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[1917again] 31/12/2023 18:49

"even if all overseas assets of Russia are confiscated to spend on weapons for Ukraine"

meanreverter, we will find out soon when all the 350 bn is seized

It's cost the West only 100 bn (nato budget 1500 bn year) to wipe out 50% + of Russian army equipment so another 350 bn on military equipment for Ukraine should finish the job

[loganair] 31/12/2023 16:43

It seems to me reasonable to say there is going to be NO political collapse in Russia however a very high likelihood that by the end of 2024 Zelensky will no longer be president of the Ukraine.

Also unlike Germany did in WW2, Russia are not going to overstretch themselves territorywise as they did at the beginning of the conflict.

It seems to me the strategy of Russia is to just keep grinding away at Ukrainian manpower until there is either a peace settlement of the Ukraine has none left.

Losing 20,000 dead a month with a further circa 20,000 severely wounded and therefore can never fight again the Ukraine need to find circa 40,000 replacements each and every month just to keep their army the same size.

And what replacements are the Ukrainians managing to find? 50/60 year old men, 16/17 year old boys, women and the mentally ill.

Every man in the Ukraine between the age of 18 and 60 is now counted as either military with a weapon or military without a weapon, there are no longer any men of military age in the Ukraine that are counted as being civilian.

[meanreverter] 31/12/2023 15:53

masergt (post 21275): The solidification of the principles of justice in law ultimately strengthens justice. Once we demand “Forget the law; justice requires us to act directly ...”, we are back to My Justice against Your Justice, which in turn degenerates to Might is Right, namely pre-civilization.

Every villain in history claims to act in the name of justice; naturally, it is always his version of justice. Putin, in particular, claims to be enacting justice for the majority ethnic Russians in parts of Ukraine and that the Ukrainian nationalists in opposition to them were [a certain political movement]: a supposed trump card that justifies any crime.

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I am not as optimistic as you in believing that the Ukraine war can be stopped, even if all overseas assets of Russia are confiscated to spend on weapons for Ukraine. The war has settled into an attritional stalemate, in which offensives fizzle out with heavy loss and little territorial gain. The Russian military bungled its initial operations but, as in World War 2, is capable of learning from its mistakes. Unlike Germany, which lost both world wars through lack of resources and manpower, Russia has big reserves of both — to fight a smaller war. Ukraine has strong economic allies but limited manpower. In my opinion, only political collapse, in Russia or Ukraine, could end this war in the foreseeable future.

[loganair] 31/12/2023 14:08

In the first 2 months of the U.S. financial year government spending on its national debt is over $20bln higher than on its military spending.

Even the U.S. Treasury themselves are now saying by 2030 the U.S. national debt will be $50 trillion.

[loganair] 31/12/2023 13:47

BBC Russian Service - At least 40,599 confirmed military deaths from 24 Feb 2022 to 27 Dec 2023 of which 2,989 were officers.

BBC Russian Service say this is most probably 2/3rds of the real number of Russian military deaths, which means the real number of Russian military deaths stand somewhere between 60,000 and 65,000.

BBC Russian Service - Total number of Russian military deaths during 2022 were around 15,500 therefore, it’s clear that the Russian forces incurred heavier losses this year compared to the first year of the invasion.

[xxxxxy] 31/12/2023 12:04

Words of Hope..,there are still some thinking, intelligent, brave Russians.This will not end until Putin and his Gangsters are in the Hague Court.

[xxxxxy] 31/12/2023 12:03

Two Russian men have been jailed for reciting anti-war poems at a public reading in central Moscow.Artyom Kamardin, 33, and Yegor Shtovba, 23, were found guilty of "inciting hatred" against Russian troops and "calling for activities threatening state security" after the recitals in September 2022.The pair will serve seven years and five years and six months behind bars respectively. Both had pleaded not guilty.The pair are the latest to be caught up in a sweeping crackdown on dissent in Russia as it wages war in Ukraine.... Daily Telegraph....

[loganair] 31/12/2023 10:42

When you get the likes of the New York Times now reporting how the Ukrainian army recruiters are dragging, not 20 and 30 year olds but 50 year olds, 60 year olds and severely mentally ill men off the streets and with virtually no training throwing them straight into the front line trenches show's you how bad the situation really is for the Ukraine.

[masergt] 30/12/2023 22:41

meanreverter - #21273. Not sure how you can agree with everything I said yet want to go through the endless wranglings of international lawyers, cross jurisdictional courts, supreme appeal courts and the change of governments and policies that are bound to happen during the years (a decade or more?) that it would take to get an internationally agreed verdict (if you ever could get such a verdict!) whilst the genocide and destruction continues unabated. The UN, World Bank, G7, EU are just puffed up talking shops full of over paid gasbags. They can't even agree a statement on Russia's actions let alone do anything to cause an immediate halt.

Justice not law should be, imo, the foundation of civilisation. Justice is the obvious and natural arbiter of right and wrong as seen by the common people of the world in which we live - otherwise known as common sense. Law is enacted by biased elite politicians who feel so above it as to be free to not bother with it and adjudicated by judges so divorced from today's common people as to be kept apart from the populous in secluded government provided accommodation.

The law they administer is based on precedent often centuries old which has little or no bearing in this world. Archaic laws exist, including many concerning property rights of which you seem particularly keen, which are frankly ludicrously unjust yet still sit on the statute books and are to be relied on in court. How many times has a known and often repeat felon walked free from penalty or recourse due to some technical loophole or prosecutorial inadequacy only to repeatedly offend again? I'm not just talking shoplifting here, I include grievous violence against a person up to and including murder. How many times have you heard a judge or a magistrate declare themselves unable to jail or pass an appropriately strong sentence to try to protect the public from such heinous crimes because they are prevented from doing so by the constrictions set out in outdated sentencing law?

Where is the justice in that? What has happened to the fairness expected within a civilised society which you seem to think can only exist under such anachronistic laws?

Law and justice are two related but distinct concepts. Law is the system of rules and regulations that governs the actions of individuals and institutions. Law is created and enforced by the governmental authorities and is supposed to be based on the idea of justice, ie.,justice precedes and procures law. Justice is the principle of fairness, equality, and morality that guides the administration of law. Justice is based on the ethical and moral values of the society and aims to protect the rights and dignity of all people, not on the whims and vagaries of a closed upper echelon of society which are all too frequently subject to the satisfactory or otherwise digestion of the previous evening's food and wine.

"Once we seize the assets of another state, we are effectively declaring war on that state." "... arbitrary expropriation violates the implicit contract we made in accepting a state's funds as bank deposits, payment for bonds, etc." Rubbish.

Once another state ignores all international laws and treaties that it has signed and ratified and declares by its indiscriminate genocidal actions no interest whatsoever in the human rights of another nation's people and infrastructure then surely, in any right thinking person's mind, it loses any rights or protection it may seek to claim under such aforementioned laws and treaties. It is a simple fact, no matter what the money grabbing lawyers might say. Russia is in breach. It has gone outside the law so the justice on which that law was based must now prevail - and by force if necessary whilst there is still chance. And that is the message that China should receive loud and clear.

Please don't try and argue two wrongs don't make a right. Try arguing the case for righting a wrong that should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. Using embargoed ill-gotten cash and assets against Russia, to stop this war now, and to rebuild a devastated Ukraine is the right thing to do. Justice will have been seen to have been done. Sod all inadequate, interminable and unjust law.

[1917again] 30/12/2023 21:38

You are exactly right masergt

The fugitive war criminal child trader Putin is already charging 50% on Russia exits. So seizing 50% of the 350 bn is fair for a start

It's cost the West only 100 bn to wipe out 50% + of Russian army equipment so another 100 bn will finish the job

Wall street at record high and the new cash will help nicely, lovely jubbly for trend investors. Meanwhile China shorts gone lovely jubbly too for trend investors

[meanreverter] 30/12/2023 14:32

masergt: I agree with everything you say in your post 21259 except the last sentence: “Humanitarian justice should take precedence over the law”.

First, the rule of law — especially, respect for the property rights of people or institutions we don't like — is the foundation of civilization. Once we seize the assets of another state, we are effectively declaring war on that state.

Second, arbitrary expropriation violates the implicit contract we made in accepting a state's funds as bank deposits, payment for bonds, etc. It tells all nations: “If you trade with us on anything but a cash-and-carry basis, we may steal any of your assets in our custody”. Do we really want to send that message to China, in particular?

[xxxxxy] 30/12/2023 12:06

Russia........Weafer believes the prognosis is not good. "You could very well end up with a situation at the end of the decade where the economy is stagnant, Russia is even more reliant on commodity exports, and you have a full-blown demographic crisis where the workforce is shrinking rapidly."So to say that Russia has survived the crisis is incorrect. It has managed to stabilise the situation. But a crisis will unfold in terms of demographics, economic stagnation and lack of diversification over the next five or six or seven years if the current situation with regards to sanctions and investments is not reversed.".... Daily Telegraph

[geckotheglorious] 30/12/2023 10:51

1knocker

There is no Israeli genocide. Nor is there Russian genocide either..

[loganair] 30/12/2023 10:25

The latest reports coming out of Gaza say the true number of Palestinians killed by the Israelis maybe as many as 29,000, most of who are women and children - just think what would have been said and done if the Russians had done the same somewhere like Kiev or anywhere else in the Ukraine.

[loganair] 30/12/2023 09:50

From 2014 to February 2022 the Ukrainians killed circa 14,000 innocent civilians in their bombing of the Donbass.

[xxxxxy] 30/12/2023 08:30

That is the modern, grown up approach in the Civilised world.Russia is Uninvestible.

[zangdook] 30/12/2023 02:25

Arguably the Russians are trying to prevent genocide - Ukraine was bombing Donbass for eight years trying to kill ethnic Russians before Russia lost patience and came in to protect them. And Ukraine cut off the water supply to Crimea.

[1knocker] 30/12/2023 00:54

We live in a mad world. By what contorted logic is it possible to condemn Russian genocide and at the same time support Israeli genocide on a much larger scale?

Indeed, the Ukrainian casualties caused by Russia are at least collateral to the Russian objective (winning and holding territory) whereas the casualties and destruction caused by Israel ARE the objective - wanton death, injury, and destruction for their own sake.

In the article quoted at post 21262 one could substitute 'Netanyahu' for 'Putin' and 'Israel' for 'Russia' and the only error in the revised article would be that the stated number killed would then be far too low.

[zangdook] 29/12/2023 23:00

Well done South Africa.

[xxxxxy] 29/12/2023 21:58

And this isn't over until Putin and his Gangsters are in the Hague Court.

[xxxxxy] 29/12/2023 21:56

Joe Biden has called on Congress to take action so that weapons and vital air defence systems can be sent to Ukraine, in response to a record number of Russian airstrikes.The US president labelled the indiscriminate Russian barrage on civilian infrastructure, which left 30 dead and more than 150 injured, a "stark reminder" of Putin's unwavering objective."He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped," Mr Biden said.To avoid Russia gaining the upper hand amid waning Western military support for Ukraine, the president urged Congress to deliver more funding for Ukraine."History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom's call," he said.Meanwhile, the UK has pledged hundreds of British-made air defence missiles to Ukraine and reaffirmed its steadfast support.... Daily Telegraph