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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymetal International Plc | POLY | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 215.00 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 215.00 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 19/2/2024 19:01 by sign1 Intragroup debt of $1.151b arose from the debt pushdown from the topco (holding company level) to subsidiary level (POLY R). As of today POLY INTL owes POLY R the said amount, while POLY R owes the external creditors $2.2b. For the avoidance of doubt: it’s not on top of $2.2b, it’s part of $2.2b. The reason why IGD isn’t reported is because IFRS uses consolidation basis for reporting. It only records the aggregate number of external liabilities, which is ~$2.4b (~2.2b in RU and ~0.2b in KZ) in our case. If we were to publish standalone KZ business accounts – only then IGD would have been visible. On consolidated basis we reported $170m of debt to external parties, because that’s how much POLY K owed and still owes to the creditors. POLY K and POLY R were never split in the accounting sense, because there’s no basis for it. Assets are still under one roof: POLY INT. Following the designation in May 23 we continued to report consolidated numbers, because that’s what IFRS requires. We added some of the reporting lines for KZ and RU for the benefit of investors to see what the country breakdown is along different lines of the i/s and b/s but the basis for reporting remained consolidated.While I understand that stated $3.7b EV of POLY R is confusing, if seen from the pov of the seller (not the buyer) the IGD of POLY K to POLY R is real, and must be extinguished. That’s why the buyer will upstream $1.479b from POLY R to POLY K, with POLY K returning $1.151b to settle IGD to POLY R and keeping the balance as cash proceeds from the sale. The difference in numbers is tax. |
Posted at 02/2/2024 18:10 by urai58 Thank you @k1ssxofxdeath for your alternative calculation. The problem is that the world will be different after February 2022: sanctions, inflation, higher energy prices, stronger tenge, problems with supply chains, problems with distribution. And this means massively higher AISC. It should also be noted that POLY usually requires a POX for processing. This is in Russia. Higher cost.The basis for an assessment is not the past. But the current EBITDA margin and net earnings are tough. The price of gold has simply not risen enough - compared to inflation. We are still getting off very well with Polymetal International. Shareholders from Petropavlovsk lost all. EVRAZ blocked for a long time. Polyus, Nornickel, Gazprom etc. ADR/GDR programs terminated. In some cases everything was lost. |
Posted at 02/2/2024 15:39 by k1ssxofxdeath "Realistically one can assume the following parameters (for residual POLY in Kazakhstan):- 475koz AuEq p.a. - Gold price $2,000/oz - Revenue 950m USD - EBITDA margin 40% - EBITDA 380m USD - Net earnings 190m USD - Dividend 95m USD, with 475m shares: 0.20 USD. - With a dividend yield of 5%, that gives a share price of $4 - and that's exactly where we are plus/minus today." Further to the above valuation, here is a basic attempt at a different valuation. 475koz pa is about 40% of Poly pre Feb 22 operations. Poly was trading around (at least) $15 at that point. If you add $2.5bn net debt then EV was $20 per share. If Poly get $3bn (per your post)_for Russian assets then that is $6 a share for $12 of historic EV value - half price basically. But that should still leave 40% of the old EV on the table which is $8 a share. If its net cash that EV should all be reflected in the equity valuation so the political risk is arguably depressing the price from $8 to $4 based on Kazakh assets alone. In other words the market is pricing in complete expropriation of Russian assets for nothing and Poly saddled with $2.5bn of debt ($5 a share). If the sale unwinds that discount then the price could double. Thoughts? KoD |
Posted at 01/2/2024 12:27 by urai58 The fog about possible future developments is slowly clearing. But as always, that takes far too long. In the meantime, Polymetal International's business and options are continually (massively) restricted. The reason is clear: Western sanctions - Russian counter-sanctions - and POLY in between.What is important now is the sale of the Russian assets. But you shouldn't expect too much. That leaves 1 potential (and likely) buyer. We know: It is a Russian buyer - and the buyer is not (currently) subject to any Western sanctions. Unfortunately, Polyus is almost certainly no longer there. What remains? @goldbugsy wrote it: ICT, the founder of Polymetal International and brother of the CEO: Alexander Nesis. At first I thought the Oman fund might have paid a premium. I don't assume that anymore. So the transaction is likely to be worth around USD 550 million. And with this 550 million USD, the Russian assets (of course including the 2 billion USD debt) could be taken over by ICT (Alexander Nesis). At the end, Polymetal International should be debt-free (currently USD 170 million). Plus an estimated $200 million in cash for 2024 investments (especially the $60 million for the POX). Plus cash to ensure ongoing operations. And perhaps there is still $100 million available for a possible dividend in 2024 (from the 2023 deal and sale): $0.20 per share. Now about possible future dividends (from financial year 2024, paid from 2025): The dividend policy will definitely be adjusted downwards. The reason is simple: Polymetall has to and wants to develop its business further. This includes possible acquisitions in Kazakhstan as well as in other Asian countries ending in (...)stan. The future profits should be used for this as a priority. Oman doesn't want dividends (now) - Oman definitely wants Polymetall to develop and expand its business in the medium term (3 to 4 years). Realistically one can assume the following parameters (for residual POLY in Kazakhstan): - 475koz AuEq p.a. - Gold price $2,000/oz - Revenue 950m USD - EBITDA margin 40% - EBITDA 380m USD - Net earnings 190m USD - Dividend 95m USD, with 475m shares: 0.20 USD. - With a dividend yield of 5%, that gives a share price of $4 - and that's exactly where we are plus/minus today. urai58 |
Posted at 14/10/2023 12:38 by loganair It seems to me reasonable to say in around a year from now, Polymetal will relist on the LSE.In the mean time the main question for UK share holders who certified their share holding in Polymetal, how will they get any dividends that Polymetal may pay. (Nesis said the company will "definitely" pay a dividend on its 2023 results. The board would discuss an interim dividend in December, depending on financial conditions and on progress with the sale of the Russian business, he said.) |
Posted at 10/8/2023 06:24 by 31337 c0d3r 10/08/2023 7:00amUK Regulatory (RNS & others) Polymetal International plc (POLY) Polymetal: Resumption of trading on AIX 10-Aug-2023 / 09:00 MSK =------------------- Release time IMMEDIATE LSE, MOEX, AIX: POLY ADR: AUCOY Date 10 August 2023 Polymetal International plc Resumption of trading on AIX Polymetal International plc (the "Company") confirms trading resumption of the Company's Ordinary shares on AIX, effective today, 10 August 2023. Further to the Re-domiciliation completion, trading in the shares of Polymetal International plc (ISIN JE00B6T5S470) has resumed on AIX today, 10 August 2023, as follows: -- Opening Auction - 11:00 -- Continuous Trading - 11:30 -- Closing Auction - 16:45 References to times in this announcement are GMT+6 (Astana time). |
Posted at 09/8/2023 13:36 by 31337 c0d3r 09/08/2023 7:00amUK Regulatory (RNS & others) Polymetal International plc (POLY) Polymetal: Q2 2023 production results 09-Aug-2023 / 09:00 MSK =------------------- Release time IMMEDIATE LSE, MOEX, AIX: POLY ADR: AUCOY Date 9 August 2023 Polymetal International plc Q2 2023 production results Polymetal International plc reports production results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023. "Q2 saw a set of solid production results supporting our full-year production guidance of 1.7 Moz of GE. The company continued to experience logistical disruptions of concentrate shipments. Management is working on establishing new transportation routes to resolve this issue by Q4 2023", said Vitaly Nesis, Group CEO of Polymetal International plc. HIGHLIGHTS -- No fatal accidents occurred among the Group's workforce and contractors in H1 2023 (consistent with H12022). Lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) among the Group's employees stood at 0.11 (0.08 in H1 2022), asthere were seven lost-time accidents mostly related to falling or being hit by an object, with none of them withinKazakhstan operations. -- Q2 gold equivalent production ("GE") grew by 22% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 423 Koz driven by increaseswithin Russian operations (Nezhda and Albazino). -- GE output for H1 was up by 3% y-o-y to 764 Koz, including 213 Koz in Kazakhstan and 551 Koz in Russia,due to the same factors as above. Polymetal reiterates its full-year production guidance of 1.7 Moz of GE (1.2 Mozin Russia and 500 Koz in Kazakhstan). -- The Company recorded a sales-production gap in Q2, notably for Kyzyl, which was a result of thepersistent railway issues at the eastward direction. It is expected to be closed by the year end as the Company isgradually switching to alternative transportation routes. -- Revenue for the reporting quarter and six months increased by 34% and 25% y-o-y to USUSD 581 and USUSD 1,315million respectively on the back of sales volumes recovery in Russia and higher metal prices. -- Net Debt reached USUSD 2.59 billion (USUSD 0.2 billion in Kazakhstan and USUSD2.39 billion in Russia) on theback of sanctions-related sales disruptions in the Russian business. |
Posted at 29/6/2023 00:48 by garycook Interactive Investor sells my Son,s POLY, after instructing them to put the shares in Certificated form. Sent this secure message 4 weeks ago, and yesterday ii sells POLY.Polymetal Certificated Withdrawal. Reply Corporate actions, dividends and IPOs 31 May 2023 Dear Sir/Madam I wish to withdraw my 250 Polymetal International plc shares into certificated form prior to your withdrawal deadline. Regards Matthew Cook RE: Polymetal Certificated Withdrawal. Reply Corporate actions, dividends and IPOs Today 08:28 Dear Mr Khan, Why have ii sold my POLY holding. When I clearly authorised a Certicated withdrawal of my 250 POLY shares.If this is not corrected I will instruct the Financial Ombusman.Regards Matthew Cook |
Posted at 15/5/2023 21:20 by loganair Polymetal International - On The Path To Restoring Shareholder Value by GoldStreetBets Research:Polymetal has announced its intention to redomicile to the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) in Kazakhstan. This is the stepping stone on the path to restoring shareholder value, by unlocking dividend payments and further corporate actions. I believe the current valuation implies a meaningful margin of safety, with a 2-4x potential upside over the next few years. Interestingly, the Russian listing on MOEX is trading at around 700 pence per share, more than three times the valuation on the LSE. I would argue that the valuation on the MOEX is the most realistic one. If anything, the Russian listing should trade at a discount, given that Russian investors holding Polymetal's shares via the NSD are unable to vote, or receive dividends. Cheap valuation, with tailwinds: Polymetal is a company with a market capitalization of $1.4 billion that is likely to generate around half a billion in FCF in 2023. Two tailwinds are also gaining strength: the ruble is weakening and gold prices are rising. After averting financial collapse last year by constricting the flow of funds out of the country via capital controls, Russia seems now inclined to let the ruble fall. A weakening ruble helps commodity exporters, but is also the result of declining energy prices and increased deficit spending. Since the majority of the company's costs are denominated in rubles, while revenues are in dollars, a weaker ruble implies higher free cash flow. In its 2023 guidance, Polymetal was assuming a RUB/USD exchange rate of 65, while today the exchange rate is around 76. A 1 RUB/USD movement in the exchange rate is approximately equivalent to a $25 million increase in FCF according to the company's disclosure. Meanwhile, gold prices are up 7% year-to-date, at around $2000 per ounce. This is well above the $1764 per ounce the company realized last year. Since every $100 per ounce increase in realized prices is roughly equivalent to a $140 million increase in FCF, we should expect very robust FCF generation during 2023, also considering that Polymetal is on-track to achieve its guidance of 1.7 million ounces per year (in line with last year's production). It should be noted that the company still has to unwind some of the accrued gold inventories from 2022. As of May 2023, based on remarks from Polymetal's CEO Vitaly Nesis during the recent Investor Briefing event, the company was still holding around 100 thousand ounces in bullion and around 120-130 gold-equivalent ounces in concentrates. This accumulated inventory is expected to be fully sold down during the year, and should also boost 2023 financial results. Risks: While the company is certainly cheap, it is also obvious that the valuation suffers from a severe discount due to geopolitical factors. I cannot emphasize enough that, while the risk/reward is, in my opinion, attractive, there remain significant sources of risk. First and foremost, there are the uncertainties related to the redomiciliation. While the company claims to have obtained all the necessary authorizations at the highest political levels and not to be violating any sanctions, it is not certain that the change of domicile will go through. It will need to be approved by shareholders, and also not be blocked by Russian authorities. There is the issue of the trade suspension and subsequent cancellation of the primary listing on the LSE. Unfortunately, the company has not managed to find a willing provider to maintain the current listing through the use of depository interests and/or the listing of global depositary receipts. This is not a surprise, since the company had already warned of this eventuality. More precisely, during the conference call, it was mentioned that there would have been willing providers, but that the new listing would then have been suspended again at the time of the jurisdictional split off of the Russian business. The board has therefore chosen not to pursue a solution destined to stay in place only temporarily. In the meantime, what will happen is that, if the redomiciliation goes through on July 17, trading on the LSE will be suspended, as the company's shares become foreign shares and cannot be traded and settled within CREST (at least, without the addition of some additional structure, such as a GDR, which will however not be in place for the reasons mentioned above). On that day, shares will become untradable, but the listing will continue to exist. The intention of the company is then to request an orderly termination of the London listing. The timeline for this further step is a bit nebulous. Termination would require the publication of an FCA-approved circular and shareholder approval. Therefore, it depends on when the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will release the circular and is conditional on shareholder approval. In any case, it cannot happen before July 17, which means that investors have more than 2 months to take care of transferring their position, if need be. The delisting from the LSE exposes investors to the risk of seeing their position liquidated by their brokers, if brokers are unable or unwilling to hold the Kazakh shares in their name. While this risk can be removed simply by either transferring the shares to any of a number of brokers that can hold the AIFC listing (such as Halyk Finance, Freedom Finance, or Wood&Co; the latter one offers only custody), or converting them to certified shares, it is still an inconvenience. In addition, unless the broker has access to the AIFC, the position will be untradable. It should be emphasized that this is a temporary solution. In fact, the intention after the redomiciliation is to split off the Russian business (POLY-R), while the Kazakh business (POLY-K) will be relisted on the LSE. POLY-K will have no association whatsoever with Russia. As a fully independent company domiciled in Kazakhstan, unless Kazakhstan also falls under Western sanctions in the future. The issue remains about POLY-R after the spin-off. Russian shareholders will be able to receive dividends, but Western shareholders will not under the current sanctions. POLY-R will be listed on MOEX, which means that Western shareholders will also not be able to sell. POLY-R may receive an alternative listing. For example, Rusal is listed in Hong Kong and is able to pay dividends even under the current sanctions, but it is unclear whether POLY-R will manage to be listed there. In other words, POLY-R is intended to concentrate in itself all the Russia-related risks, leaving POLY-K free to re-rate. Crucially, the current valuation already assigns no value to POLY-R at all and implies at least a 50% discount on POLY-K, so despite the uncertainties regarding the value of POLY-R to Western investors, the margin of safety remains meaningful. Conclusion: In my opinion, Polymetal is not a trade. Other sell-offs are possible on low volume, especially if some positions get liquidated after the delisting. Polymetal is instead a buy-and-hold speculation for at least a couple of years. It is a bet that the management's strategy will work out, with optionality due to rising gold prices and a weakening ruble. The recent sell-off is probably motivated by fear, uncertainty and doubt regarding the change of domicile and subsequent delisting from the LSE. Nonetheless, I believe the company has been very transparent in its communication. There is even a dedicated webpage and a dedicated address for inquiries (redom@polymetalinte To summarize, if an investor desires to sell already (after all, the price has already almost tripled from the lows), he is advised to move his position to a broker integrated with the AIFC. If not, he should only make sure not to get liquidated, by engaging with his stockbroker and clarifying whether the stockbroker can continue to hold the Kazakh listing in his name. If not, he should transfer his shares to a broker who does, or convert them to paper certificates. In both cases, dividends can be paid. Many investors may consider Polymetal too risky at the moment, or be unsure whether Western shareholders will be able to realize the value implied by the current valuation. My belief is that the current strategy has a high chance of going through, and that value will also be returned to Western shareholders, given the commitment to resume dividend payments as soon as possible. |
Posted at 15/5/2023 21:03 by loganair Polymetal - Relisting Is A Buying Opportunity (Rating Upgrade) by Tim Worstall:Summary: There will be many who don't want to do this as Polymetal will end up on the Kazakh stock exchange. However, I see the relist and re-domiciliation as a buying opportunity. This might not be the solution all want, but given reality, it seems to be the optimal one available. The problem becomes that those three different markets have now become detached from each other. MOEX (i.e. Moscow) price is now 660 roubles, which is about £7. The London Quote, POLY, is £2.50 at the time of writing. Almaty follows London very closely. The reason for Polymetal's low current price: Now, it's entirely possible to think that Polymetal's share price has taken a shellacking because assets in Russia, military operations, who knows what Putin is going to confiscate next? My own view is that anything that has survived this far isn't going to get taken. Can't prove that but I did work within the Russian economy for most of the 1990s and that's just the way I read it. It's also possible to think that the Kazakh assets alone (about 40% of the company) are worth the current valuation. So, anything that frees the Russian assets will be beneficial to the POLY price. My view though - and this is what informs the rest of this - is that it's that inability to pay a dividend which is really responsible for the share price crash. Don't forget, POLY was up at £20 back three years, at £12 just before this unpleasantness started. It's that the company simply cannot pay out to shareholders which has caused the crash - that's my contention at least. The Polymetal solution: What Polymetal has decided upon is to redomicile the company to Kazakhstan. The primary quote will be in Almaty, the company under Kazakh law. The announcement triggered a 20% fall in POLY in London - which was followed a day later by a 10% rise. I think that rise is the correct reaction, not the fall. For the re-domiciliation fixes what I see to be the problem. A Kazakh share can be traded across the border into Russia, those clearance systems do talk to each other. Therefore it will be possible to restart dividend payments. Which, as in the past, I expect to be substantial. Thus a significant rerating can be expected. Yes, it's true, Kazakh shares won't be to everyone's taste. I expect there to be a substantial discount to the valuation that would prevail in London absent all of the current unpleasantness. But those problems do exist. And I expect the Kazakh discount to be lower than the current London one - or, to say the same thing, once settled in the new domicile I expect Polymetal to be worth substantially more than it currently is. The logic is therefore buy Polymetal in London at the current price and wait some months for the redomicile and higher value. The London stock (or even the Kazakh for the adventurous) is real stock, directly in Polymetal. That will therefore definitively be exchanged for the new shares in the redomiciled company. My view: I think there will be a substantial revaluation of Polymetal once it is settled in the new domicile and with the new quote. The only way to take part in this is to buy in London then sit and wait and find out. Given the indeterminate time this is not a position that can - or should be - financed. It's also not a widows and orphans trade. It is very much a speculation - the contention being that the absence of the dividend will be corrected and that this will boost the price. The investor view: Thus I recommend Polymetal. Obviously in risk adjusted size, this isn't something to bet the house upon. Buy Polymetal, wait for the redomicile and my assumption is that a return to the dividend list will lead to a substantial revaluation. Note there's not much about numbers here but that's because Polymetal's problem doesn't stem from the numbers - operating margins, here gold price and so on. It's the political implications of the capital structure that is the problem, that's what they're solving. |
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