Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 12/2/2020 20:48

Further reduction in shorts.
CZ Capital down to 0 35% which is a halving from the 0.7% position early January.

[djokovic1] 12/2/2020 10:29

Just listened to the call, overall management were positive on outlook. As mentioned in the update indicated that increased activity in H2 has continued into 2020 H1.

I have 2020E revenue at $380 (assuming Australia regs come into effect in H2)with NI of $140mio and EPS of $1.7 and £1.3 assuming exchange rate vs $ of 1.3

Implies PE on 2020E of 7.3 and excluding cash on the balance sheet that drops to 5.7 (Note: On the call they indicated cash could also be used to fund inorganic growth)

[3rd eye] 12/2/2020 09:32

In comparison IGG year 2020..........

P/E ratio 2020 17,0x
P/E ratio 2021 14,9x

market screener.com

[3rd eye] 12/2/2020 09:28

Looks very cheap.........

P/E ratio 2019 9,24x
P/E ratio 2020 8,43x

Market Screener.com

[3rd eye] 12/2/2020 09:26

PLUS.......improving after 2nd half performance.....



Share Buy Back prog:

Plus500 Ltd PLUS Liberum Capital Buy953.50 910.80 1,000.00-Reiterates share price target 1,000

[sailing john] 12/2/2020 09:00

Comparison with IG

IGG (Jun-Nov 19) PAT £82m - Market Cap £2500m (at 675p)
PLUS (Jul - Dec 19) PAT £77m - Market Cap £1030m (at 950p)
Bonkers!

Not saying they should be the same but much closer
Think IGG overvalued as only just covering Divi and PLUS undervalued as always!

[tomv33] 12/2/2020 08:46

What is the new dividence yield?

[chucko1] 12/2/2020 08:46

The shorts are being tested on their thesis as never before. Although they have endured extreme price volatility in the past, not always successfully (though very profitably in a small number of cases), the consistent trading performance as indicated makes it very expensive to oppose a 16% or so earnings yield.

[sailing john] 12/2/2020 08:38

My cautious model output for 2020 fwiw
Rev $380m - (circa $95-100/quarter adjusted for Aus tightening)
PAT $176m
eps 125p - (expect most returned via divi and buybacks - committed to 60%+)
PE 7.6 at 950p
nai SJ

[chucko1] 12/2/2020 08:28

The wheels were never coming off. One flat tyre, yes, but nothing more than that. In reality, the reporters misreported the misreporting more so than the report!

[the white house] 12/2/2020 08:27

Momentum the key word into this period

[base7] 12/2/2020 08:19

Better than we may have expected this time last year when it looked like the wheels were coming off .My only regret is not being greedier when buying back in mid 500s !

[base7] 12/2/2020 08:19

Better than we may have expected this time last year when it looked like the wheels were coming off .My only regret is not being greedier when buying back in mid 500s !

[sailing john] 12/2/2020 08:00

Steven - The Q4 numbers are in the text rather than a table
SJ

[djokovic1] 12/2/2020 07:46

Solid set of results. Most happy about the renewal of the share buyback. No reason for this to trade at 6x ex Cash PE should be closer to 10

[stevenlondon3] 12/2/2020 07:41

Slightly annoying, I cannot see the Q4 figures, only those for the six months compared to the first half.

[metis20] 12/2/2020 07:37

re post 21567 - and from today's FY RNS - so not 60% ...

"100% of 2019 net profit proposed to be distributed to shareholders

Final dividend of $40.8 million (FY 2018: $70.2 million), $0.3767 per share (FY 2018: $0.6191 per share);"

[hatfullofsky] 12/2/2020 07:19

I agree, a little better than the trading update plus :

"Positive momentum has continued into 2020"
All FY19 profit being re-paid to shareholders
inc additional $30m Buy back
Really $300m in cash

Australia is the only concern @ 15% of revenue, could equate to $18m net profit

I don't see anything here that will hold this back, 1000p see you soon.

Of course there may be the usual retrace after results but I expect a quick recovery if that does happen

[nw99] 12/2/2020 07:03

Looks pretty good at a quick glance

[sailing john] 11/2/2020 14:46

Don't forget divi will be a little lower from now as returning money via buybacks

From 1H "Revised distribution policy introduced from next reporting date (H2 2019), to return 60% of net profit to shareholders, with at least 50% of this core distribution being through dividends"

So I'm expecting about 20p (26c) divi for 2H (30% of PAT) giving around 41p for the year.
But added to that is the circa 5% return from buybacks built into the shareprice

I prefer this approach as I can avoid Cap gains via my ISA but not withholding tax

Hopefully another $50m buyback prog for 1H 2020

SJ

[sailing john] 11/2/2020 10:43

Another small reduction in shorts.

Results tomorrow.
Headlines already published but detail will be interesting.
I'm expecting a positive statement on current trading given volatility.
GL SJ

[riverman77] 06/2/2020 20:20

Boom in Tesla share price reminiscent of bitcoin craze a couple of years ago. Reports of records number of new users opening broker accounts. Could be good for PLUS. Interestingly, if I Google 'Buy Tesla shares', Plus500 is the first ad that pops up.

[sailing john] 05/2/2020 16:43

And another decrease in shorts. Tiny but right direction!

[sailing john] 04/2/2020 08:20

Further reduction in shorts reported