news I can find is the writing off of the Satsuma and Home Credit outstanding loans on Monday. Can't see much good about that for Prov!

[jimbobs147] 25/11/2021 19:30

Schroders increased their holding this week.

[wad collector] 25/11/2021 15:18

sharp movement upwards today , £4 soon , wonder why?

[jimbobs147] 22/10/2021 11:38

For sure, strange how it bounced when they revised the update to say the dividend would be paid out of net profit and not gross profit as first stated?

[russ1983] 22/10/2021 11:24

very strange how no reaction yesterday morning but now up 10% since with another nice rise today, should be way higher than this with dividends to be restored

[bbarry8] 22/10/2021 10:49

Or just a delayed reaction

[wad collector] 21/10/2021 18:56

I read the first version of the TU , and thought it rather vague to suggest a future dividend payment based on unstated profits. And then I saw the updated version of the update and they are slightly more precise about the vague intention. "If it turns out that we make a lot of money this year then you can have some of it"

[jimbobs147] 21/10/2021 12:43

Good news already in the share price Barry.

[bbarry8] 21/10/2021 10:07

No idea how this isn't up by more today