Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 25/2/2020 06:32

Just got this from research tree - The level of disclosed Short Interest in PLUS has changed materially.Short Interest has moved from 10.38% on the previous trading day to 1.85% today. That is a movement of -8.53 percentage points..... 10.28% sounds a little high

[thorpematt] 24/2/2020 22:32

Lots of traders will shortly be asking themselves: What should I buy now I am sat on all this cash?

And I suspect many will be looking for companies not affected by virus issues, but benefiting from volatile markets.

Some will naturally conclude that PLUS would be a rather obvious choice.

[markbelluk] 24/2/2020 21:17

O yea

Feb 24 2020, 16:29 851.038 2,349 849.40 850.60 Buy £19,990.88262 O

Great opportunity to top up

[cfro] 24/2/2020 17:51

Volatile markets = higher profits.

[intelligentinvestor1] 21/2/2020 11:10

Something to read ...
hxxps://www.cryptovibes.com/blog/2020/02/21/plus500-reports-results-of-meeting-regarding-massive-bonuses-for-directors/

[fxprotrader] 20/2/2020 15:45

not looking good

[djokovic1] 20/2/2020 15:38

Good point DB, agreed. What you are saying is that Plus's prospects are even better than what I have estimated. I have no problem with that ;)

[dumbbunny] 20/2/2020 14:36

djokovic1 - you raise a good point about no growth in active customers and new customers being flat at 20,000 but it's not as simple as that. Whilst rising new customers is generally positive (especially for diversification) it provides no indication to the value mix or quality of those customers. The number is, to some extent, a red-herring as the total future value is far more important than the aggregate number.

It's therefore, very possible to have flat (or even falling) new and active customer numbers at the same time as having increasing revenues. Indeed, this is exactly what is happening right now. We know this for two reasons; firstly management tells us "Plus500 continues to focus on recruitment of high-value customers" but secondly and more importantly the hard evidence provided on page seven of the prelims presentation shows new customer growth is coming from the most valuable customer geographical segment (ROW), at the expense of the least valuable segment (Europe). A switch in value is taking place.

In simple terms, those 20,000 customers being lost by churn aren't being replaced by 20,000 customers of a similar value but by better, higher-value customers. The new and active customer base is, over time, incrementally improving in quality and value.

Analyzing the numbers in themselves isn't enough and it is an error we see far too often from the professional analysts at Berenberg, Canaccord and Autonomous.

[hatfullofsky] 20/2/2020 11:59

No volume at all

[chucko1] 19/2/2020 16:47

They bought 11,000 each because they could not believe their luck. Nor could I, so I bought a few (not 11,000) in three separate batches.

[markbelluk] 19/2/2020 16:41

After selling circa $100m we now have quite a strong buy pattern...

Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
19-Feb-20 Buy Elad Even-Chen 830.93 GBX 11,000 52,460
19-Feb-20 Buy Asaf Elimelech 828.00 GBX 11,000 71,920
04-Dec-19 Buy Alon Gonen 763.40 GBX 500,000 4,065,183
16-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 731.80 GBX 41,235 3,565,183
16-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 720.80 GBX 53,625 3,565,183
16-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 699.90 GBX 139,689 3,565,183
15-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 728.30 GBX 163,276 3,190,945
15-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 717.80 GBX 124,915 3,190,945
14-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 689.40 GBX 113,107 2,777,839
14-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 666.50 GBX 67,171 2,777,839
14-Aug-19 Buy Elad Even-Chen 685.80 GBX 30,460 30,460
14-Aug-19 Buy Asaf Elimelech 682.00 GBX 460 60,920
14-Aug-19 Buy Asaf Elimelech 683.70 GBX 30,000 60,920
13-Aug-19 Buy David Zruia 680.00 GBX 12,000 12,000
13-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 695.60 GBX 107,344 2,129,092
13-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 678.80 GBX 808,970 2,129,092
13-Aug-19 Buy Alon Gonen 658.20 GBX 71,239 1,212,778
13-Aug-19 Buy Michael (Mark) Charles Fairbairn 657.91 GBX 5,000 67,000
13-Aug-19 Buy Michael (Mark) Charles Fairbairn 653.84 GBX 5,000 67,000
13-Aug-19 Buy Michael (Mark) Charles Fairbairn 658.65 GBX 5,000 67,000

[djokovic1] 19/2/2020 16:35

Haha good one, highly doubt they pushed the price down (that would be market manipulation) but whatever said and done, the insiders timing on both selling and buying has been great so I would go with what they are doing.

[markbelluk] 19/2/2020 16:30

markbelluk19 Feb '20 - 13:45 - 21618 of 21626 Edit
0 0 0
Alternatively the cynic in me says this is a tree shake setting up another large director buy

They are after all about as crafty as you can get!

LUCKY GUESS!

[djokovic1] 19/2/2020 15:52

CEO and CFO buy 11k shares each. Beautiful. Attests to the fact that the down move after earnings doesn't make any sense. Should move on higher now.

[hatfullofsky] 19/2/2020 15:50

Djoko agreed. Sector is up PLUS is down looks like we'll be treading water until the next update

[djokovic1] 19/2/2020 15:14

Yes frankly I think majority of the sell side don't really get the stock (Canaccord and Berenberg clearly don't) and in the past some of the price targets have been hilarious both to the upside when everything was great and downside.

Added some more today, though a little early at £8.4. I think one of the bear arguments seems to be that it is not showing growth in active customers. And that is true. The amount of customers that are churning each quarter, they acquire as new customer ~20k so total customers has been flat. Well the point is so what? Even if they don't grow from here on they should trade at at least 10x earnings or close to it (increased ARPU due to volatility like in current quarter is a cherry on top).

Based on my numbers (and Berenberg's for that matter) they currently trade at 6.4x 2020E (and 4.8x ex-cash) and that's assuming a low volatility year like last year though Q1 already seems to be strong. And generally higher volatility also brings about more new customers.

[wton1] 19/2/2020 15:11

Company will buy loads back at a nice price

[fxprotrader] 19/2/2020 14:11

its a dog stock, will go bust

[chucko1] 19/2/2020 14:05

They said from the outset on the results that they Ould not believe that the price had not fallen sharply. They appear to see a reduction in certain metrics as a big negative. They don't appear to have an in-depth understanding of what is driving PLUS. But time will out.

[markbelluk] 19/2/2020 13:55

Canacord have always had a sell at 546 for years, so moving to 541 isnt exactly significant?

[chucko1] 19/2/2020 13:54

Canaccord put out a PT of 541p. They detest this stock. It went out at 12.33pm today, I think.

All the more reason to buy. Which I did, twice.

[markbelluk] 19/2/2020 13:45

Alternatively the cynic in me says this is a tree shake setting up another large director buy

They are after all about as crafty as you can get

[hatfullofsky] 19/2/2020 13:27

Divi is only 32c so don't think it's related, however I do agree this usually provides a buy opportunity on ex-divi date. More to do with those morons in Berenberg and stagnating new accounts

[bulltradept] 19/2/2020 10:07

Exactly. Edit: Got quite close to your 8.15 fig.